Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Marine Flora and Fauna of the Eastern United States: Copepoda, Cyclopoida: Archinotodelphyidae, Notodelphyidae, and Ascidicolidae

This manual includes an introduction to the general biology, a selected bibliography, and an illustrated key to 11 genera and 17 species of copepods of the Crustacea, Subclass Copepoda, Order Cyclopoida, Families Archinotodelphyidae, Notodelphyidae and Ascidicolidae, associated with ascidians from the Atlantic Coast of the United States. Species distributed from the Gulf of Maine to Long Island Sound are emphasized. An annotated systematic list, with statements of the world distribution and new records of association with hosts, and a systematic index are also provided. (PDF file contains 44 pages.)

In situ measurement of dissolved inorganic carbon speciation in natural waters, pH, pC02, TA, & TC02, Honolulu, Hawaii, February 16-18, 2005: workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technology (ACT) convened a workshop on the in situ measurement of dissolved inorganic carbon species in natural waters in Honolulu, Hawaii, on February 16, 17, and 18, 2005. The workshop was designed to summarize existing technologies for measuring the abundance and speciation of dissolved inorganic carbon and to make strategic recommendations for future development and application of these technologies to coastal research and management. The workshop was not focused on any specific technology, however, most of the attention of the workshop was on in situ pC02 sensors given their recent development and use on moorings for the measurement of global carbon fluxes. In addition, the problems and limitations arising from the long-term deployment of systems designed for the measurement of pH, total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), and total alkalinity (TA) were discussed. Participants included researchers involved in carbon biogeochemistry, industry representatives, and coastal resource managers. The primary questions asked during the workshop were: I. What are the major impediments to transform presently used shipboard pC02 measurement systems for use on cost-eficient moorings? 2. What are the major technical hurdles for the in situ measurement of TA and DIC? 3. What specific information do we need to coordinate efforts for proof of concept' testing of existing and new technologies, inter-calibration of those technologies, better software development, and more precise knowledge quantzjjing the geochemistry of dissolved inoeanic carbon species in order to develop an observing system for dissolved inorganic carbon? Based on the discussion resulting from these three questions, the following statements were made: Statement No. 1 Cost-effective, self-contained technologies for making long-term, accurate measurements of the partial pressure of C02 gas in water already exist and at present are ready for deployment on moorings in coastal observing systems. Statement No. 2 Cost-effective, self-contained systems for the measurement of pH, TA, and DIC are still needed to both fully define the carbonate chemistry of coastal waters and the fluxes of carbon between major biogeochemical compartments (e.g., air-sea, shelf-slope, water column-sediment, etc.). (pdf contains 23 pages)

Flexibles Gitter für die Größenselektion von Ostseehering

In the Institute for Fishery Technology in Hamburg a new sorting grid for herring trawl fishery was developed which is more adapted to the commercial fishery than existing constructions. Therefore a flexible design was choosen with braided snoods as grid elements and rubber rings for shape stabilization. First tests were carried out with twin trawlers in the Western Baltic in February 1999. They proved principally the serviceability of this grid construction under commercial fishing conditions. The percentage of small sized herring was essentially reduced. Due to only few hauls more detailed quantitative statements are not possible yet.

Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples

This publication is based on materials covered and outputs generated during the Workshop on Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools for Aquaculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was jointly held by WorldFish and FAO in Siavonga, Zambia on 28 June - 2 July 2010. The workshop was delivered as a training exercise to 17 participants from seven sub-Saharan countries and was designed to highlight current methodologies and tools available for environmental risk analysis in aquaculture development. A key focus of the workshop was to encourage participants to consider hypothetical but realistic scenarios and to discuss issues relevant to evaluating the environmental risks of a given activity or scenario. This publication presents selected scenarios from the workshop and the outcomes of the deliberative process as developed by the participants. This publication is factual but not comprehensive, therefore any statements or estimations of risk do not represent the actual risks arising from the described scenario. It is intended to serve as an easily readable introduction to risk analysis, highlighting worked examples that will provide guidance on how a risk analysis may be approached in a similar situation.

A scale to measure the attitude towards improved fish processing methods

An attitude scale was constructed to measure the attitude of fisherwomen towards improved fish processing methods. To construct the attitude scale, 'scale' and ‘Q’ values (the interquartile ranges) were calculated for 31 statements selected, based on the opinion of 34 judges. Based on the 'scale' and ‘Q’ values 16 statements were selected with eight favorable statements and eight unfavorable statements. The weightages given were 3, 2 and 1 for favorable statements and 1, 2 and 3 for unfavorable statements.