Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

Distribution, Abundance, and Biological Characteristics of Groundfish off the Coast of Washington, Oregon, and California, 1977-1986

We compare results of bottom trawl surveys off Washington, Oregon, and California in 1977, 1980, 1983, and 1986 to discern trends in population abundance, distribution, and biology. Catch per unit of effort, area-swept biomass estimates, and age and length compositions for 12 commercially important west coast groundfishes are presented to illustrate trends over the lO-year period. We discuss the precision, accuracy, and statistical significance of observed trends in abundance estimates. The influence of water temperature on the distribution of groundfishes is also briefly examined. Abundance estimates of canary rockfish, Sebastes pinniger, and yellowtail rockfish, S. Jlavidus, declined during the study period; greater declines were observed in Pacific ocean perch, S. alutus, lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus, and arrowtooth flounder, Atheresthes stomias. Biomass estimates of Pacific hake, Merluccius productus, and English, rex, and Dover soles (Pleuronectes vetulus, Errex zachirus, and Microstomus pacificus) increased, while bocaccio, S. paucispinis, and chilipepper, S. goodei, were stable. Sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria, biomass estimates increased markedly from 1977 to 1980 and declined moderately thereafter. Precision was lowest for rockfishes, lingcod, and sablefish; it was highest for flatfishes because they were uniformly distributed. The accuracy of survey estimates could be gauged only for yellowtail and canary rockfish and sablefish. All fishery-based analyses produced much larger estimates of abundance than bottom trawl surveys-indicative of the true catchability of survey trawls. Population trends from all analyses compared well except in canary rockfish, the species that presents the greatest challenge to obtaining reasonable precision and one that casts doubts on the usefulness of bottom trawl surveys for estimating its abundance. (PDF file contains 78 pages.)

Bacterial flora of the gut of the African snakehead, Channa obscura (Pisces: Channidae)

A qualitative and quantitative investigation of the bacterial flora of the gut of the African snakehead, Channa obscura was undertaken. The types of bacteria isolated from the different parts of the gut of C. obscura include Pseudomonas, Streptococcus, Citrobacter and Proteus. The coliform (Escherichia coli, Enterobacter) and some other Enterobacteriaceae such as Salmonella were also present. The stomach and intestine were found to have a preponderance of Pseudomonas and Vibrio species. Klebsiella sp. and Bacillus sp. (only in the pyloric caeca) were also isolated. On the whole, the correlation coefficients of the two incubation temperatures showed a high statistical significance. Thus the bacterial load of the gut of C. obscura has been shown as a function of temperature

The nutritional status of pre-school children, Kainji Lake communities, Nigeria: a follow-up survey

This survey was carried out to provide the Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (KLFPP), whose overall goal is the improvement of the standard of living of fishing communities around Kainji Lake, Nigeria, managing the fisheries on a sustainable basis, with follow-up data for long-term monitoring and evaluation of the overall project goal. A similar survey, conducted in 1996, provided the baseline against which data from the current survey was evaluated. In a cross-sectional survey, anthropometric data was collected from 576 children aged 3-60 months in 282 fisherfolk households around the southern sector of Kainji Lake, Nigeria. In addition, data was collected on the nutritional status and fertility of the mothers, vaccination coverage of children and child survival indicators. For control purposes, 374 children and 181 mothers from non-fishing households around Kainji Lake were likewise covered by the survey. A standardised questionnaire was used to collect relevant data, while anthropometric measurements were made using appropriate equipment. Data compilation and analysis was carried out with a specially designed Microsoft Access application, using NCHS reference data for the analysis of anthropometric measurements. Statistical significance testing was done using EPI-INFO" software. The results of the follow-up survey indicate a slight increase in the percentage of stunted pre-school children in fishing households around Kainji Lake, from 40% in 1996 to 41% in 1999. This increase is however not statistically significant (p= 0.704). Over the same period, the percentage of stunted children in non-fishing households increased from 37% to 39% (p= 0.540), which is also not statistically significant. Likewise, there were no statistically significant differences between the 1996 and 1999 results for the prevalence of either wasted or underweight children in fishing households. The same applies to children from non-fishing households. In addition, vaccination coverage remains very low while infant and child mortality rates continue to be extremely high with about 1 in 5 children dying before their fifth birthday. There has been no perceptible and lasting improvement in the standard of living of fishing households over the course of the second project phase as indicated by the persistently high prevalence of stunting. The situation is the same for the control group, indicating that for the region as a whole, a number of factors beyond the immediate influence of the project continue to negatively impact on the standard of living. The results also show that the project activities have not had any negative long-term effect on the nutritional status of the beneficiaries. (PDF contains 44 pages)

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.