TUNPOP, a computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and the surface tuna fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

A simulation model of the dynamics of Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens)

The article describes the key elements of a model simulating the dynamics of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Peruvian upwelling system (4 degrees to 14 degrees South). This model, based on coupled differential equations, is parametrized mainly using empirical data and functional relationships presented in two volumes issued by ICLARM in 1987 and 1989, and may thus be viewed as test of the hypotheses presented therein. Results to date suggest that present knowledge of mechanisms controlling the anchoveta stock is essentially consistent, and sufficient to build a model reflecting essential features of the stock biomass and recruitment dynamics.

TUNPOP: A simulation of the dynamics and structure of the yellowfin tuna stock and surface fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Three distinct versions of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacores, stock and surface tuna fishery, are used to reveal mechanisms which appear to have a significant effect on the fishery dynamics. Real data on this fishery are used to make deductions on the distribution of the fish and to show how that distribution might influence events in the fishery. The most important result of the paper is that the concept of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna stock as a homogeneous unit is inadequate to represent the recent history of the fishery. Inferences are made on the size and distribution of the underlying stock as well as its potential yield to the surface fishery as a result of alterations in the level and distribution of the effort. SPANISH: Se han empleado tres versiones diferentes de TUNP0P, un modelo de simulación de la computadora (basado en la estructura de la edad) de la población y la pesca epipelágica del atún aleta amarilla, Tbunnus albacares, del Pacífico oriental, para revelar los mecanismos que parecen tener un efecto importante en la dinámica pesquera. Se emplean los datos verdaderos de esta pesca para hacer deducciones sobre la distribución de los peces y para mostrar cómo puede influir esta distribución en los eventos de pesca. La conclusión más importante de este estudio es que el concepto de que la población del aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental es una unidad homogénea, es inadecuado para representar la historia reciente de pesca. Se teoriza sobre la talla y distribución de la población subyacente como también sobre su producción potencial en la pesca epipelágica al cambiar el nivel y distribución del esfuerzo.

A bio-socioeconomic model for the management of the small pelagic fishery in northwest Peninsular Malaysia

The article was extracted from the author's dissertation entitled "Management of small pelagic fisheries on the northwest coast of Peninsular Malaysia: a bio-socioeconomic simulation analysis". The basic structure and uses of this simulation model are presented here.

Stock assessment of the gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery

A stock assessment of the gulf menhaden. Brevoortia patronus, fishery was conducted with data on purse-seine landings from 1946 to 1985 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1985. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, yield-per-recruit, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year-class size, and fishing mortality rates. During the period studied, an average of 27% of age-l fish and 55% of age-2 and age-3 fish were taken by the fishery, and 54% for age-I and 38% for age-2 and -3 fish were lost annually to natural causes. Annual yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 6.9 to 19.3 g, with recent mean conditions averaging 12.2 g since 1978. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 620 to 700 kilometric tons. Recruits to age-I ranged from 8.3 to 41.8 billion fish for 1964-82. Although there was substantial scatter about the fitted curves, Ricker·type spawner-recruit relationships were found suitable for use in a population simulation model. Estimates of MSY from population simulation model runs ranged from 705 to 825 kilometric tons with F -multiples of the mean rate of fishing ranging from 1.0 to 1.5. Recent harvests in excess of the historical MSY may not be detrimental to the gulf menhaden stock. However, one should not expect long-term harvesting above the historical MSY because of the short life span of gulf menhaden and possible changes from currently favorable environmental conditions supporting high recruitment.(PDF file contains 24 pages.)

The role of mate guarding, Male Size and Male Investment on Individual Reproductive Success in the Blue Crab, Callinectes Sapidus.

Male blue crabs, Callinectes Sapidus, guard their mates before and after mating, suggesting that the conditions regulating both types of mate guarding dictate individual reproductive success. I tested the hypothesis that large male blue crabs have advantages in sexual competition using experimental manipulations, a simulation model, and field data on crabs from mid-Chesapeake Bay between 1991-1994.

Simulated Economic Impact of TED Regulations on Selected Vessels in the Texas Shrimp Fishery

Shrimp fishermen trawling in the Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic inadvertently capture and kill sea turtles which are classified as endangered species. Recent legislation requires the use of a Turtle Excluder Device(TED) which, when in place in the shrimp trawl, reduces sea turtle mortality. The impact of the TED on shrimp production is not known. This intermediate analysis of the TED regulations using an annual firm level simulation model indicated that the average Texas shrimp vessel had a low probability of being an economic success before regulations were enacted. An assumption that the TED regulations resulted in decreased production aggravated this condition and the change in Ending Net Worth and Net Present Value of Ending Net Worth before and after a TED was placed in the net was significant at the 5 percent level. However, the difference in the Internal Rate of Return for the TED and non-TED simulations was not significant unless the TED caused a substantial change in catch. This analysis did not allow for interactions between the fishermen in the shrimp industry, an assumption which could significantly alter the impact of TED use on the catch and earnings of the individual shrimp vessel.

Bycatch in marine fisheries

A review of the significant contributions in the peer-reviewed literature indicates that the discarding of marine fish known as bycatch remains one of the most significant problem facing fisheries managers. Bycatch has negative affects on marine biodiversity, is ripe with ethical and moral issues surrounding the waste of life from increased juvenile fish mortality, hinders commercial profitability and recreational satisfaction, increases management costs, and results in socio-cultural problems and conflicts. While appearing to have a simple conservation engineering solution, reducing or eliminating bycatch in marine fishing operations given the presently existing regulated open access management environment is demonstrated to actually be so complex that its effects can appear to be counter-intuitive. An ecosystem simulation model that explicitly incorporates the human and biological dimensions is used to evaluate proposed bycatch reduction regulations for two fishing fleets exploiting three out of seven species of fish, each with ten cohorts, in two resource areas. One of the fishing fleets is divided into two components representing commercial fishermen and recreational anglers. The seven fish species represent predator, prey, and competitor behaviors and one stock is treated as an endangered species. The results displayed in a series of figures demonstrate the potential unintended effects of simplistic management approaches and the need for a holistic and comprehensive approach to bycatch management. That is, an ecosystem model that explicitly incorporates socio-cultural and biophysical attributes into a common framework allows the magnitude and direction of behavioral responses to be predicted based on changes in governance or biophysical constraints to determine if management goals and objectives have been obtained through the use of quantitative metrics.

The effects of size-selective fisheries on the stock dynamics of and sperm limitation in sex-changing fish

Fisheries models have traditionally focused on patterns of growth, fecundity, and survival of fish. However, reproductive rates are the outcome of a variety of interconnected factors such as life-history strategies, mating patterns, population sex ratio, social interactions, and individual fecundity and fertility. Behaviorally appropriate models are necessary to understand stock dynamics and predict the success of management strategies. Protogynous sex-changing fish present a challenge for management because size-selective fisheries can drastically reduce reproductive rates. We present a general framework using an individual-based simulation model to determine the effect of life-history pattern, sperm production, mating system, and management strategy on stock dynamics. We apply this general approach to the specific question of how size-selective fisheries that remove mainly males will impact the stock dynamics of a protogynous population with fixed sex change compared to an otherwise identical dioecious population. In this dioecious population, we kept all aspects of the stock constant except for the pattern of sex determination (i.e. whether the species changes sex or is dioecious). Protogynous stocks with fixed sex change are predicted to be very sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern. If all male size classes are fished, protogynous populations are predicted to crash even at relatively low fishing mortality. When some male size classes escape fishing, we predict that the mean population size of sex-changing stocks will decrease proportionally less than the mean population size of dioecious species experiencing the same fishing mortality. For protogynous species, spawning-per-recruit measures that ignore fertilization rates are not good indicators of the impact of fishing on the population. Decreased mating aggregation size is predicted to lead to an increased effect of sperm limitation at constant fishing mortality and effort. Marine protected areas have the potential to mitigate some effects of fishing on sperm limitation in sex-changing populations.

Avaliaçāo económica das medidas de gestāo da pescaria de camarāo do Banco de Sofala

The objective of this study is to recommend management measures for the industrial shallow-water shrimp fishery in Sofala Bank after estimating the economic affects considering different alternatives and assessing the level of exploitation of this fishery. The short-term economic analysis was based on the results of the total catch and average weight of the shrimp caught obtained by a simulation model in which different combinations of exploitation patterns and levels of fishing intensity were tasted. The variable parameters used were the mash size and the duration and period of the closed season, and all the remaining parameters were fixed. Economic and production data of the main industrial shrimp fishing companies for the period 1987-90 were also used.

Water budgeting studies on the hatchery and nursery rearing practices for the common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758)

Aquaculture systems are an integral element of rural development and therefore should be environment friendly as well as socially and economically designed. From the economic standpoint, one of the major constraints for the development of sustainable aquaculture includes externalities generated by competition in access to a limited resource. This study was conducted as an investigation into the water requirement for the hatchery and nursery production phases of common carp, Cyprinus carpio (Linnaeus, 1758) at the Maharashtra State Fish Seed Farm at Khopoli in Raigad Dist. of Maharashtra during the winter months from November to February. The water budgeting study involves the quantification of water used in every stage of production in hatchery and nursery systems and aimed at becoming a foundation for the minimization of water during production without affecting the yield; thereby conserving water and upholding the theme of sustainable aquaculture. The total water used in a single operation cycle was estimated to be 11,25,040 L [sic]. Out of the total water consumed, 4.74% water was used in the pre-operational management steps, 4.48% was consumed during breeding, 62.72% was consumed in the hatching phase, 21.50% was used for hatchery rearing and 6.56% was consumed during conditioning. In the nursery ponds, the water gain was primarily the regulated inflow coming through the irrigation channel. The total quantum of water used in the nursery rearing was 31,60,800 L [sic]. The initial filling and regulated inflow formed 42.60% and 57.40% respectively of water gain, while evaporation, seepage and discharge contributed 20.71%, 36.46% and 42.82% respectively to the water loss. The total water expended for the entire operation was 1,21,61,120 L [sic]. Water expense occurred to produce a single spawn in the hatchery system was calculated and found to be 0.56 L while the water expended to produce one fry was calculated as 4.86 L. The study fulfills the hydrological equation described by Winter (1981) and Boyd (1985). It also validates the water budget simulation model that can be used for forecasting water requirements for aquaculture ponds (Nath and Bolte, 1998).

A general framework for integrating environmental time series into stock assessment models: model description, simulation testing, and example

We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.