National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) research highlights in the Chesapeake Bay

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the United States. It is a unique and valuable national treasure because of its ecological, recreational, economic and cultural benefits. The problems facing the Bay are well known and extensively documented, and are largely related to human uses of the watershed and resources within the Bay. Over the past several decades as the origins of the Chesapeake’s problems became clear, citizens groups and Federal, State, and local governments have entered into agreements and worked together to restore the Bay’s productivity and ecological health. In May 2010, President Barack Obama signed Executive Order number 13508 that tasked a team of Federal agencies to develop a way forward in the protection and restoration of the Chesapeake watershed. Success of both State and Federal efforts will depend on having relevant, sound information regarding the ecology and function of the system as the basis of management and decision making. In response to the executive order, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) has compiled an overview of its research in Chesapeake Bay watershed. NCCOS has a long history of Chesapeake Bay research, investigating the causes and consequences of changes throughout the watershed’s ecosystems. This document presents a cross section of research results that have advanced the understanding of the structure and function of the Chesapeake and enabled the accurate and timely prediction of events with the potential to impact both human communities and ecosystems. There are three main focus areas: changes in land use patterns in the watershed and the related impacts on contaminant and pathogen distribution and concentrations; nutrient inputs and algal bloom events; and habitat use and life history patterns of species in the watershed. Land use changes in the Chesapeake Bay watershed have dramatically changed how the system functions. A comparison of several subsystems within the Bay drainages has shown that water quality is directly related to land use and how the land use affects ecosystem health of the rivers and streams that enter the Chesapeake Bay. Across the Chesapeake as a whole, the rivers that drain developed areas, such as the Potomac and James rivers, tend to have much more highly contaminated sediments than does the mainstem of the Bay itself. In addition to what might be considered traditional contaminants, such as hydrocarbons, new contaminants are appearing in measurable amounts. At fourteen sites studied in the Bay, thirteen different pharmaceuticals were detected. The impact of pharmaceuticals on organisms and the people who eat them is still unknown. The effects of water borne infections on people and marine life are known, however, and the exposure to certain bacteria is a significant health risk. A model is now available that predicts the likelihood of occurrence of a strain of bacteria known as Vibrio vulnificus throughout Bay waters.

A habitat-use model to determine essential fish habitat for juvenile brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) in Galveston Bay, Texas

A density prediction model for juvenile brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) was developed by using three bottom types, five salinity zones, and four seasons to quantify patterns of habitat use in Galveston Bay, Texas. Sixteen years of quantitative density data were used. Bottom types were vegetated marsh edge, submerged aquatic vegetation, and shallow nonvegetated bottom. Multiple regression was used to develop density estimates, and the resultant formula was then coupled with a geographical information system (GIS) to provide a spatial mosaic (map) of predicted habitat use. Results indicated that juvenile brown shrimp (<100 mm) selected vegetated habitats in salinities of 15−25 ppt and that seagrasses were selected over marsh edge where they co-occurred. Our results provide a spatially resolved estimate of high-density areas that will help designate essential fish habitat (EFH) in Galveston Bay. In addition, using this modeling technique, we were able to provide an estimate of the overall population of juvenile brown shrimp (<100 mm) in shallow water habitats within the bay of approximately 1.3 billion. Furthermore, the geographic range of the model was assessed by plotting observed (actual) versus expected (model) brown shrimp densities in three other Texas bays. Similar habitat-use patterns were observed in all three bays—each having a coefficient of determination >0.50. These results indicate that this model may have a broader geographic application and is a plausible approach in refining current EFH designations for all Gulf of Mexico estuaries with similar geomorphological and hydrological characteristics.

A numerical model for prediction of oil, trajectory due to extraction activity in the north coasts of the Persian Gulf

This thesis considers a three- dimensional numerical model based on 3-D Navier— Stokes and continuity equations involving various wind speeds (North west), water surface levels, horizontal shier stresses, eddy viscosity, densities of oil and gas condensate- water mixture flows. The model is used to simulate the prediction of the surface movement of oil and gas condensate slicks from spill accident in the north coasts of Persian Gulf.

Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.