Demand for fish in Sub-Saharan Africa: the past and the future

The Sub-Saharan region of Africa accounted for only 5.5% of the world's demand for fish from 1989 to 1991, inspite of comprising 9% of the global population. This study was carried out to determine the future demand for fish in the Sub-Saharan region. Fish accounts for approximately 10% of animal protein consumed. It is prominent in the diet of the poor since cured and smoked fish is a cheaper source of protein than meat or eggs. The average per capita consumption in 1992 was about 8 kg compared to 30 kg globally. Fish is prominent in the diets of people near coastal areas and large inland water bodies and a total of 40% of fish consumed is freshwater fish. Consumption is rising in the coastal areas but falling inland, probably due to drought and overexploitation resulting in an inadequate supply. Aquaculture has not been widely adopted and does not contribute substantially to the region's supply. To determine future demand and trends, a regression analysis was carried out at the country level with FAO data on fish consumption from 1960 to 1992, using several proxies for disposable income, cost of fishery products, changes in tastes and national differences in the tradition of fish consumption. An aggregate increase in fish consumption of nearly 2.7% annually over the next few years was predicted with a strong correlation between increases in income, prices and population. Real income was a significant and positive determinant of fish consumption, even though consumption increaed more slowly than income. Given the high projected rate of population increase, the growth rate in overall fish consumption actually implies a reduction in per capita fish consumption of 0.31% annually. If technological progress can improve production and supply, aquaculture could have a significant impact on fish consumption in the region.

The future of shrimp processing industry in India

The future of the shrimp industry in India depends entirely on our export markets. Therefore the future of the industry must be related to the demand for shrimps in foreign markets. The most important market today for India is the United States. In the United States the domestic production of shrimps which was about 112 million pounds in 1950 has increased only slightly to 139.6 million pounds in 1965. However the consumption during the same period increased from 119.5 million pounds to 274.2 million pounds - the gap between home production and consumption is made up by imports.

The increased fishing pressure and the future of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria, Uganda

The Uganda sector of Lake Victoria occupies 29,580 km2 (43%). The lake used to boast of a multi-species fishery but presently relies on three major species Lates niloticus, Oreochromis niloticus and Rastrineobola argentea. During the past decade the total fish production on the Ugandan sector increased drastically from 17,000 tonnes in 1981 to about 13,000 tonnes 1991, indicating a healthy state of the fishery. This was contributed by a combination of factors including the explosive establishment of the introduced L. niloticus which contributed 60.8% in 1991 and the increase in the number of fishing canoes from 3470 in 1988 to 8000 in 1990. Isolated fishery resources studies carried out in different areas of the lake since 1971 seem, however, to indicate contrary trends in the available stocks and, therefore, the status of the fishery. In the experimental fishery, continued decline in catch rates have been recorded. Similarly, in the commercial fishery catch per unit of effort has been considerably poor (33 kg per canoe during January - March 1992) and the average size of individual fish laRded continued to decline, obviously pointing at possible over-fishing. This, therefore, calls for further urgent research on the available stocks for proper management strategies to be formulated.

The future prospects of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria, Uganda

Experimental trawling during the period 1981/86 and analysis of past commercial catch landings, mainly in the northern portion of Lake Victoria have indicated that the standing stocks and therefore, the estimates of sustainable yields of the most important fish species have unquestionably changed since the 1969/71 comprehensive lake-wide stock assessment survey. Lake Victoria which was originally a multi-species fishery now relies on two introduced species (Lates niloticus and Oreochromis niloticus) and one indigenous cyprinid (Rastrineobola argentea). Most of the traditional fish species, including the once dominant haplochromines, have either declined or disappeared. The catch rates in the experimental trawl catches declined from 797 kg/hr in 1969/71 to 575 kg/hr in 1981 and 166 kg/hr in 1985. The contribution of L. niloticus in the trawl catch increased from 0.9% in 1981 to 95.6% in 1985 while the contribution of the haplochromines decreased from about 91% to about 1% over the same period. The mean size of the individual fish caught (particularly the Nile perch) was also on the decline. Similar trends were also observed in the commercial fishery. However, recent observations in the Lake Kyoga commercial fishery that O. niloticus has now surpassed L.niloticus in importance may create more uncertainty regarding the future trends of the fish stocks of Lake Victoria. Inspite of the above situation, developments to increasingly exploit the fish stocks of the lake for export continue to take place. A number of fish processing and/or handling plants have been established in the Jinja, Kampala and Entebbe areas of the lake. Each of these plants is capable of handling upwards of 10 tons of fish a day, the target fish being L. niloticus and O. niloticus.

PICES Science: the first ten years and a look to the future

Introduction [pdf, 0.17 MB] Warren S. Wooster [pdf, 0.12 MB] PICES - the first decade, and beyond Paul H. LeBlond [pdf, 0.03 MB] The Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee: The first decade D.E. Harrison and Neville Smith [pdf, 0.04 MB] Ocean observing systems and prediction - the next ten years Tsutomu Ikeda and Patricia A. Wheeler [pdf, 0.85 MB] Ocean impacts from the bottom of the food web to the top: Biological Oceanography Committee (BIO) retrospective Timothy R. Parsons [pdf, 0.2 MB] Future needs for biological oceanographic studies in the Pacific Ocean Douglas E. Hay, Richard J. Beamish, George W. Boehlert, Vladimir I. Radchenko, Qi-Sheng Tang, Tokio Wada, Daniel W. Ware and Chang-Ik Zhang [pdf, 0.2 MB] Ten years FIS in PICES: An introspective, retrospective, critical and constructive review of fishery science in PICES Richard F. Addison, John E. Stein and Alexander V. Tkalin [pdf, 0.12 MB] Marine Environmental Committee in review Robie W. Macdonald, Brian Morton, Richard F. Addison and Sophia C. Johannessen [pdf, 1.89 MB] Marine environmental contaminant issues in the North Pacific: What are the dangers and how do we identify them? R. Ian Perry, Anne B. Hollowed and Takashige Sugimoto [pdf, 0.36 MB] The PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program: Why, how, and what next? List of acronyms [pdf, 0.07 MB] (Document contains 108 pages)

Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.

The future for fish in the food and livelihoods of the poor in Asia

This article is based on the study, Strategies and Options for Increasing and Sustaining Benefits from Fisheries and Aquaculture Production to Benefit Poor Households in Asia carried out under ADB-RETA 5945, and implemented by the WorldFish Center in partnership with nine participating Asian countries.

ICLARM software projects: back to the future

The different computer softwares developed by the International Center for Living Aquatic Resources (ICLARM) and its functions and uses in fisheries science are presented.

Lanternfish heaven: the future of world fisheries?

The differences between fishes in their size, behavior and food make them more or less vulnerable to fishing pressure. Large predators, long-lived fish, most trawl species and pelagic schooling fishes will possibly become extinct, to be replaced by small nonschooling unpalatable species such as lanternfish.