A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Validation of a semi-Lagrangian, canonical regression model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A local climate model (LCM) has been developed to simulate the modern and 18 ka climate of the southwestern United States. ... LCM solutions indicate summers were about 1°C cooler and winters 11°C cooler at 18 ka. Annual PREC increased 68% at 18 ka, with large increases in spring and fall PREC and diminished summer monsoonal PREC. ... Validation of simulations of 18 ka climate indicate general agreement with proxy estimates of climate for that time. However, the LCM estimates of summer temperatures are about 5 to 10°C higher than estimates from proxy reconstructions.

Toward canonical trophic aggregations

The attractiveness of the trophic concept is that it was the first attempt at a holistic perspective on an ecosystem which met with any degree of success. Just as temperature, pressure, and volume allow one to characterize the incomprehensible multitude of particulate motions in a simple gas, the hope is that a small set of figures, such as trophic storages or trophic efficiencies, permit one to compare two ecosystems with overwhelmingly disparate complexities. Thus, if it were possible to demonstrate that an arbitrary network of ecosystem flows could be reduced to a trophic configuration, the aggregation process thus defined would become a key component of the evolving discipline of "macroscopic ecology" (see also Odum 1977 and Ulanowicz 1979).

A scientific forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept. Proceedings of the Forum: 23 January 2008, Keating Education Center, Mote Marine Laboratory, Sarasota, Florida

The Scientific Forum on the Gulf of Mexico: The Islands in the Stream Concept took place in January 2008 in Sarasota, Florida. The purpose of the meeting was to bring together scientists and managers from around the Gulf of Mexico to discuss a range of topics on our knowledge of the Gulf of Mexico, from its geology to larger-scale connectivity to the Caribbean region, and their applications to the concept of a more integrated approach to area-based management. The forum included six panels of invited experts who spoke on the oceanographic and biological features in the Gulf of Mexico, including connections with Mexico and the Mesoamerican barrier reef system, and the legal and regulatory structure currently in place. The charge to the group was to share information, identify gaps in our knowledge, identify additional potential areas for protection, and discuss available science about connectivity and the potential value of establishing a marine protected area network in the Gulf of Mexico. (PDF has 108 pages.)

Atlas of abundance and distribution patterns of ichthyoplankton from the Northeast Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea ecosystems: based on research conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (1972–1996)

This regional atlas summarizes and illustrates the distribution and abundance patterns of fish eggs and larvae of 102 taxa within 34 families found in the Northeast Pacific Ocean including the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and U.S. west coast ecosystems. Data were collected over a 20+ year period (1972–1996) by the Recruitment Processes Program of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). Ichthyoplankton catch records used in this atlas were generated from 11,379 tows taken during 100 cruises. For each taxon, general life history data are briefly summarized from the literature. Published information on distribution patterns of eggs and larvae are reviewed for the study area. Data from AFSC ichthyoplankton collections were combined to produce an average spatial distribution for each taxon. These data were also used to estimate mean abundance and percent occurrence by year and month, and relative abundance by larval length and season. Abundance from each tow was measured as catch per 10 m2 surface area. A larval distribution and abundance map was produced with a geographic information system using ArcInfo software. For taxa with identifiable pelagic eggs, distribution maps showing presence or absence of eggs are presented. Presence or absence of adults in the study area is mapped based on recent literature and data from AFSC groundfish surveys. Distributional records for adults and early life history stages revealed several new range extensions. (PDF file contains 288 pages.)

The Marine Science Library, Resource Center : poster presentation

The first concept of a new library was introduced in 2001 by a faculty member at the University of Texas Marine Science Institute. The suggestion for the construction of a new library was based on two specific reasons: existing library is located in one of the most vulnerable buildings to hurricane damage and the library has outgrown its current space. This presentation provides a general overview of the current status and changing needs of the Marine Science Library and how the idea of a new library finally became a reality

An analysis of migratory salmonid catch effort data, derived from anglers' log books, 1991

1000 log books were issued to anglers of which 236 were returned, those from the rivers Derwent, Kent, Lune and Ribble accounted for the vast majority. The Derwent had the highest catch rate of these rivers: one salmon every 13.89 hours followed by the Lune, Kent and Ribble at 16.39, 18.87 and 35.71 hours, respectively. For sea trout the Lune, Derwent and Ribble had a catch rate of approximately one fish every 10.0 hours (9.8, 10.0 and 10.64 hours),and for the Kent one fish per 16.1 hours fished. Salmon angling visits were, in general,longer than those for sea trout being between 2 and 6 hours as opposed to 2 to 4 hours. On the majority of visits (>80%) no fish were caught and was the same for salmon and sea trout. For salmon the majority of fish were caught on fly, spinner or worm, and the least on prawn. For sea trout fly predominated. The majority of salmon caught were less than 91b in weight and were presumed to be grilse (1 sea winter). The majority of the sea trout caught weighed between 1 and 31b. The pattern of catch, effort, CPUE, abundance and catchability for salmon and sea trout were modelled using the data from the rivers Derwent, Kent and Lune. Flow significantly influenced catch, effort and catchability of salmon which had entered in a particular month. For sea trout flow was not significantly correlated with any of the dependent variables. The catchability coefficient for salmon, determined from the total number of fish, remained relatively constant over the period June to October indicating that CPUE was a reasonable measure of within season abundance. This was not found to be the case for sea trout.

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Impact pathway analysis for research planning: the case of aquatic resources research in the WorldFish Center

In line with its mandate of poverty reduction and sustainable development, the WorldFish Center is orienting its research towards high impact scientific activity. Identifying such activities is the task of prospective impact assessment, in turn based on impact pathway analysis. The paper describes a framework for analyzing benefits from aquatic resources research, the relevant research categories, pathways to impact by category, and indicators along each pathway that can be estimated in order to quantify probable research impact.

Investing in Africa: the WorldFish Center's African strategy in summary

Across much of Africa, freshwater and coastal fisheries provide an important source of food and livelihood for many millions of people. In addition, the aquaculture potential of the continent has only recently begun to be developed. To help sustain these capture fisheries, support the emergence of aquaculture and foster the contribution of both to sustainable livelihoods and improved food security, the WorldFish Center is increasing its investment in Africa. The framework for this investment is provided by a new Strategy for Africa and West Asia 2002-2006 that identifies priorities for the Center’s work in rivers and floodplains, lakes and reservoirs, coastal fisheries, aquaculture, policy research and capacity building. The present article summarizes the issues being addressed by the Center and describes initial research priorities.

Catching and rearing postlarval cleaner shrimp for the aquarium trade: results from a WorldFish Center project in Solomon Islands

Between 1999 and 2003, the WorldFish Center in Solomon Islands conducted research into the feasibility of a new fishery based on the capture and culture of postlarval coral reef fish for the live fish trade. The work was carried out in two phases: a research phase from late 1999 to the end of 2002; and a “finetuning” phase in 2003. Most of the species were of value to the marine aquarium trade, with very few live reef food fish recorded. The most valuable ornamentals were the banded cleaner shrimp, Stenopus species. Cleaner shrimp were harvested using crest nets, the method being modified with the addition of a solid, water-retaining cod-end designed to increase survival at capture. Grow-out techniques were improved by rearing the shrimp separately in jars to prevent aggression. The jars were painted black to protect the shrimp from sunlight. An economic model using experimental catch data and farm gate prices indicates that the fishery based on shrimp, supplemented with small numbers of lobster and fish is economically viable. The next step will be setting up a demonstration farm in a village in the Western Province of Solomon Islands.

A History of Benthic Research in the NMFS Northeast Fisheries Science Center

The Northeast Fisheries Science Center of NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service has a long history of research on benthic invertebrates and habitats in support of the management of living marine resources. These studies began in the 1870's under Spencer F. Baird's guidance as part of an effort to characterize the Nation's fisheries and living marine resources and their ecological interactions. This century and a quarter of research has included many benthic invertebrate studies, including community characterizations, shellfish biology and culture, pathology, ecosystem energy budget modeling, habitat evaluations, assessments of human impacts, toxic chemical bioaccumulation in demersal food webs, habitat or endangered species management, benthic autecology, systematics (to define new species and species population boundaries), and other benthic studies. Here we review the scope of past and current studies as a background for strategic research planning and suggest areas for further research to support NOAA's goals of sustainable fisheries management, healthy coastal ecosystems, and protected species populations.