4 resultados para out-of-sample forecast

em Aquatic Commons


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In recent collaborative biological sampling exercises organised by the Nottingham Regional Laboratory of the Severn-Trent Water Authority, the effect of handnet sampling variation on the quality and usefulness of the data obtained has been questioned, especially when this data is transcribed into one or more of the commonly used biological methods of water quality assessment. This study investigates if this effect is constant at sites with similar typography but differing water quality states when the sampling method is standardized and carried out by a single operator. An argument is made for the use of a lowest common denominator approach to give a more consistent result and obviate the effect of sampling variation on these biological assessment methods.

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Introduction: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Biogeography Branch has conducted surveys of reef fish in the Caribbean since 1999. Surveys were initially undertaken to identify essential fish habitat, but later were used to characterize and monitor reef fish populations and benthic communities over time. The Branch’s goals are to develop knowledge and products on the distribution and ecology of living marine resources and provide resource managers, scientists and the public with an improved ecosystem basis for making decisions. The Biogeography Branch monitors reef fishes and benthic communities in three study areas: (1) St. John, USVI, (2) Buck Island, St. Croix, USVI, and (3) La Parguera, Puerto Rico. In addition, the Branch has characterized the reef fish and benthic communities in the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary and around the island of Vieques, Puerto Rico. Reef fish data are collected using a stratified random sampling design and stringent measurement protocols. Over time, the sampling design has changed in order to meet different management objectives (i.e. identification of essential fish habitat vs. monitoring), but the designs have always remained: • Probabilistic – to allow inferences to a larger targeted population, • Objective – to satisfy management objectives, and • Stratified – to reduce sampling costs and obtain population estimates for strata. There are two aspects of the sampling design which are now under consideration and are the focus of this report: first, the application of a sample frame, identified as a set of points or grid elements from which a sample is selected; and second, the application of subsampling in a two-stage sampling design. To evaluate these considerations, the pros and cons of implementing a sampling frame and subsampling are discussed. Particular attention is paid to the impacts of each design on accuracy (bias), feasibility and sampling cost (precision). Further, this report presents an analysis of data to determine the optimal number of subsamples to collect if subsampling were used. (PDF contains 19 pages)

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One third of the people on earth who are described as living in absolute poverty are found today in India. “These people,” says Mr B K Satpathy, “are caught in a poverty trap’.” “Poverty trap?” we ask. “These are creative weavers; their cloth has a distinctive style, but those who supply their thread also take away and sell the cloth, paying just a small labor cost for each saree. If they are skilled and work hard this amounts to only 25-30 rupees (60-70 US cents) per day.” Under this arrangement, weaving does not provide enough to live on, and people are seeking ways to escape their entrapment in poverty. (Pdf contains 6 pages).

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The first bilateral study of methods of biological sampling and biological methods of water quality assessment took place during June 1977 on selected sampling sites in the catchment of the River Trent (UK). The study was arranged in accordance with the protocol established by the joint working group responsible for the Anglo-Soviet Environmental Agreement. The main purpose of the bilateral study in Nottingham was for some of the methods of sampling and biological assessment used by UK biologists to be demonstrated to their Soviet counterparts and for the Soviet biologists to have the opportunity to test these methods at first hand in order to judge the potential of any of these methods for use within the Soviet Union. This paper is concerned with the nine river stations in the Trent catchment.