A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Deriving acceptable biological catch from the overfishing limit: implications for assessment models

The recently revised Magnuson–Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act requires that U.S. fishery management councils avoid overfishing by setting annual catch limits (ACLs) not exceeding recommendations of the councils’ scientific advisers. To meet that requirement, the scientific advisers will need to know the overfishing limit (OFL) estimated in each stock assessment, with OFL being the catch available from applying the limit fishing mortality rate to current or projected stock biomass. The advisers then will derive ‘‘acceptable biological catch’’ (ABC) from OFL by reducing OFL to allow for scientific uncertainty, and ABC becomes their recommendation to the council. We suggest methodology based on simple probability theory by which scientific advisers can compute ABC from OFL and the statistical distribution of OFL as estimated by a stock assessment. Our method includes approximations to the distribution of OFL if it is not known from the assessment; however, we find it preferable to have the assessment model estimate the distribution of OFL directly. Probability-based methods such as this one provide well-defined approaches to setting ABC and may be helpful to scientific advisers as they translate the new legal requirement into concrete advice.

A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

A scientific forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept. Proceedings of the Forum: 23 January 2008, Keating Education Center, Mote Marine Laboratory, Sarasota, Florida

The Scientific Forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept took place in January 2008 in Sarasota, Florida. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together scientists and managers from around the Gulf of Mexico to discuss a range of topics on our knowledge of the Gulf of Mexico, from its geology to larger-scale connectivity to the Caribbean region, and their applications to the concept of a more integrated approach to area-based management. The forum included six panels of invited experts who spoke on the oceanographic and biological features in the Gulf of Mexico, including connections with Mexico and the Mesoamerican barrier reef system, and the legal and regulatory structure currently in place. The charge to the group was to share information, identify gaps in our knowledge, identify additional potential areas for protection, and discuss available science about connectivity and the potential value of establishing a marine protected area network in the Gulf of Mexico. (PDF has 108 pages.)

A review of the ecological effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California, Part I: Synopsis of scientific investigations

Marine reserves, often referred to as no-take MPAs, are defined as areas within which human activities that can result in the removal or alteration of biotic and abiotic components of an ecosystem are prohibited or greatly restricted (NRC 2001). Activities typically curtailed within a marine reserve are extraction of organisms (e.g., commercial and recreational fishing, kelp harvesting, commercial collecting), mariculture, and those activities that can alter oceanographic or geologic attributes of the habitat (e.g., mining, shore-based industrial-related intake and discharges of seawater and effluent). Usually, marine reserves are established to conserve biodiversity or enhance nearby fishery resources. Thus, goals and objectives of marine reserves can be inferred, even if they are not specifically articulated at the time of reserve formation. In this report, we review information about the effectiveness of the three marine reserves in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Hopkins Marine Life Refuge, Point Lobos Ecological Reserve, Big Creek Ecological Reserve), and the one in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (the natural area on the north side of East Anacapa Island). Our efforts to objectively evaluate reserves in Central California relative to reserve theory were greatly hampered for four primary reasons; (1) few of the existing marine reserves were created with clearly articulated goals or objectives, (2) relatively few studies of the ecological consequences of existing reserves have been conducted, (3) no studies to date encompass the spatial and temporal scope needed to identify ecosystem-wide effects of reserve protection, and (4) there are almost no studies that describe the social and economic consequences of existing reserves. To overcome these obstacles, we used several methods to evaluate the effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California. We first conducted a literature review to find out what research has been conducted in all marine reserves in Central California (Appendix 1). We then reviewed the scientific literature that relates to marine reserve theory to help define criteria to use as benchmarks for evaluation. A recent National Research Council (2001) report summarized expected reserve benefits and provided the criteria we used for evaluation of effectiveness. The next step was to identify the research projects in this region that collected information in a way that enabled us to evaluate reserve theory relative to marine reserves in Central California. Chapters 1-4 in this report provide summaries of those research projects. Contained within these chapters are evaluations of reserve effectiveness for meeting specific objectives. As few studies exist that pertain to reserve theory in Central California, we reviewed studies of marine reserves in other temperate and tropical ecosystems to determine if there were lessons to be learned from other parts of the world (Chapter 5). We also included a discussion of social and economic considerations germane to the public policy decision-making processes associated with marine reserves (Chapter 6). After reviewing all of these resources, we provided a summary of the ecological benefits that could be expected from existing reserves in Central California. The summary is presented in Part II of this report. (PDF contains 133 pages.)

Scientific fisheries work in Maryland

Presentation to elected officials [and American Fisheries Society] on the wealth of research to be done in the Chesapeake Bay. Citing drop in oyster production from a high of 17,000,000 bushels in 1885 to 2,000,000 bushels in 1925 or one-eighth of its one-time abundance. Citing water studies through the late 1880's-90's. Report of experiments with the Japanese Oyster O. gigas. Also addresses Crab, Callinectes sapidus and classes held. (PDF contains 7 pages)

Simulierte Auswirkungen des mehrjährigen Bewirtschaftungsplans für die Dorschfischerei in der westlichen Ostsee und die Möglichkeit einer technischen Alternative

The cod stock in the Western Baltic Sea is assessed to be overfished regarding the definitions of the UN World Summit on Sustainable Development at Johannesburg in 2002. Thus, the European Fisheries Council enforced a multi-annual management plan in 2007. Our medium term simulations over the future 10 years assume similar stock productivity as compared with the past four decades and indicate that the goals of the management plan can be achieved through TAC and consistent effort regulations. Taking account of the uncertainty in the recruitment patterns, the target average fishing mortality of age groups 3 – 6 years of F = 0.6 per year as defined in the management plan is indicated to exceed sustainable levels consistent with high long term yields and low risk of depletion. The stipulated constraint of the annual TAC variations of ±15% will dominate future fisheries management and implies a high recovery potential of the stock through continued reductions in fishing mortality. The scientific assessment of sustainable levels of exploitation and consideration in the plan is strongly advised, taking account of uncertainties attributed to environmental and biological effects. We recommend our study to be complemented with economic impact assessments including effects on by-catch species, which have been disregarded in this study. It is further demonstrated, that the goals of the management plan can alternatively be achieved by mesh size adaptations. An alternative technical option of mesh size increases to realize the required reductions in fishing mortality provides avoidance of discards of undersized fish after a few years by means of improved selectivity, another important element of the Common Fisheries Policy. However, it is emphasized that technical regulations since 1990 failed to affect the by-catch and discards of juvenile cod. In any way, the meaningful implementation of the multiannual management plan through stringent control and enforcement appears critical.

Overfishing, uncertainty, and ocean governance: Lord Perry's question revisited

“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.

Notes for guidance on preparation of research reports, research dissertations and scientific papers

The notes for guidance on preparation of research, research dissertations and scientific papers are meant to assist researchers on how to achieve a successful presentation, writing a technical report or research paper. This comprises some simple rules that have helped many inexperienced writers to get started, and have also helped more experienced writers to get out of a hopeless tangle of observations and inferences. (PDF contains 65 pages)

The role of sites of special scientific interest (SSSIs) in the conservation of British rivers

This paper discusses the particular contribution of the SSSI (Sites of Special Scientific Interest) as a way of nature conservation for rivers. In 1989, the Nature Conservancy Council proposed a dual selection system for selection of rivers; either (1) "Whole river" SSSIs representing the main types of river, or rivers which show classic and representative transitions down their lengths, or (2) "Sectional" SSSIs which are shorter stretches of river with high nature conservation interest. The NCC has recently classified all SSSIs with a river interest into 4 categories: - river SSSIs, river valley SSSIs, river adds interest - where the river clearly adds biological interest to the site, and rivers of incidental interest. The overall length of river SSSIs amounts to almost 1000 km.

A brief history of the scientific study of tropical African inland waters

An account is given of a study of African tropical waters, drawing on the personal experiences of the author. Reviewing developments since 1900, the author examines the way in which research has developed and the influence the changes in the policitcal map of Africa, in particular the change from colonial rule, has had on research.

Studies on the mouth size of fish larvae. Method and conclusions only [Translation from: Bulletin of the Japanese Society of Scientific Fisheries 36, 353-368, 1970]

This study was conducted to look into the relationship between mouth size and the total length of larval fish, and the growth in total length of larval fish in one or within a one-year period. Study material was gathered in the South China Sea, the Bay of Bangkok and the Vietnamese coast. This translation focuses on methods and conclusions of the original (longer) paper.

Scientific investigations into the eutrophication of the Norfolk Broads

The word ”Broads” is used to describe a series of relatively shallow lakes resulting from the flooding of medieval peat diggings. Broadland is essentially freshwater, but because the rivers have such low gradients the lower reaches are brackish. The influence of tide is particularly apparent on the River Yare; in Norwich 40 km from the sea there is a vertical movement of half a metre at spring tide. This study examines the problems that the broadlands are facing. The problems are basically the progressive loss of aquatic plants, in particular the macro- phytes, animal life, outbreaks of avian botulism, occasional fish kills due to a toxin produced by the blue-green alga Prymesium parvum and the emergence of very heavy algal blooms. The main factor for the deteriation of the Broaslands is the eutrophication resulting from enhanced nutrient inputs, in particular of nitrates and phosphates, from a variety of sources. The most important of these are sewage effluents, agricultural drainage, which includes fertilisers and nutrient rich effluents from piggeries and dairy un

Darwin Scientific Foundation, Inc. and Galapagos Darwin Trust, Europe

From a special issue: A Brief History of the Charles Darwin Foundation for the Galapagos Islands 1959-1988

A field guide for Agency staff operating the SIMRAD EY500 portable scientific echosounder. 2nd draft 3rd August 1999

This manual has been produced by members of the national acoustics group (NAG) and represents the first in a series of outputs designed to promote co-ordination and consistency in Agency hydroacoustic surveys. It is designed as a field guide for Agency staff operating the SIMRAD EY500 portable scientific echosounder. It should be simplistic enough for the newcomer to EY500 to be able to set up and run a mobile hydroacoustic survey with some knowledge of the supporting theory. It should act as guidance for standardisation of survey procedures providing a concise list of settings and recommendations that can be used as a quick reference guide in the field. This manual condenses 5 years of practical experience of surveying fish populations using Simrad hardware and software for surveying large rivers and still waters throughout England and Wales. This document should be used as a companion to the manufacturers instruction manual and not act as a substitute for it.