A meta-analytic approach to quantifying scientific uncertainty in stock assessments

Quantifying scientific uncertainty when setting total allowable catch limits for fish stocks is a major challenge, but it is a requirement in the United States since changes to national fisheries legislation. Multiple sources of error are readily identifiable, including estimation error, model specification error, forecast error, and errors associated with the definition and estimation of reference points. Our focus here, however, is to quantify the influence of estimation error and model specification error on assessment outcomes. These are fundamental sources of uncertainty in developing scientific advice concerning appropriate catch levels and although a study of these two factors may not be inclusive, it is feasible with available information. For data-rich stock assessments conducted on the U.S. west coast we report approximate coefficients of variation in terminal biomass estimates from assessments based on inversion of the assessment of the model’s Hessian matrix (i.e., the asymptotic standard error). To summarize variation “among” stock assessments, as a proxy for model specification error, we characterize variation among multiple historical assessments of the same stock. Results indicate that for 17 groundfish and coastal pelagic species, the mean coefficient of variation of terminal biomass is 18%. In contrast, the coefficient of variation ascribable to model specification error (i.e., pooled among-assessment variation) is 37%. We show that if a precautionary probability of overfishing equal to 0.40 is adopted by managers, and only model specification error is considered, a 9% reduction in the overfishing catch level is indicated.

Marine eutrophication review. Part 1: Quantifying the effects of nitrogen enrichment on phytoplankton in coastal ecosystems; Part 2: Bibliography with abstracts

Professionals who are responsible for coastal environmental and natural resource planning and management have a need to become conversant with new concepts designed to provide quantitative measures of the environmental benefits of natural resources. These amenities range from beaches to wetlands to clean water and other assets that normally are not bought and sold in everyday markets. At all levels of government — from federal agencies to townships and counties — decisionmakers are being asked to account for the costs and benefits of proposed actions. To non-specialists, the tools of professional economists are often poorly understood and sometimes inappropriate for the problem at hand. This handbook is intended to bridge this gap. The most widely used organizing tool for dealing with natural and environmental resource choices is benefit-cost analysis — it offers a convenient way to carefully identify and array, quantitatively if possible, the major costs, benefits, and consequences of a proposed policy or regulation. The major strength of benefit-cost analysis is not necessarily the predicted outcome, which depends upon assumptions and techniques, but the process itself, which forces an approach to decision-making that is based largely on rigorous and quantitative reasoning. However, a major shortfall of benefit-cost analysis has been the difficulty of quantifying both benefits and costs of actions that impact environmental assets not normally, nor even regularly, bought and sold in markets. Failure to account for these assets, to omit them from the benefit-cost equation, could seriously bias decisionmaking, often to the detriment of the environment. Economists and other social scientists have put a great deal of effort into addressing this shortcoming by developing techniques to quantify these non-market benefits. The major focus of this handbook is on introducing and illustrating concepts of environmental valuation, among them Travel Cost models and Contingent Valuation. These concepts, combined with advances in natural sciences that allow us to better understand how changes in the natural environment influence human behavior, aim to address some of the more serious shortcomings in the application of economic analysis to natural resource and environmental management and policy analysis. Because the handbook is intended for non-economists, it addresses basic concepts of economic value such as willingness-to-pay and other tools often used in decision making such as costeffectiveness analysis, economic impact analysis, and sustainable development. A number of regionally oriented case studies are included to illustrate the practical application of these concepts and techniques.

Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.09 Mb] Section I - Presentations and Discussions at Plenary Sessions Introduction and Overview of Workshop Objectives [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Plenary Session Presentations [pdf, 2.23 Mb] Reports of the Breakout Group Discussions [pdf, 0.43 Mb] Closing Plenary Discussion and Recommendations [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Section II - Extended Abstracts of Individual Presentations at Breakout Group Sessions Breakout Group 1: Physical/Chemical Oceanography and Climate [pdf, 6.14 Mb] Breakout Group 2: Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Micronekton and Benthos [pdf, 28.14 Mb] Breakout Group 3: Fish, Squid, Crabs and Shrimps [pdf, 4.30 Mb] Breakout Group 4: Highly Migratory Fishes, Seabirds and Marine Mammals [pdf, 6.27 Mb] Appendix 1. Workshop agenda [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Appendix 2. List of participants [pdf, 0.13 Mb] (Document pdf contains 216 pages)

Changes in the chloride content of ground water in Pinellas County, Florida between 1947 and 1956

In December 1956 the U. S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Florida Geological Survey and the Board of County Commissioners of Pinellas County, collected waterlevel and chloride content of water in 94 wells in Pinellas County. First sampled in 1947, resampling and reanalyzing the water from these wells was used to determine the change in the chloride content of the ground water from 1947 to 1956. The chloride content of ground water is generally a reliable indication of the contamination of ground water by sea water, as 90 percent of the dissolved solids of sea water are chloride salts. (PDF contains 15 pages.)

Population Characteristics of Largemouth Bass Associated with Changes in Abundance of Submersed Aquatic Vegetation in Lake Seminole, Georgia

Population characteristics of largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides L.) including growth, body condition (relative weight), survival, and egg production were examined in relation to abundance of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV) coverage (primarily hydrilla [ Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle]) in three embayments of Lake Seminole, GA, and compared to a previous study conducted in 1998. (PDF has 8 pages.)

Changes in Behavior, Movement, and Home Ranges of Largemouth Bass Following Large-scale Hydrilla Removal in Lake Seminole, Georgia

About 1,200 ha of hydrilla ( Hydrilla verticillata L.f. Royle) was eliminated in the Spring Creek embayment of Lake Seminole, Georgia, using a drip-delivery application of fluridone (1- methyl-3-phenyl-5-[3-(trifluoromethl) phenyl]-4(1H)-pyridinone) in 2000 and 2001. Two groups of 15 and 20 largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides Lacepede) were implanted with 400-day radio tags in February 2000 and 2001 to determine changes in movement and behavior before and after hydrilla reduction.(PDF contains 8 pages.)

Changes In Submersed Macrophytes In Relation To Tidal Storm Surges

We analyzed long-term submersed macrophyte presence-absence data collected from 15 stations in Kings Bay/Crystal River, Florida in relation to three major storm events. The percent occurrence of most species declined immediately after storm events but the recovery pattern after the storm differed among species. Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.F.) Royle)and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) exhibited differing recolonization behaviors. Eurasian watermilfoil recolonized quickly after storms but declined in abundance as hydrilla began to increase in abundance. Natural catastrophic events restructure submersed macrophyte communities by eliminating the dominate species, and allowing revegetation and restructuring of communities. Tidal surges may also act to maintain species diversity in the system. In addition, catastrophic events remove dense nuisance plant growth for several years, altering the public's perception of the nuisance plant problem of Kings Bay/Crystal River.

Changes In Submersed Macrophytes In Relation To Tidal Storm Surges

We analyzed long-term submersed macrophyte presence-absence data collected from 15 stations in Kings Bay/Crystal River, Florida in relation to three major storm events. The percent occurrence of most species declined immediately after storm events but the recovery pattern after the storm differed among species. Hydrilla (Hydrilla verticillata (L.F.) Royle)and Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) exhibited differing recolonization behaviors. Eurasian watermilfoil recolonized quickly after storms but declined in abundance as hydrilla began to increase in abundance. Natural catastrophic events restructure submersed macrophyte communities by eliminating the dominate species, and allowing revegetation and restructuring of communities. Tidal surges may also act to maintain species diversity in the system. In addition, catastrophic events remove dense nuisance plant growth for several years, altering the public's perception of the nuisance plant problem of Kings Bay/Crystal River.

Seasonal Changes in Chemical Composition of Eurasion Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and Water Temperature at Two Sites in northern California: implications for Herbivory

We compared seasonal changes in Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) characteristics and water temperature for a shallow poind in Davis, CA, and the Truckee River, near Tahoe City, CA. Tissue C and N were 15% lower in plants from the Truckee River than in plants from the Davis pond. Seasonal fluctuations in tissue N were also different. Mean phenolic acid content of Truckee River palnts (162yM g-1) was less than those from the shallow pond (195 yM g-1). Phenolic acid content was positively related to tissue C for Truckee River and Davis pond plants and, tissue C:N ratio for Truckee River plants. Mean monthly water temperature (1990 to 1998) for the Truckee River site was less than 20 C. Water temperatures were warmer in August and September at this site. However, Eurasian watermilfoil collected during these months was characterized by lower levels of tissue N. During a 29-month period beginning January 1994, mean monthly water temperature for the Davis pond exceeded 20 C, only during July to September 1995. Tissue N was generally greater during summer for watermilfoil growing in the pond. These results imply that Eurasian watermilfoil biological control agents may have different developmental rates in these habitats, and thus different impacts on watermilfoil populations.

An examination of the Community Fisheries Sub-Decree in Cambodia: changes and developments during the drafting process

This study examines the development of the Community Fisheries Sub-Decree. From its promulgation in late 2000 through its draft form in June 20021, this sub-decree has gone through over 25 drafts. Initially, the writing process involved the public intimately: community meetings were conducted, NGOs contributed their knowledge and expertise, and then, with these consultations in mind, the newly-formed Community Fisheries Development Office (CFDO) in the Department of Fisheries (DoF) drafted the sub-decree. Over the following year and a half, the sub-decree went through numerous changes, some of which fundamentally alter the tenor of the legislation. This includes the deletion of some of the primary issues of rural communities, such as what fishing gears they can use and whether they can participate in patrolling the fishing area. While the final form is still pending, there are many questions as to the positive effects that the sub-decree will ultimately have on people’s livelihoods when it is finally approved. This research was undertaken to track the development of the sub-decree to gain a better understanding of how the Cambodian policy-making system functions. Consultations were undertaken with the DoF and CFDO before the research began, both of which agreed to the study. It is hoped that this report will help not only those interested in community fisheries issues, but also those who want to advocate on other Cambodian development issues as well. Due to the sensitive nature of the subject material, and the fact that the sub-decree is still pending, the author has conducted interviews with the express purpose of keeping them confidential. Therefore, no individual will be quoted directly in this study. In addition, many of the English versions of the drafts examined were unofficial translations. The author has made no effort to correct the English in the drafts. Moreover, there are also questions regarding the drafts and their sequence, as no government records were kept of the process or the changes that were made along the way. These have been compiled after the fact. (33 p.)

Temporal and spatial changes in milfoil distribution and biomass associated with weevils in Fish Lake, WI

During the course of an eight year monitoring effort, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources documented a significant decline in milfoil biomass and distribution in Fish Lake, Wisconsin. Average milfoil biomass declined by 40- 50% from 374-524 g dw m -2 during 1991-93 to 265 g dw m -2 during both 1994 and 1995. Milfoil recovered fully in 1996- 98 to 446- 564 g dw m -2 . The size of the milfoil bed, as discerned from aerial photographs, shrank from a maximum coverage of 40 ha in 1991 to less than 20 ha during 1995. During the “crash” of 1994-95, milfoil plants exhibited typical signs of weevil-induced damage, including darkened, brittle, hollowed-out growing tips, and the arching and collapse of stems associated with loss of buoyancy. Monitoring of weevils and stem damage during 1995-98 showed highest densities and heaviest damage occurred near shore and subsequently fanned out into deeper water from core infestation sites each spring. The extent of milfoil stem damage was positively correlated with weevil densities (monthly sampling). However, weevil densities and stem damage were lower during 1995 (when milfoil biomass was in decline) than during 1996-98 (when milfoil biomass was fully recovered).

Characterization of the benthos, marine debris and bottom fish at Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary

Executive Summary: Baseline characterization of resources is an essential part of marine protected area (MPA) management and is critical to inform adaptive management. Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) currently lacks adequate characterization of several key resources as identified in the 2006 Final Management Plan. The objectives of this characterization were to fulfill this need by characterizing the bottom fish, benthic features, marine debris, and the relationships among them for the different bottom types within the sanctuary: ledges, sparse live bottom, rippled sand, and flat sand. Particular attention was given to characterizing the different ledge types, their fish communities, and the marine debris associated with them given the importance of this bottom type to the sanctuary. The characterization has been divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief overview of the project, its relevance to sanctuary needs, methods of site selection, and general field procedures. Section 2 provides the survey methods, results, discussion, and recommendations for monitoring specific to the benthic characterization. Section 3 describes the characterization of marine debris. Section 4 is specific to the characterization of bottom fish. Field surveys were conducted during August 2004, May 2005, and August 2005. A total of 179 surveys were completed over ledge bottom (n=92), sparse live bottom (n=51), flat sand (n=20), and rippled sand (n=16). There were three components to each field survey: fish counting, benthic assessment, and quantification of marine debris. All components occurred within a 25 x 4 m belt transect. Two divers performed the transect at each survey site. One diver was responsible for identification of fish species, size, and abundance using a visual survey. The second diver was responsible for characterization of benthic features using five randomly placed 1 m2 quadrats, measuring ledge height and other benthic structures, and quantifying marine debris within the entire transect. GRNMS is composed of four main bottom types: flat sand, rippled sand, sparsely colonized live bottom, and densely colonized live bottom (ledges). Independent evaluation of the thematic accuracy of the GRNMS benthic map produced by Kendall et al. (2005) revealed high overall accuracy (93%). Most discrepancies between map and diver classification occurred during August 2004 and likely can be attributed to several factors, including actual map or diver errors, and changes in the bottom type due to physical forces. The four bottom types have distinct physical and biological characteristics. Flat and rippled sand bottom types were composed primarily of sand substrate and secondarily shell rubble. Flat sand and rippled sand bottom types were characterized by low percent cover (0-2%) of benthic organisms at all sites. Although the sand bottom types were largely devoid of epifauna, numerous burrows indicate the presence of infaunal organisms. Sparse live bottom and ledges were colonized by macroalgae and numerous invertebrates, including coral, gorgonians, sponges, and “other” benthic species (such as tunicates, anemones, and bryozoans). Ledges and sparse live bottom were similar in terms of diversity (H’) given the level of classification used here. However, percent cover of benthic species, with the exception of gorgonians, was significantly greater on ledge than on sparse live bottom. Percent biotic cover at sparse live bottom ranged from 0.7-26.3%, but was greater than 10% at only 7 out of 51 sites. Colonization on sparse live bottom is likely inhibited by shifting sands, as most sites were covered in a layer of sediment up to several centimeters thick. On ledge bottom type, percent cover ranged from 0.42-100%, with the highest percent cover at ledges in the central and south-central region of GRNMS. Biotic cover on ledges is influenced by local ledge characteristics. Cluster analysis of ledge dimensions (total height, undercut height, undercut width) resulted in three main categories of ledges, which were classified as short, medium, and tall. Median total percent cover was 97.6%, 75.1%, and 17.7% on tall, medium, and short ledges, respectively. Total percent cover and cover of macroalgae, sponges, and other organisms was significantly lower on short ledges compared to medium and tall ledges, but did not vary significantly between medium and tall ledges. Like sparse live bottom, short ledges may be susceptible to burial by sand, however the results indicate that ledge height may only be important to a certain threshold. There are likely other factors not considered here that also influence spatial distribution and community structure (e.g., small scale complexity, ocean currents, differential settlement patterns, and biological interactions). GRNMS is a popular site for recreational fishing and boating, and there has been increased concern about the accumulation of debris in the sanctuary and potential effects on sanctuary resources. Understanding the types, abundance, and distribution of debris is essential to improving debris removal and education efforts. Approximately two-thirds of all observed debris items found during the field surveys were fishing gear, and about half of the fishing related debris was monofilament fishing line. Other fishing related debris included leaders and spear gun parts, and non-gear debris included cans, bottles, and rope. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than at other bottom types. Several factors may contribute to this observation. Ledges are often targeted by fishermen due to the association of recreationally important fish species with this bottom type. In addition, ledges are structurally complex and are often densely colonized by biota, providing numerous places for debris to become stuck or entangled. Analysis of observed boat locations indicated that higher boat activity, which is an indication of fishing, occurs in the center of the sanctuary. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boat density and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover. While it is likely that most fishing related debris originates from boats inside the sanctuary, preliminary investigation of ocean current data indicate that currents may influence the distribution and local retention of more mobile items. Fish communities at GRNMS are closely linked to benthic habitats. A list of species encountered, probability of occurrence, abundance, and biomass by habitat is provided. Species richness, diversity, composition, abundance, and biomass of fish all showed striking differences depending on bottom type with ledges showing the highest values of nearly all metrics. Species membership was distinctly separated by bottom type as well, although very short, sparsely colonized ledges often had a similar community composition to that of sparse live bottom. Analysis of fish communities at ledges alone indicated that species richness and total abundance of fish were positively related to total percent cover of sessile invertebrates and ledge height. Either ledge attribute was sufficient to result in high abundance or species richness of fish. Fish diversity (H`) was negatively correlated with undercut height due to schools of fish species that utilize ledge undercuts such as Pareques species. Concurrent analysis of ledge types and fish communities indicated that there are five distinct combinations of ledge type and species assemblage. These include, 1) short ledges with little or no undercut that lacked many of the undercut associated species except Urophycis earlii ; 2) tall, heavily colonized, deeply undercut ledges typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Mycteroperca sp., and Pareques sp.; 3) tall, heavily colonized but less undercut with high occurrence of Lagodon rhomboides and Balistes capriscus; 4) short, heavily colonized ledges typically with Centropristis ocyurus, Halichoeres caudalis, and Stenotomus sp.; and 5) tall, heavily colonized, less undercut typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Caranx crysos and Seriola sp.. Higher levels of boating activity and presumably fishing pressure did not appear to influence species composition or abundance at the community level although individual species appeared affected. These results indicate that merely knowing the basic characteristics of a ledge such as total height, undercut width, and percent cover of sessile invertebrates would allow good prediction of not only species richness and abundance of fish but also which particular fish species assemblages are likely to occur there. Comparisons with prior studies indicate some major changes in the fish community at GRNMS over the last two decades although the causes of the changes are unknown. Species of interest to recreational fishermen including Centropristis striata, Mycteroperca microlepis, and Mycteroperca phenax were examined in relation to bottom features, areas of assumed high versus low fishing pressure, and spatial dispersion. Both Mycteroperca species were found more frequently when undercut height of ledges was taller. They often were found together in small mixed species groups at ledges in the north central and southwest central regions of the sanctuary. Both had lower mode size and proportion of fish above the fishery size limit in heavily fished areas of the sanctuary (i.e. high boat density) despite the presence of better habitat in that region. Black sea bass, C. striata, occurred at 98% of the ledges surveyed and appeared to be evenly distributed throughout the sanctuary. Abundance was best explained by a positive relationship with percent cover of sessile biota but was also negatively related to presence of either Mycteroperca species. This may be due to predation by the Mycteroperca species or avoidance of sites where they are present by C. striata. Suggestions for monitoring bottom features, marine debris, and bottom fish at GRNMS are provided at the end of each chapter. The present assessment has established quantitative baseline characteristics of many of the key resources and use issues at GRNMS. The methods can be used as a model for future assessments to track the trajectory of GRNMS resources. Belt transects are ideally suited to providing efficient and quantitative assessment of bottom features, debris, and fish at GRNMS. The limited visibility, sensitivity of sessile biota, and linear nature of ledge habitats greatly diminish the utility of other sampling techniques. Ledges should receive the bulk of future characterization effort due to their importance to the sanctuary and high variability in physical structure, benthic composition, and fish assemblages. (PDF contains 107 pages.)

A video method for quantifying size distribution, density, and three-dimensional spatial structure of reef fish spawning aggregations

There is a clear need to develop fisheries independent methods to quantify individual sizes, density, and three dimensional characteristics of reef fish spawning aggregations for use in population assessments and to provide critical baseline data on reproductive life history of exploited populations. We designed, constructed, calibrated, and applied an underwater stereo-video system to estimate individual sizes and three dimensional (3D) positions of Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) at a spawning aggregation site located on a reef promontory on the western edge of Little Cayman Island, Cayman Islands, BWI, on 23 January 2003. The system consists of two free-running camcorders mounted on a meter-long bar and supported by a SCUBA diver. Paired video “stills” were captured, and nose and tail of individual fish observed in the field of view of both cameras were digitized using image analysis software. Conversion of these two dimensional screen coordinates to 3D coordinates was achieved through a matrix inversion algorithm and calibration data. Our estimate of mean total length (58.5 cm, n = 29) was in close agreement with estimated lengths from a hydroacoustic survey and from direct measures of fish size using visual census techniques. We discovered a possible bias in length measures using the video method, most likely arising from some fish orientations that were not perpendicular with respect to the optical axis of the camera system. We observed 40 individuals occupying a volume of 33.3 m3, resulting in a concentration of 1.2 individuals m–3 with a mean (SD) nearest neighbor distance of 70.0 (29.7) cm. We promote the use of roving diver stereo-videography as a method to assess the size distribution, density, and 3D spatial structure of fish spawning aggregations.

Recent changes in the efficiency of vessels fishing for yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Since the inception of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission in 1950, one of the primary tasks of its scientific staff has been the collection and analysis of the statistics of total catch, effort expended in obtaining this catch, and the apparent abundance of yellowfin tuna (Neothunnus macropterus) and the skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. A concentrated effort by the staff during 1951 and 1952 resulted in the compilation of a series of historical data on the catch and catch-per-effort of tropical tunas for the years 1934-1950, and in the establishment of a detailed logbook system to monitor the current activities of the tuna fleets. Schaefer (1953) and Shimada and Schaefer (1956) have reviewed in detail the methods of collection and analysis of these data. Further studies, based on these and subsequently collected records, are contained in publications by Schaefer (1957), Shimada (1958), Alverson (1959, 1960), Griffiths (1960) and Calkins (1961). SPANISH: Desde que la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical comenzó sus funciones en 1950, entre las más importantes tareas de su personal científico incluyó la recolección y análisis de las estadísticas de la captura total, del esfuerzo empleado en obtener esta captura y de la abundancia aparente de los atunes aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus) y barriletes (Katsutvonus pelamis) en el Océano Pacífico Oriental. El concentrado esfuerzo del personal científico de la Comisión durante 1951 y 1952 dió como resultado la compilación de una serie de datos históricos sobre la captura de atunes tropicales y sobre la captura según el esfuerzo durante los años 1934 a 1950, así como el establecimiento de un sistema detallado de registro de las anotaciones en los cuadernos de bitácora para vigilar las actividades diarias de las flotas atuneras. Schaefer (1953) y Shimada y Schaefer (1956) han expuesto detalladamente los métodos de recolección y análisis de dichos datos. Otros estudios, basados en estos registros y en los recolectados posteriormente, se encuentran en las publicaciones de Schaefer (1957), Shimada (1958), Alverson (1959, 1960), Griffiths (1960) y Calkins (1961).