20 resultados para independent predictor
em Aquatic Commons
Resumo:
Rockfish species are notoriously difficult to sample with multispecies bottom trawl survey methods. Typically, biomass estimates have high coefficients of variation and can fluctuate outside the bounds of biological reality from year to year. This variation may be due in part to their patchy distribution related to very specific habitat preferences. We successfully modeled the distribution of five commercially important and abundant rockf ish species. A two-stage modeling method (modeling both presence-absence and abundance) and a collection of important habitat variables were used to predict bottom trawl survey catch per unit of effort. The resulting models explained between 22% and 66% of the variation in rockfish distribution. The models were largely driven by depth, local slope, bottom temperature, abundance of coral and sponge, and measures of water column productivity (i.e., phytoplankton and zooplankton). A year-effect in the models was back-transformed and used as an index of the time series of abundance. The abundance index trajectories of three of five species were similar to the existing estimates of their biomass. In the majority of cases the habitat-based indices exhibited less interannual variability and similar precision when compared with stratified survey-based biomass estimates. These indices may provide for stock assessment models a more stable alternative to current biomass estimates produced by the multispecies bottom trawl survey in the Gulf of Alaska.
Resumo:
Millions of crabs are sorted and discarded in freezing conditions each year in Alaskan fisheries for Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio). However, cold exposures vary widely over the fishing season and among different vessels, and mortalities are difficult to estimate. A shipboard experiment was conducted to determine whether simple behavioral observations can be used to evaluate crab condition after low-temperature exposures. Crabs were systematically subjected to cold in seven different exposure treatments. They were then tested for righting behavior and six different ref lex actions and held to monitor mortality. Crabs lost limbs, showed ref lex impairment, and died in direct proportion to increases in cold exposure. Righting behavior was a poor predictor of mortality, whereas reflex impairment (scored as the sum of reflex actions that were lost) was an excellent predictor. This composite index could be measured quickly and easily in hand, and logistic regression revealed that the relationship between reflex impairment and mortality correctly predicted 80.0% of the mortality and survival for C. bairdi, and 79.4% for C. opilio. These relationships provide substantial improvements over earlier approaches to mortality estimation and were independent of crab size and exposure temperature.
Resumo:
Delayed mortality associated with discarded crabs and fishes has ordinarily been observed through tag and recovery studies or during prolonged holding in deck tanks, and there is need for a more efficient assessment method. Chionoecetes bairdi (Tanner crab) and C. opilio (snow crab) collected with bottom trawls in Bering Sea waters off Alaska were evaluated for reflexes and injuries and held onboard to track mortality. Presence or absence of six reflex actions was determined and combined to calculate a reflex impairment index for each species. Logistic regression revealed that reflex impairment provided an excellent predictor of delayed mortality in C. opilio (91% correct predictions). For C. bairdi, reflex impairment, along with injury score, resulted in 82.7% correct predictions of mortality, and reflex impairment alone resulted in 79.5% correct predictions. The relationships between reflex impairment score and mortality were independent of crab gender, size, and shell condition, and predicted mortality in crabs with no obvious external damage. These relationships provide substantial improvement over earlier predictors of mortality and will help to increase the scope and replication of fishing and handling experiments. The general approach of using reflex actions to predict mortality should be equally valuable for a wide range of crustacean species.
Resumo:
Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.
Resumo:
The population structure and abundance of the American lobster (Homarus americanus) stock in the Gulf of Maine are defined by data derived from a fishery-independent trawl survey program conducted by the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS). Few sampling stations in the survey area are located inshore, in particular along coastal Maine. According to statistics, however, more than two thirds of the lobster landings come from inshore waters within three miles off the coast of Maine. In order to include an inshore survey program, complementary to the NMFS survey, the Maine Department of Marine Resources (DMR) initialized an inshore survey program in 2000. The survey was modeled on the NMFS survey program, making these two survey programs comparable. Using data from both survey programs, we evaluated the population structure of the American lobster in the Gulf of Maine. Our findings indicate that lobsters in the Gulf of Maine tend to have a size-dependent inshore-off-shore distribution; smaller lobsters are more likely to stay inshore and larger lobsters are more likely to stay offshore. The DMR inshore and NMFS survey programs focused on different areas in the Gulf of Maine and likely targeted different segments of the stock. We suggest that data from both survey programs be used to assess the lobster stock and to describe the dynamics of the stock in the Gulf of Maine.
Resumo:
Estimates of the Q/B ratio and parameters of equations to 'predict' Q/B values for 116 fish stocks in the Gulf of Salamanca, Colombia are presented. A compilation of these estimates available for Caribbean Sea fishes (264 stocks) is also provided for comparison purposes. General trends in the value of Q/B resulting from differences in the equation and parameter values used are briefly discussed.
Resumo:
From 2002 through 2008, the Mississippi Laboratories of the NMFS Southeast Fisheries Science Center, NOAA, conducted fishery-independent bottom trawl surveys for continental shelf and outer-continental shelf deep-water fishes and invertebrates of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (50–500 m bottom depths). Five-hundred and ninety species were captured at 797 bottom trawl locations. Standardized survey gear and randomly selected survey sites have facilitated development of a fishery-independent time series that characterizes species diversity, distributions, and catch per unit effort. The fishery-independent surveys provide synoptic descriptions of deep-water fauna potentially impacted by various anthropogenic factors.