19 resultados para predictor endogeneity

em Aquatic Commons


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Estimates of the Q/B ratio and parameters of equations to 'predict' Q/B values for 116 fish stocks in the Gulf of Salamanca, Colombia are presented. A compilation of these estimates available for Caribbean Sea fishes (264 stocks) is also provided for comparison purposes. General trends in the value of Q/B resulting from differences in the equation and parameter values used are briefly discussed.

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To be in compliance with the Endangered Species Act and the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the United States Department of the Navy is required to assess the potential environmental impacts of conducting at-sea training operations on sea turtles and marine mammals. Limited recent and area-specific density data of sea turtles and dolphins exist for many of the Navy’s operations areas (OPAREAs), including the Marine Corps Air Station (MCAS) Cherry Point OPAREA, which encompasses portions of Core and Pamlico Sounds, North Carolina. Aerial surveys were conducted to document the seasonal distribution and estimated density of sea turtles and dolphins within Core Sound and portions of Pamlico Sound, and coastal waters extending one mile offshore. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data for each survey were extracted from 1.4 km/pixel resolution Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer remote images. A total of 92 turtles and 1,625 dolphins were sighted during 41 aerial surveys, conducted from July 2004 to April 2006. In the spring (March – May; 7.9°C to 21.7°C mean SST), the majority of turtles sighted were along the coast, mainly from the northern Core Banks northward to Cape Hatteras. By the summer (June – Aug.; 25.2°C to 30.8°C mean SST), turtles were fairly evenly dispersed along the entire survey range of the coast and Pamlico Sound, with only a few sightings in Core Sound. In the autumn (Sept. – Nov.; 9.6°C to 29.6°C mean SST), the majority of turtles sighted were along the coast and in eastern Pamlico Sound; however, fewer turtles were observed along the coast than in the summer. No turtles were seen during the winter surveys (Dec. – Feb.; 7.6°C to 11.2°C mean SST). The estimated mean surface density of turtles was highest along the coast in the summer of 2005 (0.615 turtles/km², SE = 0.220). In Core and Pamlico Sounds the highest mean surface density occurred during the autumn of 2005 (0.016 turtles/km², SE = 0.009). The mean seasonal abundance estimates were always highest in the coastal region, except in the winter when turtles were not sighted in either region. For Pamlico Sound, surface densities were always greater in the eastern than western section. The range of mean temperatures at which turtles were sighted was 9.68°C to 30.82°C. The majority of turtles sighted were within water ≥ 11°C. Dolphins were observed within estuarine waters and along the coast year-round; however, there were some general seasonal movements. In particular, during the summer sightings decreased along the coast and dolphins were distributed throughout Core and Pamlico Sounds, while in the winter the majority of dolphins were located along the coast and in southeastern Pamlico Sound. Although relative numbers changed seasonally between these areas, the estimated mean surface density of dolphins was highest along the coast in the spring of 2006 (9.564 dolphins/km², SE = 5.571). In Core and Pamlico Sounds the highest mean surface density occurred during the autumn of 2004 (0.192 dolphins/km², SE = 0.066). The estimated mean surface density of dolphins was lowest along the coast in the summer of 2004 (0.461 dolphins/km², SE = 0.294). The estimated mean surface density of dolphins was lowest in Core and Pamlico Sounds in the summer of 2005 (0.024 dolphins/km², SE = 0.011). In Pamlico Sound, estimated surface densities were greater in the eastern section except in the autumn. Dolphins were sighted throughout the entire range of mean SST (7.60°C to 30.82°C), with a tendency towards fewer dolphins sighted as water temperatures increased. Based on the findings of this study, sea turtles are most likely to be encountered within the OPAREAs when SST is ≥ 11°C. Since sea turtle distributions are generally limited by water temperature, knowing the SST of a given area is a useful predictor of sea turtle presence. Since dolphins were observed within estuarine waters year-round and throughout the entire range of mean SST’s, they likely could be encountered in the OPAREAs any time of the year. Although our findings indicated the greatest number of dolphins to be present in the winter and the least in the summer, their movements also may be related to other factors such as the availability of prey. (PDF contains 28 pages)

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Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

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We evaluated measures of bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and Fulton’s condition factor (K) as potential nonlethal indices for detecting short-term changes in nutritional condition of postsmolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Fish reared in the laboratory for 27 days were fed, fasted, or fasted and then refed. Growth rates and proximate body composition (protein, fat, water) were measured in each fish to evaluate nutritional status and condition. Growth rates of fish responded rapidly to the absence or reintroduction of food, whereas body composition (% wet weight) remained relatively stable owing to isometric growth in fed fish and little loss of body constituents in fasted fish, resulting in nonsignificant differences in body composition among feeding treatments. The utility of BIA and Fulton’s K as condition indices requires differences in body composition. In our study, BIA measures were not significantly different among the three feeding treatments, and only on the final day of sampling was K of fasted vs. fed fish significantly different. BIA measures were correlated with body composition content; however, wet weight was a better predictor of body composition on both a content and concentration (% wet weight) basis. Because fish were growing isometrically, neither BIA nor K was well correlated with growth rate. For immature fish, where growth rate, rather than energy reserves, is a more important indicator of fish condition, a nonlethal index that reflects shortterm changes in growth rate or the potential for growth would be more suitable as a condition index than either BIA measures or Fulton�

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Millions of crabs are sorted and discarded in freezing conditions each year in Alaskan fisheries for Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio). However, cold exposures vary widely over the fishing season and among different vessels, and mortalities are difficult to estimate. A shipboard experiment was conducted to determine whether simple behavioral observations can be used to evaluate crab condition after low-temperature exposures. Crabs were systematically subjected to cold in seven different exposure treatments. They were then tested for righting behavior and six different ref lex actions and held to monitor mortality. Crabs lost limbs, showed ref lex impairment, and died in direct proportion to increases in cold exposure. Righting behavior was a poor predictor of mortality, whereas reflex impairment (scored as the sum of reflex actions that were lost) was an excellent predictor. This composite index could be measured quickly and easily in hand, and logistic regression revealed that the relationship between reflex impairment and mortality correctly predicted 80.0% of the mortality and survival for C. bairdi, and 79.4% for C. opilio. These relationships provide substantial improvements over earlier approaches to mortality estimation and were independent of crab size and exposure temperature.

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A ssur ing the v itality and survival potential of live-caught Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) is important for improving the sorting of fish before net penning operations designed to hold fish for growth and later market. When Atlantic cod are captured by Danish seine, the most commonly used fishing gear for live-caught fish, they undergo stressors such as forced swimming, net abrasion, and air exposure. Laboratory experiments (at an air temperature of 9°C and water temperature of 8°C) were conducted with the aim of constructing a RAMP (reflex action mortality predictor) curve for prediction of vitality and survival potential in Atlantic cod captured in Danish seines, by varying the levels of these stressors. Atlantic cod exposed to increased duration in air (5–20 min) showed increased reflex impairment and mortality, with 75% mortality at 10 minutes of air exposure. Forced swimming in combination with net abrasion and air exposure did not increase reflex impairment or mortality above that associated with air exposure alone. The Atlantic cod RAMP curves indicated that fish with reflex impairment less than 50% would not show mortality and would likely recover from capture stress.

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Delayed mortality associated with discarded crabs and fishes has ordinarily been observed through tag and recovery studies or during prolonged holding in deck tanks, and there is need for a more efficient assessment method. Chionoecetes bairdi (Tanner crab) and C. opilio (snow crab) collected with bottom trawls in Bering Sea waters off Alaska were evaluated for reflexes and injuries and held onboard to track mortality. Presence or absence of six reflex actions was determined and combined to calculate a reflex impairment index for each species. Logistic regression revealed that reflex impairment provided an excellent predictor of delayed mortality in C. opilio (91% correct predictions). For C. bairdi, reflex impairment, along with injury score, resulted in 82.7% correct predictions of mortality, and reflex impairment alone resulted in 79.5% correct predictions. The relationships between reflex impairment score and mortality were independent of crab gender, size, and shell condition, and predicted mortality in crabs with no obvious external damage. These relationships provide substantial improvement over earlier predictors of mortality and will help to increase the scope and replication of fishing and handling experiments. The general approach of using reflex actions to predict mortality should be equally valuable for a wide range of crustacean species.

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Fish-habitat associations were examined at three spatial scales in Monterey Bay, California, to determine how benthic habitats and landscape configuration have structured deepwater demersal fish assemblages. Fish counts and habitat variables were quantified by using observer and video data collected from a submersible. Fish responded to benthic habitats at scales ranging from cm’s to km’s. At broad-scales (km’s), habitat strata classified from acoustic maps were a strong predictor of fish assemblage composition. At intermediate-scales (m’s−100 m’s), fish species were associated with specific substratum patch types. At fine-scales (<1 m), microhabitat associations revealed differing degrees of microhabitat specificity, and for some species revealed niche separation within patches. The use of habitat characteristics in ecosystembased management, particularly as a surrogate for species distributions, will depend on resolving fish-habitat associations and habitat complexity over multiple scales.

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Behavior of young (8−18 mm SL) giant trevally (Caranx ignobilis), a large coral-reef−associated predator, was observed in the laboratory and the ocean. Size was a better predictor of swimming speed and endurance than was age. Critical speed increased with size from 12 to 40 cm/s at 2.7 cm/s for each mm increase in size. Mean scaled critical speed was 19 body lengths/s and was not size related. Swimming speed in the ocean was 4 to 20 cm/s (about half of critical speed) and varied among areas, but within each area, it increased at 2 cm/s for each mm increase in size. Swimming endurance in the laboratory increased from 5 to 40 km at 5 km for each mm increase in size. Vertical distribution changed ontogenetically: larvae swam shallower, but more variably, and then deeper with growth. Two-thirds of individuals swam directionally with no ontogenetic increase in orientation precision. Larvae swam offshore off open coasts, but not in a bay. In situ observations of C. ignobilis feeding, interacting with pelagic animals, and reacting to reefs are reported. Manusc

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This brief article presents new empirical models for prediction of natural mortality (M) from growth parameters (L and K, W and K) in Mediterranean teleosts, based on 56 data sets presented in an earlier paper in the January 1993 issue of Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly in which models were presented that included temperature as a predictor variable, although its effect was nonsignificant and its partial slope had the "wrong" sign.

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We analyse the cost of controlling the invasive quinine tree Cinchona pubescens Vahl in the highlands of Santa Cruz Island, Galapagos. Control costs in ten 400 m2 plots formed the basis for estimating the cost of control over the whole island. In the plots, densities were 2100–24,000 stems/ha (stems >150 cm tall) and 55,000–138,000 stems/ha (all size classes combined). Control involved uprooting small plants, and applying of a mix of metsulfuron methyl and picloram to cut stumps or to machete cuts in the bark of larger trees. These methods are presently used by Galapagos National Park field crews to control quinine. Costs (in man hours, herbicide and US$) were related to stem density; the density of stems summed across four height classes was a better predictor of costs than density of any one size class. Regressions (on all size classes combined) formed the basis for predictive models of costs. Costs ranged from $14 to $2225 per ha depending on stem density. The amount of herbicide (active ingredient/ha) that must be applied to high density stands of quinine is higher than typical rates of application in an agricultural setting. The cost of treating all existing plants once across quinine’s known range on Santa Cruz Island (c. 11,000 ha) was estimated at c. US$1.65 million. CDF Contribution Number 1013.

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Unobserved mortalities of nontarget species are among the most troubling and difficult issues associated with fishing, especially when those species are targeted by other fisheries. Of such concern are mortalities of crab species of the Bering Sea, which are exposed to bottom trawling from groundfish fisheries. Uncertainty in the management of these fisheries has been exacerbated by unknown mortality rates for crabs struck by trawls. In this study, the mortality rates for 3 species of commercially important crabs—red king crab, (Paralithodes camtschaticus), snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and southern Tanner crab (C. bairdi)—that encounter different components of bottom trawls were estimated through capture of crabs behind the bottom trawl and by evaluation of immediate and delayed mortalities. We used a reflex action mortality predictor to predict delayed mortalities. Estimated mortality rates varied by species and by the part of the trawl gear encountered. Red king crab were more vulnerable than snow or southern Tanner crabs. Crabs were more likely to die after encountering the footrope than the sweeps of the trawl, and higher death rates were noted for the side sections of the footrope than for the center footrope section. Mortality rates were ≤16%, except for red king crab that passed under the trawl wings (32%). Herding devices (sweeps) can expand greatly the area of seafloor from which flatfishes are captured, and they subject crabs in that additional area to lower (4–9%) mortality rates. Raising sweep cables off of the seafloor reduced red king crab mortality rates from 10% to 4%.

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Jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) and purpleback squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis) (Teuthida: Ommastrephidae) are thought to spawn in the eastern tropical Pacific. We used 10 years of plankton tow and oceanographic data collected in this region to examine the reproductive habits of these 2 ecologically important squid. Paralarvae of jumbo squid and purpleback squid were found in 781 of 1438 plankton samples from surface and oblique tows conducted by the Southwest Fisheries Science Center (NOAA) in the eastern tropical Pacific over the 8-year period of 1998–2006. Paralarvae were far more abundant in surface tows (maximum: 1588 individuals) than in oblique tows (maximum: 64 individuals). A generalized linear model analysis revealed sea-surface temperature as the strongest environmental predictor of paralarval presence in both surface and oblique tows; the likelihood of paralarval presence increases with increasing temperature. We used molecular techniques to identify paralarvae from 37 oblique tows to species level and found that the purpleback squid was more abundant than the jumbo squid (81 versus 16 individuals).

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The effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly [SSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997–2000, which included the 1997–98 El Niño and 1999–2000 La Niña events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceanographic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Niña, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from –21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m–3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997–98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70–80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997–2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997–98 El Niño event.

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Catch rates from fishery-independent surveys often are assumed to vary in proportion to the actual abundance of a population, but this approach assumes that the catchability coefficient (q) is constant. When fish accumulate in a gear, the rate at which the gear catches fish can decline, and, as a result, catch asymptotes and q declines with longer fishing times. We used data from long-term trap surveys (1990–2011) in the southeastern U.S. Atlantic to determine whether traps saturated for 8 reef fish species because of the amount of time traps soaked or the level of fish accumulation (the total number of individuals of all fish species caught in a trap). We used a delta-generalized-additive model to relate the catch of each species to a variety of predictor variables to determine how catch was influenced by soak time and fish accumulation after accounting for variability in catch due to the other predictor variables in the model. We found evidence of trap saturation for all 8 reef fish species examined. Traps became saturated for most species across the range of soak times examined, but trap saturation occurred for 3 fish species because of fish accumulation levels in the trap. Our results indicate that, to infer relative abundance levels from catch data, future studies should standardize catch or catch rates with nonlinear regression models that incorporate soak time, fish accumulation, and any other predictor variable that may ultimately influence catch. Determination of the exact mechanisms that cause trap saturation is a critical need for accurate stock assessment, and our results indicate that these mechanisms may vary considerably among species.