A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

"Cool" vs. "warm" winter precipitation and its effect on streamflow in California

Precipitation is a difficult variable to understand and predict. In this study, monthly precipitation in California is divided into two classes according to the monthly temperature to better diagnose the atmospheric circulation that causes precipitation, and to illustrate how temperature compounds the precipitation to runoff process.

Surface water temperature of Windermere. Monthly and yearly totals of degree-days centigrade and monthly mean temperatures, 1933 to 1975

The surface temperature of Windermere has been recorded by the staff of the Freshwater Biological Association on every weekday (with a few minor exceptions) since 11 January 1933. This publication presents this information in a form which can easily be used by individual research workers. There are 43 tables (1 for each year, 1933-1975) which give the data, expressed as degree-days centigrade. The tables show for each month the number of degree-days above each temperature from 0 degree C to the highest recorded, at 1 degree C intervals. Mean temperatures are obtained by dividing the number of degree-days over 0 degree C by the relevant number of days. The advantage of degree-days rather than mean temperatures is that degree-days are additive so data for any desired periods may be combined quickly and simply. Seasonal results for spring, summer, autumn and winter are presented in tabular form, as are selected totals for comparisons between years. Further tables give the mean temperature in each month of the year, and the frequency distributions of monthly mean temperatures.

Seasonal Changes in Chemical Composition of Eurasion Watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and Water Temperature at Two Sites in northern California: implications for Herbivory

We compared seasonal changes in Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.) characteristics and water temperature for a shallow poind in Davis, CA, and the Truckee River, near Tahoe City, CA. Tissue C and N were 15% lower in plants from the Truckee River than in plants from the Davis pond. Seasonal fluctuations in tissue N were also different. Mean phenolic acid content of Truckee River palnts (162yM g-1) was less than those from the shallow pond (195 yM g-1). Phenolic acid content was positively related to tissue C for Truckee River and Davis pond plants and, tissue C:N ratio for Truckee River plants. Mean monthly water temperature (1990 to 1998) for the Truckee River site was less than 20 C. Water temperatures were warmer in August and September at this site. However, Eurasian watermilfoil collected during these months was characterized by lower levels of tissue N. During a 29-month period beginning January 1994, mean monthly water temperature for the Davis pond exceeded 20 C, only during July to September 1995. Tissue N was generally greater during summer for watermilfoil growing in the pond. These results imply that Eurasian watermilfoil biological control agents may have different developmental rates in these habitats, and thus different impacts on watermilfoil populations.

Water temperature studies on the R. North Tyne after impoundment by Kielder dam. 3. Preliminary examination of water temperature data

The report describes the results of preliminary analyses of data obtained from a series of water temperature loggers sited at various distances (0.8 to 21.8 km) downstream of Kielder dam on the River North Tyne and in two natural tributaries. The report deals with three aspects of the water temperature records: An analysis of an operational aspect of the data sets for selected stations, a simple examination of the effects of impoundment upon water temperature at or close to the point of release, relative to natural river temperatures, and an examination of rate of change of monthly means of daily mean, maximum, minimum and range (maximum - minimum) with distance downstream of the point of release during 1983.

Surface temperature and precipitation variations in the western U.S. and their relation to large scale circulation indices [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An analysis of the principal components of surface temperature and precipitation in the western U.S. is presented. Data consist of monthly mean temperature and total precipitation for 66 climate divisions west of the Continental Divide, for the years 1931-1984. The analysis is repeated for three separate combinations of months - the water year (Oct - Sept), the cool season (Oct - Mar) and the warm season (Apr - Sept). Inspection of monthly precipitation climatology indicates that selection of these combinations of months results in very few awkward splittings of the natural precipitation seasons found in the West.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Environmental and social impact monitoring of the Bujagali Hydropower Project (BHPP), Uganda Fisheries Component: monthly patterns in physico-chemical conditions and fish catch in the immediate vicinity of the Bujagali Hydropower construction site, 29th September - 28th October 2007

Following the commencement of construction works of a 250 MW hydropower plant at Dumbbell Island in the Upper Victoria Nile in September 2007, BEL requested NaFIRRI to conduct continuous monitoring of fish catches at two transects i.e. the immediate upstream transect of the project site (Kalange-Makwanzi) and the immediate downstream .transect (Buyala-Kikubamutwe). The routine monitoring surveys were designed to be conducted twice a week at each of the tWo transects. It was anticipated that major immediate impacts were to occur during construction, and these needed to be known by BEL as part of a mitigation strategy. For example, the construction of it cofferdam could be accompanied by rapid changes in water quality and quantity downstream of the construction. These changes in turn could affect the fish catch and would probably be missed by the quarterly monitoring already in place. Therefore, a major cbjective of the more regular and rapid monitoring was to discern immediate impacts of construction activities by focusing on selected water quality parameters (total suspended solids, water conductivity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH) and fish catch characteristics (total catch, catch rates and value of the catch)