In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

From organism to population: the role of life-history theory

The role of life-history theory in population and evolutionary analyses is outlined. In both cases general life histories can be analysed, but simpler life histories need fewer parameters for their description. The simplest case, of semelparous (breed-once-then-die) organisms, needs only three parameters: somatic growth rate, mortality rate and fecundity. This case is analysed in detail. If fecundity is fixed, population growth rate can be calculated direct from mortality rate and somatic growth rate, and isoclines on which population growth rate is constant can be drawn in a ”state space” with axes for mortality rate and somatic growth rate. In this space density-dependence is likely to result in a population trajectory from low density, when mortality rate is low and somatic growth rate is high and the population increases (positive population growth rate) to high density, after which the process reverses to return to low density. Possible effects of pollution on this system are discussed. The state-space approach allows direct population analysis of the twin effects of pollution and density on population growth rate. Evolutionary analysis uses related methods to identify likely evolutionary outcomes when an organism's genetic options are subject to trade-offs. The trade-off considered here is between somatic growth rate and mortality rate. Such a trade-off could arise because of an energy allocation trade-off if resources spent on personal defence (reducing mortality rate) are not available for somatic growth rate. The evolutionary implications of pollution acting on such a trade-off are outlined.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

A Comparison of Two Methods for Enhancing the Recovery of Seagrasses into Propellor Scars: Mechanical Injection of a Nutrient and Growth Hormone Solution vs. Defecation by Roosting Seabirds: Final Report.

Based on the recovery rates for Thalassia testudinum measured in this study for scars of these excavation depths and assuming a linear recovery horizon, we estimate that it would take ~ 6.9 years (95% CI. = 5.4 to 9.6 years) for T. testudinum to return to the same density as recorded for the adjacent undisturbed population. The application of water soluble fertilizers and plant growth hormones by mechanical injection into the sediments adjacent to ten propellor scars at Lignumvitae State Botanical Site did not significantly increase the recovery rate of Thalassia testudinum or Halodule wrightii. An alternative method of fertilization and restoration of propellor scars was also tested by a using a method of “compressed succession” where Halodule wrightii is substituted for T. testudinum in the initial stages of restoration. Bird roosting stakes were placed among H.wrightii bare root plantings in prop scars to facilitate the defecation of nitrogen and phosphorus enriched feces. In contrast to the fertilizer injection method, the bird stakes produced extremely high recovery rates of transplanted H. wrightii. We conclude that use of a fertilizer/hormone injection machine in the manner described here is not a feasible means of enhancing T. testudinum recovery in propellor scars on soft bottom carbonate sediments. Existing techniques such as the bird stake approach provide a reliable, and inexpensive alternative method that should be considered for application to restoration of seagrasses in these environments. Document contains 40 pages)

Pilot investigation of remote sensing for intertidal oyster mapping in coastal South Carolina: a methods comparison

South Carolina’s oyster reefs are a major component of the coastal landscape. Eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica are an important economic resource to the state and serve many essential functions in the environment, including water filtration, creek bank stabilization and habitat for other plants and animals. Effective conservation and management of oyster reefs is dependent on an understanding of their abundance, distribution, condition, and change over time. In South Carolina, over 95% of the state’s oyster habitat is intertidal. The current intertidal oyster reef database for South Carolina was developed by field assessment over several years. This database was completed in the early 1980s and is in need of an update to assess resource/habitat status and trends across the state. Anthropogenic factors such as coastal development and associated waterway usage (e.g., boat wakes) are suspected of significantly altering the extent and health of the state’s oyster resources. In 2002 the NOAA Coastal Services Center’s (Center) Coastal Remote Sensing Program (CRS) worked with the Marine Resources Division of the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources (SCDNR) to develop methods for mapping intertidal oyster reefs along the South Carolina coast using remote sensing technology. The objective of this project was to provide SCDNR with potential methodologies and approaches for assessing oyster resources in a more efficiently than could be accomplished through field digitizing. The project focused on the utility of high-resolution aerial imagery and on documenting the effectiveness of various analysis techniques for accomplishing the update. (PDF contains 32 pages)