Using forecasts to protect Federal facilities in the path of Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel made landfall as a Category 2 Hurricane on 18 September 2003, on the North Carolina Outer Banks between Cape Lookout and Cape Hatteras, then coursed northwestward through Pamlico Sound and west of Chesapeake Bay where it downgraded to a tropical storm. Wind damage on the west and southwest shores of Pamlico Sound and the western shore of Chesapeake Bay was moderate, but major damage resulted from the storm tide. The NOAA, National Ocean Service, National Centers for Coastal Ocean Sciences, Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research at Beaufort, North Carolina and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomedical Research Branch at Oxford, Maryland have hurricane preparedness plans in place. These plans call for tropical storms and hurricanes to be tracked carefully through NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) watches, warnings, and advisories. When a hurricane watch changes to a hurricane warning for the areas of Beaufort or Oxford, documented hurricane preparation plans are activated. Isabel exacted some wind damage at both Beaufort and Oxford. Storm tide caused damage at Oxford, where area-wide flooding isolated the laboratory for many hours. Storm tide also caused damage at Beaufort. Because of their geographic locations on or near the open ocean (Beaufort) or on or near large estuaries (Beaufort and Oxford), storm tide poses a major threat to these NOAA facilities and the safety of federal employees. Damage from storm surge and windblown water depends on the track and intensity of a storm. One tool used to predict storm surge is the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model of the NWS, which provides valuable surge forecasts that aid in hurricane preparation.

Net phytoplankton and zooplankton in the New York Bight, January 1976 to February 1978, with comments on the effects of wind, Gulf Stream eddies, and slope water intrusions

Results are given of monthly net phytoplankton and zooplankton sampling from a 10 m depth in shelf, slope, and Gulf Stream eddy water along a transect running southeastward from Ambrose Light, New York, in 1976, 1977, and early 1978. Plankton abundance and temperature at 10 m and sea surface salinity at each station are listed. The effects of atmospheric forcing and Gulf Stream eddies on plankton distribution and abundance arc discussed. The frequency of Gulf Stream eddy passage through the New York Bight corresponded with the frequency of tropical-subtropical net phytoplankton in the samples. Gulf Stream eddies injected tropical-subtropical zooplankton onto the shelf and removed shelfwater and its entrained zooplankton. Wind-induced offshore Ekman transport corresponded generally with the unusual timing of two net phytoplankton maxima. Midsummer net phytoplankton maxima were recorded following the passage of Hurricane Belle (August 1976) and a cold front (July 1977). Tropical-subtropical zooplankton which had been injected onto the outer shelf by Gulf Stream eddies were moved to the inner shelf by a wind-induced current moving up the Hudson Shelf Valley. (PDF file contains 47 pages.)

Wave forecasts associated with hurricane landfalls in the vicinity of Cape Lookout, North Carolina

Hurricanes can cause extensive damage to the coastline and coastal communities due to wind-generated waves and storm surge. While extensive modeling efforts have been conducted regarding storm surge, there is far less information about the effects of waves on these communities and ecosystems as storms make landfall. This report describes a preliminary use of NCCOS’ WEMo (Wave Exposure Model; Fonseca and Malhotra 2010) to compute the wind wave exposure within an area of approximately 25 miles radius from Beaufort, North Carolina for estuarine waters encompassing Bogue Sound, Back Sound and Core Sound during three hurricane landfall scenarios. The wind wave heights and energy of a site was a computation based on wind speed, direction, fetch and local bathymetry. We used our local area (Beaufort, North Carolina) as a test bed for this product because it is frequently impacted by hurricanes and we had confidence in the bathymetry data. Our test bed conditions were based on two recent Hurricanes that strongly affected this area. First, we used hurricane Isabel which made landfall near Beaufort in September 2003. Two hurricane simulations were run first by passing hurricane Isabel along its actual path (east of Beaufort) and second by passing the same storm to the west of Beaufort to show the potential effect of the reversed wind field. We then simulated impacts by a hurricane (Ophelia) with a different landfall track, which occurred in September of 2005. The simulations produced a geographic description of wave heights revealing the changing wind and wave exposure of the region as a consequence of landfall location and storm intensity. This highly conservative simulation (water levels were that of low tide) revealed that many inhabited and developed shorelines would receive wind waves for prolonged periods of time at heights far above that found during even the top few percent of non-hurricane events. The simulations also provided a sense for how rapidly conditions could transition from moderate to highly threatening; wave heights were shown to far exceed normal conditions often long before the main body of the storm arrived and importantly, at many locations that could impede and endanger late-fleeing vessels seeking safe harbor. When joined with other factors, such as storm surge and event duration, we anticipate that the WEMo forecasting tool will have significant use by local emergency agencies and the public to anticipate the relative exposure of their property arising as a function of storm location and may also be used by resource managers to examine the effects of storms in a quantitative fashion on local living marine resources.

Some effects of Hurricane Agnes on water quality in the Patuxent River Estuary

A post-Agnes study that emphasized environmental factors was carried out on the Patuxent River estuary with weekly sampling at eight stations from 28 June t o 30 August 1972. Spatial and temporal changes in the distribution of many factors , e.g., salinity , dissolved oxygen, seston, particulate carbon and nitrogen, inorganic and organic fractions of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus, and chlorophyll a were studied and compared t o extensive earlier records. Patterns shown by the present data were compared especially with a local heavy storm that occurred in the Patuxent drainage basin during July 1969. Estimates were made of the amounts of material contributed via upland drainage. A first approximation indicated that 14.8 x l0 (3) metric tons of seston were contributed t o the head of the estuary between 21 and 24 June. (PDF contains 46 pages)

Influence of the Azores high on sea level pressure and wind, and on precipitation, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Intensification of the Azores high pressure cell in mid-year, with concomitant air flow from the Caribbean into the Pacific, is shown to be responsible for a secondary minimum of precipitation observed along the tropical Pacific coast of the Americas, and to have a measurable effect on wind and precipitation several hundred kilometers offshore. SPANISH: La intensificación de la célula de alta presión de las Azores a mediados del año, y la corriente de aire concomitante que entra al Pacífico procedente del Caribe, se demuestra que es la causante de un mínimo secundario de precipitación observado a lo largo de la costa tropical de las Américas en el Pacífico y que tiene un efecto mensurable sobre el viento y la precipitación varios cientos de kilómetros mar afuera. (PDF contains 23 pages.)

Wind climate trends in the Pacific Northwest and the implications to renewable energy supply

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): This paper examines the influence of wind climate variations on new Pacific Northwest renewable energy sources. Wind represents a potentially valuable supplemental source of energy in the region. ... The recent period of weaker winds may be associated with a stronger North Pacific Low in the last decade. This would result in winter storms more often being deflected farther north, to Canada. Also, in the last dozen years, lower SOI values were common. Other investigators have found low SOI to be associated with drier conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

Interdecadal variability in the spatial structure of wind and SST in the California Current system

The physical environment of eastern boundary current systems is rarely uniform in time. ENSO and other perturbations produce profound anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean on interannual to decadal and century time scales. ... The objective of this paper is to describe the temporal variability in the spatial texture of the California Current system, a major eastern boundary current system off the west coast of North America, to provide a base from which to evaluate the effect of climate change - in the recent past, at present, and for the future.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.

Features of wave field, its effect to erosion - deposition processes in the Cua Dai (Hoi An), Cai river mouth (Nha Trang) and Phan Thiet Bay in typical local wind conditions

Based on the hydrodynamic model and Shore Protection Manual (CERC - USA) we have calculated wave field characteristics in the typical wind conditions (wind velocity equal to 13m/s in the high frequency direction of the wind regime). Comparison between measured and calculated wave parameters was presented and these results were corresponded to each other. The following main wave characteristics were calculated: -Pattern of the refraction wave field. -Average wave height field. -Longshore current velocity field in surf zone. From distribution features of wave field characteristics in research areas, it could be summarized as following: - The formation of wave fields in the research areas was unequal because of their local difference of hydrometeorological conditions, river discharge, bottom relief… - At Cuadai (Dai mouth, Hoian) area in the N direction of incident wave field, wave has caused serious variation of the coastline. The coastline in the whole region, especially, at the south of the mouth was eroded and the foreland in the north of the mouth was deposited. - At Cai river mouth (Nhatrang) area in the E direction of incident wave field, wave has effected strongly and directly to the inshore and channel structure. - At Phanthiet bay area in the SW direction of incident wave field, wave has effected strongly to the whole shoreline from Da point to Ne point and caused serious erosion.