Invasionsoft: a web-enabled tool for invasive species colonization predictions

Predicting and averting the spread of invasive species is a core focus of resource managers in all ecosystems. Patterns of invasion are difficult to forecast, compounded by a lack of user-friendly species distribution model (SDM) tools to help managers focus control efforts. This paper presents a web-based cellular automata hybrid modeling tool developed to study the invasion pattern of lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in the western Atlantic and is a natural extension our previous lionfish study. Our goal is to make publically available this hybrid SDM tool and demonstrate both a test case (P. volitans/miles) and a use case (Caulerpa taxifolia). The software derived from the model, titled Invasionsoft, is unique in its ability to examine multiple default or user-defined parameters, their relation to invasion patterns, and is presented in a rich web browser-based GUI with integrated results viewer. The beta version is not species-specific and includes a default parameter set that is tailored to the marine habitat. Invasionsoft is provided as copyright protected freeware at http://www.invasionsoft.com.

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Habitat availability and heterogeneity and the Indo-Pacific warm pool as predictors of marine species richness in the tropical Indo-Pacific

Range overlap patterns were observed in a dataset of 10,446 expert-derived marine species distribution maps, including 8,295 coastal fishes, 1,212 invertebrates (crustaceans and molluscs), 820 reef-building corals, 50 seagrasses and 69 mangroves. Distributions of tropical Indo-Pacific shore fishes revealed a concentration of species richness in the northern apex and central region of the Coral Triangle epicenter of marine biodiversity. This pattern was supported by distributions of invertebrates and habitat-forming primary producers. Habitat availability, heterogeneity and sea surface temperatures were highly correlated with species richness across spatial grains ranging from 23,000 to 5,100,000 km2 with and without correction for autocorrelation. The consistent retention of habitat variables in our predictive models supports the area of refuge hypothesis which posits reduced extinction rates in the Coral Triangle. This does not preclude support for a center of origin hypothesis that suggests increased speciation in the region may contribute to species richness. In addition, consistent retention of sea surface temperatures in models suggests that available kinetic energy may also be an important factor in shaping patterns of marine species richness. Kinetic energy may hasten rates of both extinction and speciation. The position of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool to the east of the Coral Triangle in central Oceania and a pattern of increasing species richness from this region into the central and northern parts of the Coral Triangle suggests peripheral speciation with enhanced survival in the cooler parts of the Coral Triangle that also have highly concentrated available habitat. These results indicate that conservation of habitat availability and heterogeneity is important to reduce extinction and that changes in sea surface temperatures may influence the evolutionary potential of the region.

Mussel Community Studies [Year Three].

The communities associated with Mytilus californianus (mussel) beds from 20 geographic sites in southern California were examined. The study areas included six mainland sites - Government Point, Goleta Point, Ventura, Corona del Mar, Carlsbad, and San Diego,and two sites on opposite sides of seven offshore islands - San Miguel Island, Santa Rosa Island, Santa Cruz Island, Anacapa Island, San Nicholas Island, Santa Cruz Island and San Clemente Island. : The mussel communities from all areas contributed to the master species list which now encompasses conservatively, 610 species of animals and 141 species of algae. The most diverse collection came from Cat Rock, Anacapa Island where the mussel beds supported 174 species of invertebrates. The lowest diversity was recorded for mussel beds from Ben Weston, Santa Catalina Island which contained 46 species. In general, the island mussel beds supported a greater diversity of both animals and plants. Mussel community samples were collected from upper and lower intertidal areas occupied by the mussel beds within a locality. Community differences in both composition and abundance were associated with these collections. Overall. community similarity analysis revealed five major patterns which corresponded to characteristic species assemblages occupying the mussel beds from the various geographic areas. The patterns included: (1) clusters of localities which display a north-south geographic pattern with respect to the similarity of their respective mussel communities, (2) a separation of selected island and mainland communities because of dissimilarities in their species composition, (3) differences between mussel communities. on opposite sides of the offshore islands, (4) clusters of species whose highest abundances characterize selected localities, (5) species groups ubiquitous to all mussel beds examined. The results of the community analysis further suggest that predictions can be made delineating the probable mussel community inhabitants of areas not sampled. The species distribution patterns observed appear to correspond in part to the influence of currents and water masses which bear planktonic larvae and impinge on selected localities. The most important mussel bed features associated with community differences were quantitative and qualitative differences in the potential microhabitats. Those features associate~ with greater species diversity include the pore base of coarse fraction shell and rock debris, skewness and kurtosis of the sediment grain-size distributions and mussel bed thickness. Those features associated with lower species diversity included the quantity of tar. and rock and shell debris trapped within the mussel bed. (PDF contains 51 pages)

A taxonomic guide to the mysids of the South Atlantic Bight.

Following the examination of extensive collections from the National Museum of Natural History (NMNH), the Southeastern Regional Taxonomic Center (SERTC), and other regional institutions, 18 species of the family Mysidae are recognized and described from the South Atlantic Bight (Cape Lookout, North Carolina to Cape Canaveral, Florida). This report includes synonymies of previous records, as well as new species distribution records. Previous regional accounts of Metamysidopsis munda and Metamysidopsis mexicana are attributed to Metamysidopsis swifti. New regional records are established for Amathimysis brattegardi, Heteromysis beetoni, and Siriella thompsonii. Two other species tentatively identified as Amathimysis sp. (nr. serrata) and Mysidopsis sp. (cf. mortenseni) may represent new taxa. Neobathymysis renoculata is included and discussed as a potential regional species. An illustrated key to the species currently known from the South Atlantic Bight is presented. Relevant taxonomic, distributional, and ecological information is also included for each species. (PDF file contains 45 pages.)

Les gasteropodes aquatiques associés aux plantes flottantes

The gasteropods sampling from roots system of floating plants Pistia striatiotes, Salvinia molesta, Salvinia nymphellula, Eichhornia crassipes, show that those biotopes are not azoic. We collected 18 species of gasteropods. The mapping of the species collected has been realized and permitted to identify three regions and three groups of gasteropods: 1 The gasteropods collected between 5° and 7° South; 2 The gasteropods collected between 8° and 10° North; 3 The widespread gasteropods. The species distribution according to latitude shows that 90% of species are found between 5° and 6° South, 65% between 6° and 7° South, 20% between 7° and 8°, 20% between 8° and 9° and 15% between 9° and 10° North.

The River Lune strategic stock assessment survey 1991 with particular reference to salmonids

In the past stock assessment surveys were generally reactive in response to a particular problem e.g. a pollution incident and as such were limited in the information they provided. A programme of strategic stock assessment would be more beneficial, providing up to date information on the status and composition of the stock. On a national level this could reveal trends in population dynamics and enable comparisons to be made between key rivers and between regions. The Stock Assessment Task Group (1991) has recommended annual strategic surveys for juvenile salmonids and triennial strategic surveys for coarse fish and non- migratory salmonids. The aim of this pilot study was to gain information on species distribution and their relative abundance within the River Lune catchment, and to compare the findings with the surveys carried out between 1981-1985. This would provide valuable information on the current status of the stock and provide an indication of the resources required to conduct such strategic surveys on other river catchments in the North West Region of the National Rivers Authority.

Report on the 1992 stock assessment of the Wyre catchment

The aim of this study was to assess the status of the juvenile salmonid and coarse fish populations of the Wyre catchment. Emphasis was placed on an examination of the distribution of spawning and nursery areas for salmonids within the study area and an assessment of the status of juvenile salmonid stocks. The species distribution and spawning areas for other fish species were also identified where possible and the status of the Wyre coarse fishery, downstream of Churchtown Weir, assessed. This report examines the results of stock assessment surveys carried out in the Wyre catchment between 2/06/92 and 11/08/92. Forty-six sites were surveyed from Tarnbrook Wyre (SD. 598577) and Marshaw Wyre (SD. 614541) downstream to St Michaels (SD. 465411). Flow, habitat and in-river obstructions have been shown to affect juvenile salmonid densities. A habitat description is provided for each site studied during the course of this study.

Spotted Seals, Phoca largha, in Alaska

The worldwide literature on management of spotted seals, Phoca largha, was reviewed and updated, and aerial surveys weref lown in 1992 and 1993 to determine the species' distribution and abundance in U.S. waters. In April, spotted seals were found only in the Bering Sea ice front. In June, they were seen along deteriorating ice floes and fast ice in Norton Sound. Surveys along most of Alaska's western coast in August and September found over 2,500 spotted seals in Kuskokwim Bay and concentrations of 100-400 seals around Nunivak Island, Scammon Bay, Golovnin Bay/Norton Sound, Cape Espenberg/Kotzebue Sound, and Kasegaluk Lagoon. All of these sites have been used by spotted seals in the past. The sum of the highest counts, irrespective of year, was 3,570 seals (CV =0.06). This is not an abundance estimate for all spotted seals in the Bering Sea, because it does not account for animals in the water, and we did not survey the Asian coast and some islands. Also, spotted seals and harbor seals, Phoca vitulina, are too similar in appearance to be identified accurately from the air, so our results probably include a mix of these species where their ranges overlap.

The distribution of Corixidae in relation to the water quality of British lakes: A monitoring model

This article is an attempt to devise a method of using certain species of Corixidae as a basis for the assessment of general water quality in lakes. An empirical graphical representation of the distribution of populations or communities of Corixidae in relation to conductivity, based mainly on English and Welsh lakes, is used as a predictive monitoring model to establish the "expected" normal community at a given conductivity, representing the total ionic concentration of the water body. A test sample from another lake of known conductivity is then compared with "expected" community. The "goodness of fit" is examined visually or by calculation of indices of similarity based on the relative proportions of the constituent species of each community. A computer programme has been devised for this purpose.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

Relationship between water quality, watermilfoil frequency, and weevil distribution in the State of Washington

During the summer of 1997, we surveyed 50 waterbodies in Washington State to determine the distribution of the aquatic weevil Euhrychiopsis lecontei Dietz. We collected data on water quality and the frequency of occurrence of watermilfoil species within selected watermilfoil beds to compare the waterbodies and determine if they were related to the distribution E. lecontei . We found E. lecontei in 14 waterbodies, most of which were in eastern Washington. Only one lake with weevils was located in western Washington. Weevils were associated with both Eurasian ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and northern watermilfoil ( M. sibiricum K.). Waterbodies with E. lecontei had significantly higher ( P < 0.05) pH (8.7 ± 0.2) (mean ± 2SE), specific conductance (0.3 ± 0.08 mS cm -1 ) and total alkalinity (132.4 ± 30.8 mg CaCO 3 L -1 ). We also found that weevil presence was related to surface water temperature and waterbody location ( = 24.3, P ≤ 0.001) and of all the models tested, this model provided the best fit (Hosmer- Lemeshow goodness-of-fit = 4.0, P = 0.9). Our results suggest that in Washington State E. lecontei occurs primarily in eastern Washington in waterbodies with pH ≥ 8.2 and specific conductance ≥ 0.2 mS cm -1 . Furthermore, weevil distribution appears to be correlated with waterbody location (eastern versus western Washington) and surface water temperature.