The predicting power of models for eutrophication

Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

Aquatic and fisheries survey of the upper Victoria Nile: a report prepared for AES Nile Power Bujagali hydropower project, final report

The aquatic ecosystem of the Upper Victoria Nile is part of a wider complex of water bodies (lakes and rivers) in Uganda that is of immense socioeconomic importance, especially the fisheries. A source of food, income, energy, irrigation and drinking water, the protection, sustainable use and management of the Upper Victoria Nile water resources are vital to Uganda's economy. The Upper Victoria Nile,due to its abundance of socio-economic benefits,provides a significant contribution to Uganda's economy. The fisheries contribute to the sector as a major source of the export earnings, second to coffee (NEMA,1996), sustain small fishing villages,provide income and generally improve nutrition. Apart from the socio-economic significance of the fisheries,the riverine features of the Upper Victoria Nile, especially its hydropower potential,distinguish this river from the rest of the aquatic ecosystems in the country.