Investigation into the meteorological aspects of the variations in the level of Lake Victoria

The level of Lake Victoria has, since 1961, reached a height which caused serious flood damage. Already the financial implications are considerable for Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. If further rises can be anticipated, expenditure on flood control measures to the tune of several million pounds sterling must be envisaged. If such rises should lead to uncontrolled discharge at the Owen Falls Dam site because of overshooting, downstream districts of Uganda and the Sudan may be seriously flooded. All this merits a thorough study, and any indication of the future behaviour of lake levels, even when associated with a low probability, must be taken into account. In these circumstances the Water Development Department of Kenya approached the East African Meteorological Department in November, 1964, on behalf of all parties concerned with the request to study the meteorological background of the Iake level variation, with a view to forecasting future behaviour.

Preparation of environmental monitoring plan pattern for surface water quality in Iran (Case study: Gharehsou River)

Using water quality management programs is a necessary and inevitable way for preservation and sustainable use of water resources. One of the important issues in determining the quality of water in rivers is designing effective quality control networks, so that the measured quality variables in these stations are, as far as possible, indicative of overall changes in water quality. One of the methods to achieve this goal is increasing the number of quality monitoring stations and sampling instances. Since this will dramatically increase the annual cost of monitoring, deciding on which stations and parameters are the most important ones, along with increasing the instances of sampling, in a way that shows maximum change in the system under study can affect the future decision-making processes for optimizing the efficacy of extant monitoring network, removing or adding new stations or parameters and decreasing or increasing sampling instances. This end, the efficiency of multivariate statistical procedures was studied in this thesis. Multivariate statistical procedure, with regard to its features, can be used as a practical and useful method in recognizing and analyzing rivers’ pollution and consequently in understanding, reasoning, controlling, and correct decision-making in water quality management. This research was carried out using multivariate statistical techniques for analyzing the quality of water and monitoring the variables affecting its quality in Gharasou river, in Ardabil province in northwest of Iran. During a year, 28 physical and chemical parameters were sampled in 11 stations. The results of these measurements were analyzed by multivariate procedures such as: Cluster Analysis (CA), Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Factor Analysis (FA), and Discriminant Analysis (DA). Based on the findings from cluster analysis, principal component analysis, and factor analysis the stations were divided into three groups of highly polluted (HP), moderately polluted (MP), and less polluted (LP) stations Thus, this study illustrates the usefulness of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and interpretation of complex data sets, and in water quality assessment, identification of pollution sources/factors and understanding spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management. This study also shows the effectiveness of these techniques for getting better information about the water quality and design of monitoring network for effective management of water resources. Therefore, based on the results, Gharasou river water quality monitoring program was developed and presented.

Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.