Interactions of age-dependent mortality and selectivity functions in age-based stock assessment models

The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.

Problems in estimating the response functions of natural climatic recording systems [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): High-resolution proxy records of climate, such as varves, ice cores, and tree-rings, provide the opportunity for reconstructing climate on a year-by-year basis. In order to do so it is necessary to approximate the complex nonlinear response function of the natural recording system using linear statistical models. Three problems with this approach were discussed, and possible solutions were suggested. Examples were given from a reconstruction of Santa Barbara precipitation based on tree-ring records from Santa Barbara County.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Determination of ecological sensitive areas of the coastal areas of Caspian Sea (Boujagh Wetland National Park) based on ecological carrying capacity and economical valuation region

The coastal districts, as an intersection of two perfectly different ecosystems of dry land and sea, is one of the most complicated and the richest natural system on earth. Considering these areas are constantly exposed to aggregation of water pollutants and also consequence resulting from construction and development activities, they are very vulnerable. Therefore, "sensitive Coastal areas" has become a common word in the related subjects to marine environment recently. The said title relates to the areas of the coastal lines which are vulnerable to the natural condition or human actions because of ecological, social, economic, educational and research importance, also they need particular supports. The southern coasts of Caspian Sea, In Iran prominent samples are of these sensitive areas which their environment are exposed to demolition and destruction intensely, due to increasing and uncontrolled development. The first stage of protecting and managing the coastal areas is identifying sensitive Coastal areas and broadening the Coasts. In this survey, we attempted to examine a definite area in the southern coasts of Caspian Sea. In Iran, by profiting from the world experiences and concluded researches in Iran especially the concluded studies by marine environment office and the Environment protection organization on the subject of determination criteria of the sensitive ecological districts. For this purpose (In Gilan Province) Boujagh national park district which is located in the mouth of sefidroud river and also is possessed of the special ecological and environmental features and distinctions. In this survey, first they said district is divided proportionally on the basis of using a grid system in order to identify the sensitive ecological districts and broaden the coast, and then the desired indices have been determined and scored by numeral valuation method in each unit and then analysis has been done by using of the geography information system (GIS) and final has estimated economic valuation of sensitive ecological areas that is presented in this essay.