A reassessment of equations for predicting natural mortality in Mediterranean teleosts

This brief article presents new empirical models for prediction of natural mortality (M) from growth parameters (L and K, W and K) in Mediterranean teleosts, based on 56 data sets presented in an earlier paper in the January 1993 issue of Naga, the ICLARM Quarterly in which models were presented that included temperature as a predictor variable, although its effect was nonsignificant and its partial slope had the "wrong" sign.

Trophic State Index, morphoedaphic index and fish yield prediction in a sub-tropical lake, Manchar (Sindh), Pakistan

Limnological factors of a sub-tropical lake Manchar were studied on seasonal basis. The mean values of various parameters were: transparency, (secchi disc reading): 90.5 cm, Orthophosphate: 0.257 mg/l, TDS: 3310,5 mg/l, Conductivity: 5232 µs/l, Total Chlorophyll (Planktonic): 31.3 µg/l Planktonic biomass: 5466 µg/l. Trophic state index (TSI) was calculated by using Carlson's (1977) equations. Mean TSI for transparency was 61, while for orthophosphate and chlorophyll, it was 82 and 64 respectively. TSI values indicate advanced eutrophic state of Manchar Lake. Morphoedaphic index (MEI) was also calculated on seasonal basis. The mean values were, TDS: 1103, conductivity: 1744, alkalinity: 60, transparency: 29 and biomass (plankton dry weight): 1746. Fish yield prediction for Manchar Lake (Z =3m, mean area=100 km²) was calculated by using MEI values. The results were quite different among various parameters. Conductivity (89.1mt/y), biomass (67.6 mt/y) and TDS (44.6 mt/y) were found to be good predictors of fish yield. Chlorophyll, transparency and alkalinity values gave very low estimate.

A numerical model for prediction of oil, trajectory due to extraction activity in the north coasts of the Persian Gulf

This thesis considers a three- dimensional numerical model based on 3-D Navier— Stokes and continuity equations involving various wind speeds (North west), water surface levels, horizontal shier stresses, eddy viscosity, densities of oil and gas condensate- water mixture flows. The model is used to simulate the prediction of the surface movement of oil and gas condensate slicks from spill accident in the north coasts of Persian Gulf.

Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.09 Mb] Section I - Presentations and Discussions at Plenary Sessions Introduction and Overview of Workshop Objectives [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Plenary Session Presentations [pdf, 2.23 Mb] Reports of the Breakout Group Discussions [pdf, 0.43 Mb] Closing Plenary Discussion and Recommendations [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Section II - Extended Abstracts of Individual Presentations at Breakout Group Sessions Breakout Group 1: Physical/Chemical Oceanography and Climate [pdf, 6.14 Mb] Breakout Group 2: Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Micronekton and Benthos [pdf, 28.14 Mb] Breakout Group 3: Fish, Squid, Crabs and Shrimps [pdf, 4.30 Mb] Breakout Group 4: Highly Migratory Fishes, Seabirds and Marine Mammals [pdf, 6.27 Mb] Appendix 1. Workshop agenda [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Appendix 2. List of participants [pdf, 0.13 Mb] (Document pdf contains 216 pages)

Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Comparison of observed and predicted dates of eyeing, hatching and swim-up for brown trout and Atlantic salmon

Scholars recently derived simple models from published data for the prediction from water temperature of hatching times for the eggs of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). A similar model to predict eyeing time for salmon eggs was obtained and used in this study, largely by analogy, to develop equations which might be used to obtain very approximate estimates of eyeing and swim-up times for salmon and brown trout. As the models were based on data for constant temperatures and some of them also had a very inadequate data base, it was desirable that they should be tested, as far as possible, against field and hatchery observations. The present report is a brief summary based on such data as have been obtained to date. None of the data sets were ideal for the purpose and the various inadequacies are discussed later in this report.

The classification and prediction of macroinvertebrate communities in British rivers

This article describes the progress of the River Communities Project which commenced in 1977. This project aimed to develop a sensitive and practical system for river site classification using macroinvertebrates as an objective means of appraising the status of British rivers. The relationship between physical and chemical features of sites and their biological communities were examined. Sampling was undertaken on 41 British rivers. Ordination techniques were used to analyze data and the sites were classified into 16 groups using multiple discrimination analysis. The potential for using the environmental data to predict to which group a site belonged and the fauna likely to be present was investigated.

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

Prediction and confirmation of seasonal migration of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem

During the last century, the population of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem has exhibited large fluctuations in abundance and migration behavior. From approximately 1900 to 1940, the abundance of sardine reached 3.6 million metric tons and the “northern stock” migrated from offshore of California in the spring to the coastal areas near Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island in the summer. In the 1940s, the sardine stock collapsed and the few remaining sardine schools concentrated in the coastal region off southern California, year-round, for the next 50 years. The stock gradually recovered in the late 1980s and resumed its seasonal migration between regions off southern California and Canada. Recently, a model was developed which predicts the potential habitat for the northern stock of Pacific sardine and its seasonal dynamics. The habitat predictions were successfully validated using data from sardine surveys using the daily egg production method; scientific trawl surveys off the Columbia River mouth; and commercial sardine landings off Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Here, the predictions of the potential habitat and seasonal migration of the northern stock of sardine are validated using data from “acoustic–trawl” surveys of the entire west coast of the United States during the spring and summer of 2008. The estimates of sardine biomass and lengths from the two surveys are not significantly different between spring and summer, indicating that they are representative of the entire stock. The results also confirm that the model of potential sardine habitat can be used to optimally apply survey effort and thus minimize random and systematic sampling error in the biomass estimates. Furthermore, the acoustic–trawl survey data are useful to estimate concurrently the distributions and abundances of other pelagic fishes.

Prediction of discard mortality for Alaskan crabs after exposure to freezing temperatures, based on a reflex impairment index

Millions of crabs are sorted and discarded in freezing conditions each year in Alaskan fisheries for Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio). However, cold exposures vary widely over the fishing season and among different vessels, and mortalities are difficult to estimate. A shipboard experiment was conducted to determine whether simple behavioral observations can be used to evaluate crab condition after low-temperature exposures. Crabs were systematically subjected to cold in seven different exposure treatments. They were then tested for righting behavior and six different ref lex actions and held to monitor mortality. Crabs lost limbs, showed ref lex impairment, and died in direct proportion to increases in cold exposure. Righting behavior was a poor predictor of mortality, whereas reflex impairment (scored as the sum of reflex actions that were lost) was an excellent predictor. This composite index could be measured quickly and easily in hand, and logistic regression revealed that the relationship between reflex impairment and mortality correctly predicted 80.0% of the mortality and survival for C. bairdi, and 79.4% for C. opilio. These relationships provide substantial improvements over earlier approaches to mortality estimation and were independent of crab size and exposure temperature.

Validation of back-calculation equations for juvenile bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) with the use of tetracycline-marked otoliths

In recent years, a decrease in the abundance of bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) has been observed (Fahay et al., 1999; Munch and Conover, 2000) that has led to increased interest in a better understanding the life history of the species. Estimates of several young-of-the-year (YOY) life history characteristics, including the importance and use of estuaries as nursery habitat (Kendall and Walford, 1979) and size-dependant mortality (Hare and Cowen, 1997), are reliant upon the accuracy of growth determination. By using otoliths, it is possible to use back-calculation formulae (BCFs) to estimate the length at certain ages and stages of development for many species of fishes. Use of otoliths to estimate growth in this way can provide the same information as long-term laboratory experiments and tagging studies without the time and expense of rearing or recapturing fish. The difficulty in using otoliths in this way lies in validating that 1) there is constancy in the periodicity of the increment formation, and 2) there is no uncoupling of the relationship between somatic and otolith growth. To date there are no validation studies demonstrating the relationship between otolith growth and somatic growth for bluefish. Daily increment formation in otoliths has been documented for larval (Hare and Cowen, 1994) and juvenile bluefish (Nyman and Conover, 1988). Hare and Cowen (1995) found ageindependent variability in the ratio of otolith size to body length in early age bluefish, although these differences varied between ontogenetic stages. Furthermore, there have been no studies where an evaluation of back-calculation methods has been combined with a validation of otolithderived lengths for juvenile bluefish.

Empirical equations for the estimation of natural mortality in Mediterranean teleosts

Empirical relationships were established linking estimates of the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M), the von Bertalanffy growth parameters, L sub( infinity ) (or W sub( infinity )) and K, and annual mean water temperature in 56 stocks of Mediterranean teleosts fish. It is suggested that these relationships generate for these fish more reliable estimates of M than the widely-used model of Pauly (1980, J. Cons. CIEM 33(3):175-192), which was based on 175 fish stocks, but included only five stocks from the Mediterranean.

Beverton and Holt equations: spreadsheet functions and uncertainty

This contribution illustrates how modern spreadsheets aid the calculation and visualization of yield models and how the effects of uncertainties may be incorporated using Monte Carlo simulation. It is argued that analogous approaches can be implemented for other assessment models of simple to medium complexity justifying wider use of spreadsheets in fisheries analysis and training.