Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

The potential consequences of climate variability and change on coastal areas and marine resources: report of the Coastal Areas and Marine Resources Sector Team, U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, U.S. Global Change Research Program

Coastal and marine ecosystems support diverse and important fisheries throughout the nation’s waters, hold vast storehouses of biological diversity, and provide unparalleled recreational opportunities. Some 53% of the total U.S. population live on the 17% of land in the coastal zone, and these areas become more crowded every year. Demands on coastal and marine resources are rapidly increasing, and as coastal areas become more developed, the vulnerability of human settlements to hurricanes, storm surges, and flooding events also increases. Coastal and marine environments are intrinsically linked to climate in many ways. The ocean is an important distributor of the planet’s heat, and this distribution could be strongly influenced by changes in global climate over the 21st century. Sea-level rise is projected to accelerate during the 21st century, with dramatic impacts in low-lying regions where subsidence and erosion problems already exist. Many other impacts of climate change on the oceans are difficult to project, such as the effects on ocean temperatures and precipitation patterns, although the potential consequences of various changes can be assessed to a degree. In other instances, research is demonstrating that global changes may already be significantly impacting marine ecosystems, such as the impact of increasing nitrogen on coastal waters and the direct effect of increasing carbon dioxide on coral reefs. Coastal erosion is already a widespread problem in much of the country and has significant impacts on undeveloped shorelines as well as on coastal development and infrastructure. Along the Pacific Coast, cycles of beach and cliff erosion have been linked to El Niño events that elevate average sea levels over the short term and alter storm tracks that affect erosion and wave damage along the coastline. These impacts will be exacerbated by long-term sea-level rise. Atlantic and Gulf coastlines are especially vulnerable to long-term sea-level rise as well as any increase in the frequency of storm surges or hurricanes. Most erosion events here are the result of storms and extreme events, and the slope of these areas is so gentle that a small rise in sea level produces a large inland shift of the shoreline. When buildings, roads and seawalls block this natural migration, the beaches and shorelines erode, threatening property and infrastructure as well as coastal ecosystems.

Paciano II: the report of a conversation on whaling and science, 1-3 March 2008 (Paciano, Umbria)

In 2006 the UK-based charity, Global Ocean, with local support from the Third Millennium Foundation, convened a Conversation among specialists about the problems facing the conservation of whales. Called "A consultation on whaling", this gathering was held in the ancient village of Paciano, in Umbria near the border with Tuscany, 15 – 17 October 2006. There were 15 participants from 11 countries. Dr Kees Lankester served as moderator. The outcome was an Aide Memoire which served to guide the participants in the run-up to the 2007 meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), held in Anchorage, Alaska, in June. One point of agreement was that a second consultation should be held in the months following the Anchorage meeting, involving some but not necessarily all of the participants in the first, but concentrating this time on scientific issues – especially those encountered in the Scientific Committee of the IWC –with particular attention to informing a wider public about those scientific activities in relation to the problems confronting the IWC and the views of scientists about them. This document is the report of that Conversation, referred to as Paciano II. The moderator was Dr Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara and the Report was written by Kieran Mulvaney in consultation with all participants, and with reference to an Aide Memoire prepared by the Rapporteur, Dr Russell Leaper. The sponsor and organisers have agreed with the general sentiment expressed by participants in Paciano II that further such conversations should be held at roughly yearly intervals and they will try to satisfy that desire. Although these future gatherings would be concerned with the living ocean they would not necessarily be restricted in future to consideration of whales and whaling. Discussions are on-going for selection of a theme which is of both scientific interest and practical concern for conservation of marine life and management of the uses of ocean space. (Document has 18 pages)

Paciano II: a report of a conversation on whaling and science, 1-3 March 2008

In 2006 the UK-based charity, Global Ocean, with local support from the Third Millennium Foundation, convened a Conversation among specialists about the problems facing the conservation of whales. Called "A consultation on whaling", this gathering was held in the ancient village of Paciano, in Umbria near the border with Tuscany, 15 – 17 October 2006. There were 15 participants from 11 countries. Dr Kees Lankester served as moderator. The outcome was an Aide Memoire which served to guide the participants in the run-up to the 2007 meeting of the International Whaling Commission (IWC), held in Anchorage, Alaska, in June. One point of agreement was that a second consultation should be held in the months following the Anchorage meeting, involving some but not necessarily all of the participants in the first, but concentrating this time on scientific issues – especially those encountered in the Scientific Committee of the IWC –with particular attention to informing a wider public about those scientific activities in relation to the problems confronting the IWC and the views of scientists about them. This document is the report of that Conversation, referred to as Paciano II. The moderator was Dr Giuseppe Notarbartolo di Sciara and the Report was written by Kieran Mulvaney in consultation with all participants, and with reference to an Aide Memoire prepared by the Rapporteur, Dr Russell Leaper. The sponsor and organisers have agreed with the general sentiment expressed by participants in Paciano II that further such conversations should be held at roughly yearly intervals and they will try to satisfy that desire. Although these future gatherings would be concerned with the living ocean they would not necessarily be restricted in future to consideration of whales and whaling. Discussions are on-going for selection of a theme which is of both scientific interest and practical concern for conservation of marine life and management of the uses of ocean space. (19 page document)

Tropical river fisheries valuation: background papers to a global synthesis

This report is a compilation of five regional reviews that document the global status of tropical rivers and inland fisheries in three continents: Latin America, Africa and Asia. It explores the role of ‘valuation’ methods and their contribution to policy-making and river fishery management. From the compilation, the best estimate of the global value of inland fisheries for those three continents is US$ 5.58 billion (gross market value), which is equivalent to 19 percent of the current value of annual fish exports from developing countries (US$ 29 billion) for 2004. The compilation shows that there is a general shortage of information on inland fisheries, especially derived from conventional economic valuation methods, though information from economic impact assessment methods and socio-economic and livelihood analysis methods is more widely available. The status of knowledge about the impact of changes in river management on the value of tropical river fisheries is weak and patchy. Although the impacts of large dams on the hydrology, ecology and livelihood support attributes of tropical rivers are well-recognized, there have been only few valuation studies of these issues. The document highlights the need for further valuation studies of tropical river and inland fisheries in developing countries. It underlines how vital it is for policy-makers and other stakeholders to understand the importance of these natural resources in order to make appropriate decisions concerning their role in development policy and illustrates why capacity building in valuation should become a major priority for agencies concerned with fisheries management and policy-making.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of 2001 BASS/MODEL, MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.22 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.31 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop [pdf, 0.65 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Report of the 2001 MONITOR Workshop [pdf, 0.7 Mb] To review ecosystem models for the subarctic gyres Workshop presentations: Sonia D. Batten PICES Continuous Plankton Recorder pilot project Phillip R. Mundy GEM (Exxon Valdez Oil Spill Trustee Council`s "Gulf Ecosystem Monitoring" initiative) and U.S. GOOS plans in the North Pacific Ron McLaren and Brian O`Donnell A proposal for a North Pacific Action group of the international Data Buoy Cooperation Panel Gilberto Gaxiola-Castrol and Sila Najera-Martinez The Mexican oceanographic North Pacific program: IMECOCAL Sydney Levitus Building global ocean profile and plankton databases for scientific research Report of the 2001 REX Workshop [pdf, 1.73 Mb] On temporal variations in size-at-age for fish species in coastal areas around the Pacific Rim Workshop presentations: Brian J. Pyper, Randall M. Peterman, Michael F. Lapointe and Carl J. Walters [pdf, 0.33 Mb] Spatial patterns of covariation in size-at-age of British Columbia and Alaska sockeye salmon stocks and effects of abundance and ocean temperature R. Bruce MacFarlane, Steven Ralston, Chantell Royer and Elizabeth C. Norton [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Influences of the 1997-1998 El Niño and 1999 La Niña on juvenile Chinook salmon in the Gulf of the Farallones Olga S. Temnykh and Sergey L. Marchenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Variability of the pink salmon sizes in relation with abundance of Okhotsk Sea stocks Ludmila A. Chernoivanova, Alexander N. Vdoven and D.V. Antonenko [pdf, 0.3 Mb] The characteristic growth rate of herring in Peter the Great Bay (Japan/East Sea) Nikolay I. Naumenko [pdf, 0.5 Mb] Temporal variations in size-at-age of the western Bering Sea herring Evelyn D. Brown [pdf, 0.45 Mb] Effects of climate on Pacific herring, Clupea pallasii, in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Prince William Sound, Alaska Jake Schweigert, Fritz Funk, Ken Oda and Tom Moore [pdf, 0.6 Mb] Herring size-at-age variation in the North Pacific Ron W. Tanasichuk [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Implications of variation in euphausiid productivity for the growth, production and resilience of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) from the southwest coast of Vancouver Island Chikako Watanabe, Ahihiko Yatsu and Yoshiro Watanabe [pdf, 0.3 Mb] Changes in growth with fluctuation of chub mackerel abundance in the Pacific waters off central Japan from 1970 to 1997 Yoshiro Watanabe, Yoshiaki Hiyama, Chikako Watanabe and Shiro Takayana [pdf, 0.35 Mb] Inter-decadal fluctuations in length-at-age of Hokkaido-Sakhalin herring and Japanese sardine in the Sea of Japan Pavel A. Balykin and Alexander V. Buslov [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Long-term variability in length of walley pollock in the western Bering Sea and east Kamchtka Alexander A. Bonk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Effect of population abundance increase on herring distribution in the western Bering Sea Sergey N. Tarasyuk [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Survival of yellowfin sole (Limanda aspera Pallas) in the northern part of the Tatar Strait (Sea of Japan) during the second half of the 20th century Report of the 2002 MODEL/REX Workshop [pdf, 1.2 Mb] To develop a marine ecosystem model of the North Pacific Ocean including pelagic fishes Summary and Overview [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Workshop presentations: Bernard A. Megrey, Kenny Rose, Francisco E. Werner, Robert A. Klumb and Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] A generalized fish bioenergetics/biomass model with an application to Pacific herring Robert A. Klumb [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review of Clupeid biology with emphasis on energetics Douglas E. Hay [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Reflections of factors affecting size-at-age and strong year classes of herring in the North Pacific Shin-ichi Ito, Yutaka Kurita, Yoshioki Oozeki, Satoshi Suyama, Hiroya Sugisaki and Yongjin Tian [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Review for Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) study under the VENFISH project lexander V. Leonov and Gennady A. Kantakov [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Formalization of interactions between chemical and biological compartments in the mathematical model describing the transformation of nitrogen, phosphorus, silicon and carbon compounds Herring group report and model results [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Saury group report and model results [pdf, 0.46 Mb] Model experiments and hypotheses Recommendations [pdf, 0.4 Mb] Achievements and future steps Acknowledgements [pdf, 0.29 Mb] References [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendix 1. List of Participants [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Appendices 2-5. FORTRAN codes [pdf, 0.4 Mb] (Document pdf contains 182 pages)

2012 Annual report

The CGIAR Research Program on Aquatic Agricultural Systems is a multi-year research initiative launched in July 2011. It is designed to pursue community-based approaches to agricultural research and development that target the poorest and most vulnerable rural households in aquatic agricultural systems. Led by WorldFish, a member of the CGIAR Consortium, the program is partnering with diverse organizations working at local, national and global levels to help achieve impacts at scale.

Solomon Islands: Western Hub scoping report

Aquatic agricultural systems (AAS) are places where farming and fishing in freshwater and/or coastal ecosystems contribute significantly to household income and food security. Globally, the livelihoods of many poor and vulnerable people are dependent on these systems. In recognition of the importance of AAS, the CGIAR Research Program (CRP) is undertaking a new generation of global agricultural research programs on key issues affecting global food security and rural development. The overall goal of the research program is to improve the well-being of people dependent on these systems. Solomon Islands is one of five priority countries in the AAS program, led by WorldFish. In Solomon Islands, the AAS program operates in the Malaita Hub (Malaita Province) and the Western Hub (Western Province). This program and its scoping activities are summarized in this report.

Fish for the future: Fisheries development and food security for Kiribati in an era of global climate change

The Republic of Kiribati is a vast South Pacific island group with one of the largest exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the world. Kiribati waters support a wealth of marine fisheries activities. These activities occur in oceanic, coastal and inshore environments and range from large, foreign, industrial-scale oceanic fishing operations to small-scale, domestic, inshore subsistence fisheries, aquaculture and recreational fisheries. Kiribati has developed a framework of domestic and international governance arrangements that are designed to sustainably manage its wealth of marine resources. The report provides background information for fisheries projects in Kiribati that aim to build food security, improve artisanal livelihoods and strengthen community engagement in fisheries governance. It provides information on the current status of Kiribati fishery resources (oceanic and coastal), their current governance and future challenges. Fish and fisher alike pay little heed to maritime boundaries and bureaucratic distinctions. This report covers both sides of the oceanic/coastal boundary because of the I-Kiribati communities’ interest in oceanic fisheries such as tuna and their heavy dependence on its fisheries resources for food security and economic development. The report focuses on two potential pilot sites for community-based fisheries management projects: North Tarawa and Butaritari.

Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP). Data report: CTD and hydrographic data, R/V Pelican cruise, April 3-11, 1993

The Nutrient Enhanced Coastal Ocean Productivity (NECOP) Program is a component of NOAA's Coastal Ocean Program. The central hypothesis of this research is: Anthropogenic nutrient inputs have enhanced coastal ocean productivity with subsequent impacts on coastal ocean water quality, living resource yields, and the global marine carbon cycle. The initial study area for this program is the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Outflow and adjacent Louisiana shelf region.

Rights first, rights forever: small-scale fisheries and fishing communities from a human-rights perspective. A collection of articles from SAMUDRA report

Small-scale and artisanal fisheries contribute about two-thirds of the global fish production destined for direct human consumption. They also accommodate over 90 per cent of those who make their living from fisheries. Women comprise at least half the workforce in small-scale fisheries. Despite the important contributions made by small-scale fisheries to poverty eradication and food security, small-scale fishers and fishworkers continue to be marginalized at different levels. It is in this context that the Committee on Fisheries (COFI) of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has developed the Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication (SSF Guidelines).

A report on frame and catch assessment surveys on Nabugabo lakes, north west, Lake Victoria Basin, Uganda

The Nabugabo lakes are an important source of affordable protein food in the form of fish, income, water for domestic and commercial purposes (aquaculture farm and Hotels), handcraft materials (mats, hats, roof thatch) and fishing floats and rafts. Nabugabo lakes provide employment, income and export earnings to Uganda that flow from the act of harvesting the fish. In Uganda the fisheries sector directly employs 350,000 people and indirectly 1.2 million people. In 2005, it is estimated that about 370,000 mt fish export (97-98% Nile perch) earned Uganda US $ 143 Million up from US $ 103 million in 2004 .and up from US $ 45 million in 1996. , making it almost become the first non' traditional export commodity. The Nabugabo lakes are also import for cultural values and fish species from these lakes are important in evolutionary studies. The fishery sector is therefore very important in Uganda's socio-economic life. Despite the above values to the communities and global biodiversity roles, the amount of fish caught and the number fishing fleets operating on the Nabugabo lakes to guide management of the lake are lacking. The fishery that exists in these lakes is largely for subsistence and commercial purposes specific for Lake Nabugabo based on introduced species (Nile perch and Nile Tilapia). The fish is caught using mainly gill nets and long line hooks.

Labels or fables? The myth of sustainability: a collection of articles from SAMUDRA Report

Labels or Fables? The Myth of Sustainability examines the costs of certification of global fisheries and how it is allegedly biased towards industrial-scale fisheries. This dossier is a compilation of articles from Samudra Report dealing with the issue of ecolabelling in fisheries.

Fisheries studies on Lake George and Kazinga Channel: first quarter final report June/July 2001

FIRRI surveyed the fisheries of Lake George and Kazinga Channel between 20th June and 20th July 2001. This was the second survey FIRRI has conducted for the ILM project on the water system. The first survey was conducted during November 2000. These data, the analyses and accompanying reports contribute to baseline information for the fishery being collected with the support of ILM that is required for lakewide planning and management. Eight fish landing sites (6 on Lake George) namely; Kahendero, Hamukungu, Kasenyi, Kashaka, Mahyoro, Kayinja (2 on Kazinga Channel) namely; Katunguru -K and B fall within the focus of ILM and were surveyed during November 2000 and June/July 2001 over a three day period at each landing site in 2001 (Mahyoro 2 days). In November 2000, each landing was sampled once. FIRRI conducted a rapid FS and concurrently a CAS. All results are reported by landing site and then summed up (Global) for 8 sites on Lake George and Kazinga Channel.

Report of the training in database and spatial analysis for Marine Protected Areas staff in Indonesia's BOBLME region, Medan, Indonesia, 30 June-4 July, 2015

Training included: Geographic Information System (GIS)concept and software; Global Positioning System (GPS); Ecological Gap Analysis and Marine Protected Area (MPA) design using Marine Reserve Design using Spatially Explicit Annealing (MARXAN); and cartography.