Establishing National Ocean Service Priorities for Estuarine, Coastal, and Ocean Modeling: Capabilities, Gaps, and Preliminary Prioritization Factors

This report was developed to help establish National Ocean Service priorities and chart new directions for research and development of models for estuarine, coastal and ocean ecosystems based on user-driven requirements and supportive of sound coastal management, stewardship, and an ecosystem approach to management. (PDF contains 63 pages)

TUNPOP: A simulation of the dynamics and structure of the yellowfin tuna stock and surface fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Three distinct versions of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacores, stock and surface tuna fishery, are used to reveal mechanisms which appear to have a significant effect on the fishery dynamics. Real data on this fishery are used to make deductions on the distribution of the fish and to show how that distribution might influence events in the fishery. The most important result of the paper is that the concept of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna stock as a homogeneous unit is inadequate to represent the recent history of the fishery. Inferences are made on the size and distribution of the underlying stock as well as its potential yield to the surface fishery as a result of alterations in the level and distribution of the effort. SPANISH: Se han empleado tres versiones diferentes de TUNP0P, un modelo de simulación de la computadora (basado en la estructura de la edad) de la población y la pesca epipelágica del atún aleta amarilla, Tbunnus albacares, del Pacífico oriental, para revelar los mecanismos que parecen tener un efecto importante en la dinámica pesquera. Se emplean los datos verdaderos de esta pesca para hacer deducciones sobre la distribución de los peces y para mostrar cómo puede influir esta distribución en los eventos de pesca. La conclusión más importante de este estudio es que el concepto de que la población del aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental es una unidad homogénea, es inadecuado para representar la historia reciente de pesca. Se teoriza sobre la talla y distribución de la población subyacente como también sobre su producción potencial en la pesca epipelágica al cambiar el nivel y distribución del esfuerzo.

Aspects of the washout of salmonid eggs. 1. Observations on the physical characteristics of real and artificial eggs, their rate of fall in a water column and their pattern of settlement in an experimental channel

When salmonid redds are disrupted by spates, the displaced eggs will drift downstream. The mean distance of travel, the types of locations in which the eggs resettle and the depth of reburial of displaced eggs are not known. Investigation of these topics under field conditions presents considerable practical problems, though the use of artificial eggs might help to overcome some of them. Attempts to assess the similarities and/or differences in performance between real and artificial eggs are essential before artificial eggs can validly be used to simulate real eggs. The present report first compares the two types of egg in terms of their measurable physical characteristics (e.g. dimensions and density). The rate at which eggs fall in still water will relate to the rate at which they are likely to resettle in flowing water in the field. As the rate of fall will be influenced by a number of additional factors (e.g. shape and surface texture) which are not easily measured directly, the rates of fall of the two types of egg have been compared directly under controlled conditions. Finally, comparisons of the pattern of settlement of the two types of egg in flowing water in an experimental channel have been made. Although the work was primarily aimed at testing the value of artificial eggs as a simulation of real eggs, several side issues more directly concerned with the properties of real eggs and the likely distance of drift in natural streams have also been explored. This is the first of three reports made on this topic by the author in 1984.

Age validation, growth, mortality, and demographic modeling of spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) from the southeast coast of South Africa

This study documents validation of vertebral band-pair formation in spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) with the use of fluorochrome injection and tagging of captive and wild sharks over a 21-year period. Growth and mortality rates of T. megalopterus were also estimated and a demographic analysis of the species was conducted. Of the 23 OTC (oxytetracycline) -marked vertebrae examined (12 from captive and 11 from wild sharks), seven vertebrae (three from captive and four from wild sharks) exhibited chelation of the OTC and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. It was concluded that a single opaque and translucent band pair was deposited annually up to at least 25 years of age, the maximum age recorded. Reader precision was assessed by using an index of average percent error calculated at 5%. No significant differences were found between male and female growth patterns (P>0.05), and von Bertalanffy growth model parameters for combined sexes were estimated to be L∞=1711.07 mm TL, k=0.11/yr and t0=–2.43 yr (n=86). Natural mortality was estimated at 0.17/yr. Age at maturity was estimated at 11 years for males and 15 years for females. Results of the demographic analysis showed that the population, in the absence of fishing mortality, was stable and not significantly different from zero and particularly sensitive to overfishing. At the current age at first capture and natural mortality rate, the fishing mortality rate required to result in negative population growth was low at F>0.004/ yr. Elasticity analysis revealed that juvenile survival was the principal factor in explaining variability in population growth rate.

Mapping reef fish and the seascape: using acoustics and spatial modeling to guide coastal management

Reef fish distributions are patchy in time and space with some coral reef habitats supporting higher densities (i.e., aggregations) of fish than others. Identifying and quantifying fish aggregations (particularly during spawning events) are often top priorities for coastal managers. However, the rapid mapping of these aggregations using conventional survey methods (e.g., non-technical SCUBA diving and remotely operated cameras) are limited by depth, visibility and time. Acoustic sensors (i.e., splitbeam and multibeam echosounders) are not constrained by these same limitations, and were used to concurrently map and quantify the location, density and size of reef fish along with seafloor structure in two, separate locations in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Reef fish aggregations were documented along the shelf edge, an ecologically important ecotone in the region. Fish were grouped into three classes according to body size, and relationships with the benthic seascape were modeled in one area using Boosted Regression Trees. These models were validated in a second area to test their predictive performance in locations where fish have not been mapped. Models predicting the density of large fish (≥29 cm) performed well (i.e., AUC = 0.77). Water depth and standard deviation of depth were the most influential predictors at two spatial scales (100 and 300 m). Models of small (≤11 cm) and medium (12–28 cm) fish performed poorly (i.e., AUC = 0.49 to 0.68) due to the high prevalence (45–79%) of smaller fish in both locations, and the unequal prevalence of smaller fish in the training and validation areas. Integrating acoustic sensors with spatial modeling offers a new and reliable approach to rapidly identify fish aggregations and to predict the density large fish in un-surveyed locations. This integrative approach will help coastal managers to prioritize sites, and focus their limited resources on areas that may be of higher conservation value.

Coupling ecology and economy: modeling optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus) stock enhancement

Increasing interest in the use of stock enhancement as a management tool necessitates a better understanding of the relative costs and benefits of alternative release strategies. We present a relatively simple model coupling ecology and economic costs to make inferences about optimal release scenarios for summer flounder (Paralichthys dentatus), a subject of stock enhancement interest in North Carolina. The model, parameterized from mark-recapture experiments, predicts optimal release scenarios from both survival and economic standpoints for varyious dates-of-release, sizes-at-release, and numbers of fish released. Although most stock enhancement efforts involve the release of relatively small fish, the model suggests that optimal results (maximum survival and minimum costs) will be obtained when relatively large fish (75–80 mm total length) are released early in the nursery season (April). We investigated the sensitivity of model predictions to violations of the assumption of density-independent mortality by including density-mortality relationships based on weak and strong type-2 and type-3 predator functional responses (resulting in depensatory mortality at elevated densities). Depending on postrelease density, density-mortality relationships included in the model considerably affect predicted postrelease survival and economic costs associated with enhancement efforts, but do not alter the release scenario (i.e. combination of release variables) that produces optimal results. Predicted (from model output) declines in flounder over time most closely match declines observed in replicate field sites when mortality in the model is density-independent or governed by a weak type-3 functional response. The model provides an example of a relatively easy-to-develop predictive tool with which to make inferences about the ecological and economic potential of stock enhancement of summer flounder and provides a template for model creation for additional species that are subjects of stock enhancement interest, but for which limited empirical data exist.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and CTD data. Surface current velocity, divergence, and upwelling velocity were derived from ship drift reports. Surface wind velocity, wind stress, wind divergence, wind stress curl, and Ekman pumping velocity were derived from gridded pseudostress data obtained from Florida State University. Seasonal maps of these variables, and their deviations from the annual mean, show different patterns of variation in Equatorial (S°S-SON) and Tropical Surface Water (SOlS0N). Seasonal shifts in the trade winds, which affect the strength of equatorial upwelling and the North Equatorial Countercurrent, cause seasonal variations in most variables. Seasonal and interannual variability of surface temperature, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth and wind stress were quantified. Surface temperature, mixed layer depth and thermocline depth, but not local wind stress, are less variable in Tropical Surface Water than in Equatorial Surface Water. Seasonal and interannual variability are close to equal in most of the ETP, within factors of 2 or less. (PDF file contains 70 pages.)

TUNPOP, a computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and the surface tuna fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

Body shape variation and colour change during growth in a protogynous fish

Protogynous sequential hermaphroditism is very common in marine fish. Despite a large number of studies on various aspects of sequential hermaphroditism in fish, the relationship between body shape and colour during growth in dichromatic species has not been assessed. Using geometric morphometrics, the present study explores the relationship between growth, body shape and colouration in Coris julis (L. 1758), a small protogynous labrid species with distinct colour phases. Results show that body shape change during growth is independent of change in colour phase, a result which can be explained by the biology of the species and by the social control of sex change. Also, during growth the body grows deeper and the head has a steeper profile. It is hypothesized that a deeper body and a steeper profile might have a function in agonistic interactions between terminal phase males and that the marked chromatic difference between colour phases allows the lack of strict interdependence of body shape and colour during growth.

Species identification of family Lutjanidae and separation of populations of John’s snapper (Lutjanus johnii) in Persian Gulf and Oman Sea based on otolith shape analysis

The anatomical and morphometric (shape indices, contour descriptors and otolith weight) characterizations of sagittal otoliths were investigated in 13 species of Lutjanus spp. inhabiting the Persian Gulf. This is the first study that compares the efficiency of three different image analysis techniques for discriminating species based on the shape of the outer otolith contour, including elliptical Fourier descriptors (EFD), fast Fourier transform (FFT) and wavelet transform (WT). Sagittal otoliths of snappers are morphologically similar with some small specific variations. The use of otolith contour based on wavelets (WT) provided the best results in comparison with the two other methods based on Fourier descriptors, but only the combination of the all three methods (EFD, FFT and WT) was useful to obtain a robust classification of species. The species prediction improved when otolith weight was included. In relation to the shape indices, only the aspect ratio provided a clear grouping of species. Also, another study was carried on to test the possibility of application of shape analysis and comparing otolith contour of otoliths of Lutjanus johnii from Persian Gulf and Oman Sea to identify potential stocks. The results showed the otoliths have differences in contour shape and can be contribute to two different stocks.