3 resultados para model testing

em Aquatic Commons


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The wave data collected on board Ins Kistna from Bay of Bengal during July to August, 1964 and January, February and April, 1965 are presented. The wave parameters are analyzed and given in a form most suitable for model testing of ships. The variation of wave height with Beaufort number is remarkable. Wave periods from 2 to 10 seconds are observed with maximum frequency in the range of 2 to 5 seconds. The heights and period obtained are compared with those obtained by previous workers for the North Atlantic region and Bay of Bengal. The influence of the wave period 2 to 5 seconds on the rolling, pitching and heaving periods of medium size vessels is also discussed.

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The general method of study of the performance of any dynamic system is to have an understanding of the various influencing factors. These include the dynamic parameters developed by the system as well as the external factors. In the case of a trawl net under operation there are many hydrodynamic forces acting on it. Since the trawl net is operated much below the water surface, visual observation is rather difficult. Model testing is an alternative method. However, as a model cannot be an exact replica of the original in all respects, model testing has only a limited application and an ultimate test with the actual gear in the true field conditions is necessary.

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We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.