Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.

Five concepts in planning theory useful to coastal management

In recent years coastal resource management has begun to stand as its own discipline. Its multidisciplinary nature gives it access to theory situated in each of the diverse fields which it may encompass, yet management practices often revert to the primary field of the manager. There is a lack of a common set of “coastal” theory from which managers can draw. Seven resource-related issues with which coastal area managers must contend include: coastal habitat conservation, traditional maritime communities and economies, strong development and use pressures, adaptation to sea level rise and climate change, landscape sustainability and resilience, coastal hazards, and emerging energy technologies. The complexity and range of human and environmental interactions at the coast suggest a strong need for a common body of coastal management theory which managers would do well to understand generally. Planning theory, which itself is a synthesis of concepts from multiple fields, contains ideas generally valuable to coastal management. Planning theory can not only provide an example of how to develop a multi- or transdisciplinary set of theory, but may also provide actual theoretical foundation for a coastal theory. In particular we discuss five concepts in the planning theory discourse and present their utility for coastal resource managers. These include “wicked” problems, ecological planning, the epistemology of knowledge communities, the role of the planner/ manager, and collaborative planning. While these theories are known and familiar to some professionals working at the coast, we argue that there is a need for broader understanding amongst the various specialists working in the increasingly identifiable field of coastal resource management. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Using theory of change to achieve impact in AAS

The CGIAR Strategy and Results Framework sets out four system level outcomes (SLOs), namely: reducing rural poverty, improving food security, improving nutrition and health and sustainable management of natural resources. In pursuit of these objectives the CGIAR has developed a set of sixteen CGIAR Research Programs (CRPs), each of which is expected to make specific contributions to a range of intermediate development outcomes (IDOs) linked to the SLOs. As part of this work the CRPs are developing impact pathways and theories of change designed to explain how the programs will achieve IDOs. The purpose of the present paper is to explain the approach that the CRP on Aquatic Agricultural Systems (AAS) is taking to using these programmatic tools to help achieve impact.