Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Economic analysis of utilizing Kainji gas kiln for fish smoking in the Kainji Lake Basin of Nigeria

Marketing of smoked fish in the Kainji Lake Basin (Nigeria) has been found to be complex, traditional and inefficient. It is also said to be limited in scope due to poor handling and processing techniques, lack of storage facilities and inadequate marketing informations. The invention of Kainji gas kiln has been found suitable to overcoming poor handling and processing techniques. This paper discusses the feasibility of operating Kainji gas kiln commercially supported with adequate storage facilities and competent management hands. The financial indicators of net present value (NPV), 47,481.11, Internal rate of return (IRR) 24% and payback period of 2.3 years that are calculated confirmed that the commercial use of Kainji gas kiln is indeed profitably feasible

A control of gas-vacuolate cyanobacteria

The cyanobacteria that cause problems in water supply are principally the colonial forms that are buoyed up by gas vesicles. The success of these organisms is due, in part, to their gas vesicles, which enable them to perform vertical migrations or to maintain themselves in the euphotic zone. The gas vesicles are also the root cause of the problems. In calm periods they cause the cyanobacteria to float to the water surface forming noxious scums, and they may prevent the colonies from sedimenting in water treatment plants. Gas vesicles are hollow, gas-filled structures; they are rigid but can be collapsed by the application of pressure. Their critical collapse pressure is influenced by their dimensions, which vary in different organisms. Gas vesicles are formed by the assembly of two types of protein, which determine their mechanical and physical properties. Methods for collapsing gas vesicles in natural populations of cyanobacteria will be considered. They may have application to the control of cyanobacteria in water supply.

The brine and gas content of sea ice with attention to low salinities and high temperatures

Based on the well known sea ice phase diagram, equations are derived for determining the brine and gas content of sea Ice for high temperatures (range 0 to -2 °C) and low salinities. The presently widely used equations of Cox and Weeks (1982) are valid only for temperatures below -2°C. Fresh-water ice is used as a boundary condition for the equations. The relative salt concentrations in brine are_assumed to be the same as in normal (or standard) seawater. Two sets of equations are presented: 1) accurate formulae based on UNESCO standard sea water equations, and 2) approximate formulae based on general properties of weak solutions. The approximate formulae are not essentially different from the classical system which basically assumes the freezing point to be a linear function of fractional salt content. The agreement between the two approaches is excellent and the approximate system is good enough for most applications.

Do oil and gas platforms off California reduce recruitment of bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) to natural habitat? An analysis based on trajectories derived from high-frequency radar

To investigate the possibility that oil and gas platforms may reduce recruitment of rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) to natural habitat, we simulated drift pathways termed “trajectories” in our model) from an existing oil platform to nearshore habitat using current measurements from high-frequency (HF) radars. The trajectories originated at Platform Irene, located west of Point Conception, California, during two recruiting seasons for bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis): May through August, 1999 and 2002. Given that pelagic juvenile bocaccio dwell near the surface, the trajectories estimate transport to habitat. We assumed that appropriate shallow water juvenile habitat exists inshore of the 50-m isobath. Results from 1999 indicated that 10% of the trajectories represent transport to habitat, whereas 76% represent transport across the offshore boundary. For 2002, 24% represent transport to habitat, and 69% represent transport across the offshore boundary. Remaining trajectories (14% and 7% for 1999 and 2002, respectively) exited the coverage area either northward or southward along isobaths. Deployments of actual drifters (with 1-m drogues) from a previous multiyear study provided measurements originating near Platform Irene from May through August. All but a few of the drifters moved offshore, as was also shown with the HF radar-derived trajectories. These results indicate that most juvenile bocaccio settling on the platform would otherwise have been transported offshore and perished in the absence of a platform. However, these results do not account for the swimming behavior of juvenile bocaccio, about which little is known.

Travel Characteristics of Marine Anglers Using Oil and Gas Platforms in the Central Gulf of Mexico

This study was designed to evaluate the travel characteristics of avid marine anglers off Louisiana in the Central Gulf of Mexico. It focuses on the complex marine travel patterns involving the extensive assemblage of oil and gas structures. In an intercept approach, marine recreationalf isherman were asked to identify near and offshore travel patterns on the day of the interview. Information was also solicited regarding how respondents selected and located fishing destinations as well as what method of fishing was undertaken that day. Petroleum platforms were a principal fishing destination, and platform anglers traveled an average distance of 75.5 km (40.7 n.mi.) to and from offshore fishing locations. In fishing an average of 6.5 platforms per trip, these anglers traveled about 21.3 km (11.5 n.mi.) between the first and last platform visited. Mean total distances for platform anglers were 96 km (51.8 n.mi). Travel distances for bay, nearshore, and bluewater anglers were also obtained.