The importance of periodic droughts for maintaining diversity in the freshwater environment

Whereas some species may rely on periodic drought conditions for part of their life histories, or have life strategies suited to exploiting the habitat or changed environmental conditions that are created by drought, for other organisms it is a time of stress. Periodic drought conditions therefore generate a series of waves of colonization and extinctions. Studies on lowland wet grassland, in winterbournes and in the toiche zone of both ponds and rivers, also demonstrate that different organisms are competitively favoured with changing hydrological conditions, and that this process prevents any one species from overwhelming its competitors. Competitive impacts may be inter- and intraspecific. It is therefore apparent that the death of organisms such as adult fish during severe drought conditions, though traumatic for human onlookers and commercial interests, may be merely a regular occurrence to which the ecosystem is adapted. The variability of climatic conditions thereby provides a direct influence on the maintenance of biological diversity, and it is this very biodiversity that provides the ecosystem with the resilience to respond to environmental changes in both the short and the longer term.

Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.