Monte Carlo simulation of streamflow of the Salt River, Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Evaluations of the impact of climate change (such as a greenhouse effect) upon water resources should represent both the expected change and the uncertainty in that expectation. Since water resources such as streamflow and reservoir levels depend on a variety of factors, each of which is subject to significant uncertainty, it is desirable to formulate methods of representing that uncertainty in the forcing factors and from this determine the uncertainty in the response variables of interest. We report here progress in the representation of the uncertainty in climate upon the uncertainty in the estimated hydrologic response.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.

Organoleptic, biochemical and bacteriological aspects of the low cost tunnel dried fish products

Studies were conducted on the organoleptic, biochemical and bacteriological aspects of three dried fish products produced from two different model of low cost solar tunnel dryer. The overall quality of the products obtained from both dryers was excellent. Sixty minutes soaking showed the maximum water reconstitution of the products with values between 66.82 to 75.28% and 71.98 to 78.09% in dryer 1 & 2 respectively. The highest reconstitution was obtained from Silver Jew fish (75.28-78.09%) and lowest from Bombay duck (66.86-71.98%) from both dryers. The average moisture, protein, lipid and ash content of the dried products were 11.8-15.0%, 57.32-68.49%, 6.08-8.62% and 12.25-14.88% respectively in fish in dryer 1 and dryer 2. The TVB-N values were in the range of 24.3 to 30.9 in dryer 1 and 22.1 to 28.2 mg/100 g samples in dryer 2. The highest values were obtained from Bombay duck and lowest value in Silver Jew fish in both dryers. The peroxide values varied from 14.1 to 16.9% in dryer 1 and 13.3 to 16.4% in dryer 2. The highest peroxide value was obtained from Ribbon fish and lowest from Silver Jew fish. Total bacterial load varied in the range of 6.6x10⁴— 8.6x10⁴ CFU/g in dryer 1 and 2.54x10⁴ to 4.9x10⁴ CFU/g in dryer 2. The highest value was obtained from Ribbon fish and lowest from Silver Jew fish.