10 resultados para predictive equations

em Aquatic Commons


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Quantification of predator-prey body size relationships is essential to understanding trophic dynamics in marine ecosystems. Prey lengths recovered from predator stomachs help determine the sizes of prey most influential in supporting predator growth and to ascertain size-specific effects of natural mortality on prey populations (Bax, 1998; Claessen et al., 2002). Estimating prey size from stomach content analyses is often hindered because of the degradation of tissue and bone by digestion. Furthermore, reconstruction of original prey size from digested remains requires species-specific reference materials and techniques. A number of diagnostic guides for freshwater (Hansel et al., 1988) and marine (Watt et al., 1997; Granadeiro and Silva, 2000) prey species exist; however they are limited to specific geographic regions (Smale et al., 1995; Gosztonyi et al., 2007). Predictive equations for reconstructing original prey size from diagnostic bones in marine fishes have been developed in several studies of piscivorous fishes of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean (Scharf et al., 1998; Wood, 2005). Conversely, morphometric relationships for cephalopods in this region are scarce despite their importance to a wide range of predators, such as finfish (Bowman et al., 2000 ; Staudinger, 2006), elasmobranchs (Kohler, 1987), and marine mammals (Gannon et al., 1997; Williams, 1999).

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ENGLISH: The growth of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific is described in terms of several measurements taken from the fish and their otoliths (sagittae). Equations are also developed to predict age from the readily available dimensions of fork length and head length. The data for all of these relationships were obtained from a sample of 196 fish collected during 1977 through 1979 from purse seiners fishing north of the equator and east of 137°W. The fork-length range of the sample was 30-170 cm. The number of increments on a sagitta of each fish was used as a direct estimate of its age in days. The correspondence between increments and days has been validated for yellowfin in the length range of 40-110 cm. Circumstantial evidence indicates that the relationship also applies in the intervals of 0-40 cm and 110-170 cm. This circumstancial evidence was derived from: 1) literature on validated increments during early growth for other species, 2) knowledge that structures assumed to be daily increments on yellowfin otoliths have subsequently been validated in the corresponding zone on bluefin otoliths, and 3) a comparison of the growth curve based on increments to others obtained from length frequency modal analysis. Based on this information the age estimates over the entire size range of sampled fish are believed to be accurate. In addition to the general growth and age-predictive relationships, the major conclusions of the study are that: 1) Sexually dimorphic growth exists in terms of fork length, fish weight and the length of the otolith counting path for the entire data set. Examination of the data for 1977 and 1979 also revealed that the fork-length growth of each sex differed within years. 2) For combined sexes there were significant differences among the fork-length growth curves for yellowfin sampled in different years. 3) Yellowfin caught inshore (within 275 miles of the coast) were heavier than those caught offshore for fork lengths between 30 and 110 cm. The situation was reversed for lengths greater than 110 cm. 4) Back-calculated spawning months were distributed uniformly throughout the year in 1974 and 1977, but in 1975-1976 and 1978 spawning activity was apparently concentrated in the latter half of the year. SPANISH: El crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla en el Pacífico oriental se describe en términos de varias medidas obtenidas de peces y otolitos (sagita). Se formularon también ecuaciones para pronosticar la edad, según las dimensiones fácilmente disponibles de la longitud horquilla y longitud de la cabeza. Los datos de todas estas relaciones fueron obtenidos mediante una muestra de 196 peces recolectados desde 1977hasta 1979, en barcos cerqueros que estaban pescando al norte de la línea ecuatorial y al este de los 137°W. El intervalo de la longitud horquilla de la muestra fue de 30-170 cm. Se empleó el número de incrementos en la sagita de cada pez como un estimado directo de la edad en días. Se ha comprobado la relación entre los incrementos y los días en el intervalo de longitud de 40-110 cm del aleta amarilla. La evidencia circunstancial indica que se aplica también la relación a los intervalos de 0-40 cm y 110-170 cm. Esta evidencia circunstancial se dedujo: 1) de las publicaciones sobre incrementos comprobados de otras especies durante el primer crecimiento, 2) del conocimientoque las estructuras que se supone son incrementos diarios en los otolitos del aleta amarilla han sido comprobadas luego en la parte correspondiente de otolitos del aleta azul y 3) por una comparación de la curva de crecimiento, basada en incrementos relacionados a otras curvas obtenidas según el análisis modal frecuencia-talla. Se cree, basados en esta información, que las estimaciones de la edad sobre toda la amplitud de talla de los peces muestreados, es acertada. Además de la relación del crecimiento general y del pronóstico de la edad, las principales conclusiones de este estudio son: 1) En toda la serie de datos existe el crecimiento sexualmente dimórfico en términos de longitud horquilla, peso del pez y longitud del plano de conteo del otolito. El examen de los datos de 1977 y 1979, revelan también que el crecimiento longitud horquilla de cada sexo es diferente en los años. 2) En los sexos combinados hubo diferencias significativas entre las curvas de crecimiento longitud horquilla del aleta amarilla muestreado en diferentes años. 3) El aleta amarilla capturado cerca a la costa (en las primeras 275 millas) fue más pesado que el capturado en las aguas mar afuera, correspondiente a la longitud horquilla entre 30 y 110 cm. La situación fue inversa para tallas de más de 110 cm. 4) En 1974 y 1977, los meses retrocalculados del desove se distribuyeron uniformemente durante el año, pero en 1975-1976 y 1978, la actividad del desove se concentró aparentemente en el último semestre del año. (PDF contains 62 pages.)

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In recent years, a decrease in the abundance of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) has been observed (Fahay et al., 1999; Munch and Conover, 2000) that has led to increased interest in a better understanding the life history of the species. Estimates of several young-of-the-year (YOY) life history characteristics, including the importance and use of estuaries as nursery habitat (Kendall and Walford, 1979) and size-dependant mortality (Hare and Cowen, 1997), are reliant upon the accuracy of growth determination. By using otoliths, it is possible to use back-calculation formulae (BCFs) to estimate the length at certain ages and stages of development for many species of fishes. Use of otoliths to estimate growth in this way can provide the same information as long-term laboratory experiments and tagging studies without the time and expense of rearing or recapturing fish. The difficulty in using otoliths in this way lies in validating that 1) there is constancy in the periodicity of the increment formation, and 2) there is no uncoupling of the relationship between somatic and otolith growth. To date there are no validation studies demonstrating the relationship between otolith growth and somatic growth for bluefish. Daily increment formation in otoliths has been documented for larval (Hare and Cowen, 1994) and juvenile bluefish (Nyman and Conover, 1988). Hare and Cowen (1995) found ageindependent variability in the ratio of otolith size to body length in early age bluefish, although these differences varied between ontogenetic stages. Furthermore, there have been no studies where an evaluation of back-calculation methods has been combined with a validation of otolithderived lengths for juvenile bluefish.

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This brief article presents new empirical models for prediction of natural mortality (M) from growth parameters (L and K, W and K) in Mediterranean teleosts, based on 56 data sets presented in an earlier paper in the January 1993 issue of Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly in which models were presented that included temperature as a predictor variable, although its effect was nonsignificant and its partial slope had the "wrong" sign.

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Empirical relationships were established linking estimates of the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M), the von Bertalanffy growth parameters, L sub( infinity ) (or W sub( infinity )) and K, and annual mean water temperature in 56 stocks of Mediterranean teleosts fish. It is suggested that these relationships generate for these fish more reliable estimates of M than the widely-used model of Pauly (1980, J. Cons. CIEM 33(3):175-192), which was based on 175 fish stocks, but included only five stocks from the Mediterranean.

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The relationship between length (L) and weight (W) was estimated for 80 species belonging to 50 families of marine fishes from the shelf and upper slope of southern Brazil (lat. 28°S - 34°S). Sample sizes (n) for different species ranged from 11 to 14 741 specimens collected from commercial landings and research surveys. The fit of the equations (W=aLb) with a and b parameters estimated from regular and functional regression (of log-transformed weight and length data) as well as from a non-linear iterative process using the quasi-Newton algorithm were compared. The non-linear method gave the most accurate estimates in terms of residual sum of squares. Differences were less than 2.3% for n>500 compared with predictive regressions and 1.5% compared with functional regressions. No difference was observed between both predictive and functional regressions. Determination coefficients (r2) increased with sample size, and the highest r2 were obtained for 50

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This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.

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The state fisheries department hatcheries are the major suppliers of seed to the farmers in Karnataka and Maharashtra. The brood stocks of these hatcheries are genetically closed units. In the present study, effective population size and cumulative inbreeding rates were estimated. The cumulative inbreeding rates ranged from 2.69 to 13.75, 8.63 to 15.21 and 3.02 to 5.88 per cent for catla, mrigal and rohu, respectively, in Karnataka state hatcheries. In Maharashtra, the cumulative inbreeding rates for catla ranged from 7.81 to 39.34 per cent and it was 5.84 to 14.09 and 2.46 to 10.20 per cent for mrigal and rohu, respectively. To estimate the inbreeding rates in future generations, predictive models were developed using linear regression, and polynomial and power equations separately for each hatchery. Their multiple correlation and standard errors suggested that simple linear regression can predict the future inbreeding rate efficiently.

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Many types of oceanic physical phenomena have a wide range in both space and time. In general, simplified models, such as shallow water model, are used to describe these oceanic motions. The shallow water equations are widely applied in various oceanic and atmospheric extents. By using the two-layer shallow water equations, the stratification effects can be considered too. In this research, the sixth-order combined compact method is investigated and numerically implemented as a high-order method to solve the two-layer shallow water equations. The second-order centered, fourth-order compact and sixth-order super compact finite difference methods are also used to spatial differencing of the equations. The first part of the present work is devoted to accuracy assessment of the sixth-order super compact finite difference method (SCFDM) and the sixth-order combined compact finite difference method (CCFDM) for spatial differencing of the linearized two-layer shallow water equations on the Arakawa's A-E and Randall's Z numerical grids. Two general discrete dispersion relations on different numerical grids, for inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, are derived. These general relations can be used for evaluation of the performance of any desired numerical scheme. For both inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, minimum error generally occurs on Z grid using either the sixth-order SCFDM or CCFDM methods. For the Randall's Z grid, the sixth-order CCFDM exhibits a substantial improvement , for the frequency of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of the linear inertia-gravity waves of the two layer shallow water model, over the sixth-order SCFDM. For the Rossby waves, the sixth-order SCFDM shows improvement, for the barotropic and baroclinic modes, over the sixth-order CCFDM method except on Arakawa's C grid. In the second part of the present work, the sixth-order CCFDM method is used to solve the one-layer and two-layer shallow water equations in their nonlinear form. In one-layer model with periodic boundaries, the performance of the methods for mass conservation is compared. The results show high accuracy of the sixth-order CCFDM method to simulate a complex flow field. Furthermore, to evaluate the performance of the method in a non-periodic domain the sixth-order CCFDM is applied to spatial differencing of vorticity-divergence-mass representation of one-layer shallow water equations to solve a wind-driven current problem with no-slip boundary conditions. The results show good agreement with published works. Finally, the performance of different schemes for spatial differencing of two-layer shallow water equations on Z grid with periodic boundaries is investigated. Results illustrate the high accuracy of combined compact method.