Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Changes in frost frequency and desert vegetation assemblages in Grand Canyon, Arizona

The effect of decreasing frost frequency on desert vegetation was documented in Grand Canyon by replication of historical photographs. Although views by numerous photographers of Grand Canyon have been examined, 400 Robert Brewster Stanton and Franklin A. Nims views taken in the winter of 1889-1890 provide the best information on recent plant distribution. In Grand Canyon, where grazing is limited by the rugged topography, vegetation dynamics are controlled by climate and by demographic processes such as seed productivity, recruitment, longevity and mortality. The replicated photographs show distribution and abundance of several species were limited by severe frost before 1889. Two of these, brittlebush (Encelia farinosa) and barrel cactus (Ferocactus cylindraceus), have clearly expanded their ranges up-canyon and have increased their densities at sites where they were present in 1890. In 1890, brittlebush was present in warm microhabitats that provided refugia from frost damage. Views showing desert vegetation in 1923 indicate that Encelia expanded rapidly to near its current distribution between 1890 and 1923, whereas the expansion of Ferocactus occurred more slowly. The higher frequency of frost was probably related to an anomalous increase in winter storms between 1878 (and possibly 1862) and 1891 in the southwestern United States.

An evaluation of length-frequency sampling procedures and subsequent data analysis for purse seine-caught yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: A two-stage sampling design is used to estimate the variances of the numbers of yellowfin in different age groups caught in the eastern Pacific Ocean. For purse seiners, the primary sampling unit (n) is a brine well containing fish from a month-area stratum; the number of fish lengths (m) measured from each well are the secondary units. The fish cannot be selected at random from the wells because of practical limitations. The effects of different sampling methods and other factors on the reliability and precision of statistics derived from the length-frequency data were therefore examined. Modifications are recommended where necessary. Lengths of fish measured during the unloading of six test wells revealed two forms of inherent size stratification: 1) short-term disruptions of existing pattern of sizes, and 2) transition zones between long-term trends in sizes. To some degree, all wells exhibited cyclic changes in mean size and variance during unloading. In half of the wells, it was observed that size selection by the unloaders induced a change in mean size. As a result of stratification, the sequence of sizes removed from all wells was non-random, regardless of whether a well contained fish from a single set or from more than one set. The number of modal sizes in a well was not related to the number of sets. In an additional well composed of fish from several sets, an experiment on vertical mixing indicated that a representative sample of the contents may be restricted to the bottom half of the well. The contents of the test wells were used to generate 25 simulated wells and to compare the results of three sampling methods applied to them. The methods were: (1) random sampling (also used as a standard), (2) protracted sampling, in which the selection process was extended over a large portion of a well, and (3) measuring fish consecutively during removal from the well. Repeated sampling by each method and different combinations indicated that, because the principal source of size variation occurred among primary units, increasing n was the most effective way to reduce the variance estimates of both the age-group sizes and the total number of fish in the landings. Protracted sampling largely circumvented the effects of size stratification, and its performance was essentially comparable to that of random sampling. Sampling by this method is recommended. Consecutive-fish sampling produced more biased estimates with greater variances. Analysis of the 1988 length-frequency samples indicated that, for age groups that appear most frequently in the catch, a minimum sampling frequency of one primary unit in six for each month-area stratum would reduce the coefficients of variation (CV) of their size estimates to approximately 10 percent or less. Additional stratification of samples by set type, rather than month-area alone, further reduced the CV's of scarce age groups, such as the recruits, and potentially improved their accuracy. The CV's of recruitment estimates for completely-fished cohorts during the 198184 period were in the vicinity of 3 to 8 percent. Recruitment estimates and their variances were also relatively insensitive to changes in the individual quarterly catches and variances, respectively, of which they were composed. SPANISH: Se usa un diseño de muestreo de dos etapas para estimar las varianzas de los números de aletas amari11as en distintos grupos de edad capturados en el Océano Pacifico oriental. Para barcos cerqueros, la unidad primaria de muestreo (n) es una bodega de salmuera que contenía peces de un estrato de mes-área; el numero de ta11as de peces (m) medidas de cada bodega es la unidad secundaria. Limitaciones de carácter practico impiden la selección aleatoria de peces de las bodegas. Por 10 tanto, fueron examinados los efectos de distintos métodos de muestreo y otros factores sobre la confiabilidad y precisión de las estadísticas derivadas de los datos de frecuencia de ta11a. Se recomiendan modificaciones donde sean necesarias. Las ta11as de peces medidas durante la descarga de seis bodegas de prueba revelaron dos formas de estratificación inherente por ta11a: 1) perturbaciones a corto plazo en la pauta de ta11as existente, y 2) zonas de transición entre las tendencias a largo plazo en las ta11as. En cierto grado, todas las bodegas mostraron cambios cíclicos en ta11a media y varianza durante la descarga. En la mitad de las bodegas, se observo que selección por ta11a por los descargadores indujo un cambio en la ta11a media. Como resultado de la estratificación, la secuencia de ta11as sacadas de todas las bodegas no fue aleatoria, sin considerar si una bodega contenía peces de un solo lance 0 de mas de uno. El numero de ta11as modales en una bodega no estaba relacionado al numero de lances. En una bodega adicional compuesta de peces de varios lances, un experimento de mezcla vertical indico que una muestra representativa del contenido podría estar limitada a la mitad inferior de la bodega. Se uso el contenido de las bodegas de prueba para generar 25 bodegas simuladas y comparar los resultados de tres métodos de muestreo aplicados a estas. Los métodos fueron: (1) muestreo aleatorio (usado también como norma), (2) muestreo extendido, en el cual el proceso de selección fue extendido sobre una porción grande de una bodega, y (3) medición consecutiva de peces durante la descarga de la bodega. EI muestreo repetido con cada método y distintas combinaciones de n y m indico que, puesto que la fuente principal de variación de ta11a ocurría entre las unidades primarias, aumentar n fue la manera mas eficaz de reducir las estimaciones de la varianza de las ta11as de los grupos de edad y el numero total de peces en los desembarcos. El muestreo extendido evito mayormente los efectos de la estratificación por ta11a, y su desempeño fue esencialmente comparable a aquel del muestreo aleatorio. Se recomienda muestrear con este método. El muestreo de peces consecutivos produjo estimaciones mas sesgadas con mayores varianzas. Un análisis de las muestras de frecuencia de ta11a de 1988 indico que, para los grupos de edad que aparecen con mayor frecuencia en la captura, una frecuencia de muestreo minima de una unidad primaria de cada seis para cada estrato de mes-área reduciría los coeficientes de variación (CV) de las estimaciones de ta11a correspondientes a aproximadamente 10% 0 menos. Una estratificación adicional de las muestras por tipo de lance, y no solamente mes-área, redujo aun mas los CV de los grupos de edad escasos, tales como los reclutas, y mejoró potencialmente su precisión. Los CV de las estimaciones del reclutamiento para las cohortes completamente pescadas durante 1981-1984 fueron alrededor de 3-8%. Las estimaciones del reclutamiento y sus varianzas fueron también relativamente insensibles a cambios en las capturas de trimestres individuales y las varianzas, respectivamente, de las cuales fueron derivadas. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Swimming depth, ambient water temperature preference, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) determined with archival tags

We investigated the migration and behavior of young Pacific Bluefin tuna (Thunnus orientalis) using archival tags. The archival tag measures environmental variables, records them in its memory, and estimates daily geographical locations based on measured light levels. Of 166 archival tags implanted in Pacific bluefin tuna that were released at the northeastern end of the East China Sea from 1995 to 1997, 30 tags were recovered, including one from a fish that migrated across the Pacific. This article describes swimming depth, ambient water temperature, and feeding frequency of young Pacific bluefin tuna based on retrieved data. Tag performance, effect of the tag on the fish, and horizontal movements of the species are described in another paper. Young Pacific bluefin tuna swim mainly in the mixed layer, usually near the sea surface, and swim in deeper water in daytime than at nighttime. They also exhibit a pattern of depth changes, corresponding to sunrise and sunset, apparently to avoid a specific low light level. The archival tags recorded temperature changes in viscera that appear to be caused by feeding, and those changes indicate that young Pacific bluefin tuna commonly feed at dawn and in the daytime, but rarely at dusk or at night. Water temperature restricts their distribution, as indicated by changes in their vertical distribution with the seasonal change in depth of the thermocline and by the fact that their horizontal distribution is in most cases confined to water in the temperature range of 14−20°C.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

Effect of sublethal concentration of artificial seawater on oxygen uptake and opercular frequency in an Indian major carp, Labeo rohita (Ham.)

The present study reports the effect of artificial seawater on oxygen uptake and opercular frequency in an Indian major carp, Labeo rohita. Whereas a control fish of 7.34 g average body weight consumed 1.538 ml O sub(2.) hˉ¹, the 24h and 96h exposed fish of the same body weight consumed 1.07 4 and 0.897 ml O sub(2.) hˉ¹, respectively. The oxygen uptake per unit body weight under controlled condition was 0.219 ml. gˉ¹. hˉ¹, whereas in 24h and 96h exposed fish, it was 0.152 and 0.124 ml. gˉ¹, hˉ¹, respectively. The change in opercular movement in 24h exposed fish was 7.67% higher, whereas in 96h exposed fish, it was 22.43% higher as compared to the control one. All changes are highly significant (p<0.001).