Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Description of economic data collected with a random sample of commercial reef fish boats in the Florida Keys

This study summarizes the results of a survey designed to provide economic information about the financial status of commercial reef fish boats with homeports in the Florida Keys. A survey questionnaire was administered in the summer and fall of 1994 by interviewers in face-to-face meetings with owners or operators of randomly selected boats. Fishermen were asked for background information about themselves and their boats, their capital investments in boats and equipment, and about their average catches, revenues, and costs per trip for their two most important kinds of fishing trips during 1993 for species in the reef fish fishery. Respondents were characterized with regard to their dependence on the reef fish fishery as a source of household income. Boats were described in terms of their physical and financial characteristics. Different kinds of fishing trips were identified by the species that generated the greatest revenue. Trips were grouped into the following categories: yellowtail snapper (Ocyurus chrysurus); mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis), black grouper (Mycteroperca bonaci), or red grouper (Epinephelus morio); gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus); deeper water groupers and tilefishes; greater amberjack (Seriola dumerili); spiny lobster (Panulirus argus); king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla); and dolphin (Coryphaena hippurus). Average catches, revenues, routine trip costs, and net operating revenues per boat per trip and per boat per year were estimated for each category of fishing trips. In addition to its descriptive value, data collected during this study will aid in future examinations of the economic effects of various regulations on commercial reef fish fishermen.(PDF file contains 48 pages.)

Walk on the Water: experience of brackish rivers with children

A resource guide for teachers for 4th through 6th graders, produced as part of the Aquapeake project. Includes: background on how and why it was developed; Cycles which is a poetic expression of the wedding of natural studies with personal expression; Aout our Trip, is a tentative sketch for possible uses of the folios; Aquaria on setting up various sizes and styles of aquaria; Music, songs in word and music. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Results of a stratified random bottom trawl survey for scad and mackerel in Mozambican waters, from May to June 1984

The total abundance of small pelagic species in Mozambican waters was estimated to be 100 (plus or minus 45) thousand tonnes of which scad and mackerel constituted 57 (plus or minus 39) thousand tonnes. These abundance estimates must be considered as minimum estimates of biomass as the efficiency of the trawl was assumed to be equal to 1.0.

Results of a random stratified bottom trawl survey for scad and mackerel stocks in Mozambican waters: small pelagic fish December-January 1985

The results obtained during the third phase of Nauka are reported concerning the standing stock estimates, population length structure and gonad development of scad and mackerel stocks and the catch composition in Mozambican waters.

Genetic analysis of east and west coast populations of Penaeus monodon from India based on random amplified polymorphic DNA

The east and west coast populations of wild Penaeus monodon in India were genetically characterized by RAPD analysis using six highly polymorphic primers reported earlier. The average genetic similarities within populations, based on profiles generated by all the six primers, were 0.828 and 0.851 for the east and west coast populations, respectively, values with individual primers ranging from 0.744 to 0.889. The average genetic similarity between populations across all the primers was 0.774. The number of bands found to be polymorphic were 38 (51.35%) and 37 (50.68%) in the east and west coast populations, respectively. Primer 5 yielded the highest level of polymorphism (63.63%) in the east coast population whereas primer 3 yielded the lowest level of polymorphism (36.36%) in the west coast population. The study reveals the existence of genetic variation in P. monodon stocks providing scope for genetic improvement through selective breeding. It also provides baseline data for future work on population structure analysis of P. monodon.