13 resultados para fitting

em Aquatic Commons


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Observations on maturation stages of nineteen species of economically important finfish off the Northeast coast of the USA were analyzed to examine relationships between fish size or age, and maturity. Maturation schedules and median lengths (L50) and ages (A50) at maturation were derived by fitting the logistic model to the observed proportions. Analyses were generally restricted to observations from 1985 to 1990 obtained during stratified random bottom trawl surveys conducted in spring and autumn by the Northeast Fisheries Science Center and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries in waters of the continental shelf from Nova Scotia to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Butterfish, Peprilus triacanthus, attained sexual maturity at the smallest median length (11.4 cm, males) and pollock, Pollachius virens, at the highest (41.8 em, males). Median length at maturity for gadiforms ranged from 22.2 to 41.8 em. Within the pleuronectiforms, median length at maturity ranged from 19.1 to 30.4 cm. Median lengths for the pelagic and miscellaneous demersal species were in the same ranges as the pleuronectiforms. Butterfish also attained sexual maturity at the youngest median age (0.9 yr, both sexes) whereas redfish, Sebastes fasciatus, were the latest to mature (5.5 yr, both sexes). For gadids, the median age at maturity ranged from 1.3 to 2.3 yr. Within the pleuronectiforms, median age at maturity ranged from 1.3 to 4.4 yr and, for pelagic species, from 0.9 to 3.0 yr. Median lengths and ages for many species are lower than those reported in earlier studies of the same general region of the Northwest Atlantic. (PDF file contains 72 pages.)

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We propose an extended form of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF), where the allocation of surplus energy to reproduction is considered. Any function can be used in our model to describe the ratio of energy allocation for reproduction to that for somatic growth. As an example, two models for energy allocation were derived: a step-function and a logistic function. The extended model can jointly describe growth in adult and juvenile stages. The change in growth rate between the two stages can be either gradual or steep; the latter gives a biphasic VBGF. The results of curve fitting indicated that a consideration of reproductive energy is meaningful for model extension. By controlling parameter values, our comprehensive model gives various growth curve shapes ranging from indeterminate to determinate growth. An increase in the number of parameters is unavoidable in practical applications of this new model. Additional information on reproduction will improve the reliability of model estimates.

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The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

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The term “selectivity” refers to the relationship between the size (or age) of a fish and its vulnerability to a given kind of fishing gear. A selectivity schedule, along with other parameters, is normally estimated in the course of fitting a stock assessment model, and the estimated schedule can have a large effect on both the estimate of present stock abundance and the choice of an appropriate harvest rate. The form of the relationship is usually not known and not well determined by the data, and equally good model fits can often be obtained with different plausible specifications of selectivity. Choosing among the model fits and associated abundance estimates in this situation is problematic (Sigler, 1999; Sullivan et al., 19

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Historical length-frequency data of Oman abalone (Haliotis mariae) from two areas (Sadh and Hadbin) of the Dhofar coast of the Sultanate of Oman were used to estimate growth parameters by nonlinear least square fitting. The results were verified using the ELEFAN I program and then combined to calculate total mortality (Z) and recruitment patterns. The growth parameters values with combined sexes were L sub( infinity ) = 137 mm shell length (SL), K = 0.75 year super(1) and 1.57 year super(1) on Sadh male and female, respectively. The female Z value in Hadbin was 1.55 year super(1) in 1989/90. The 1991 Z value for combined sexes were 2.37 year super(1) in Sadh and 1.66 year super(1) in Hadbin, showing much higher fishing pressure in recent years. There were two recruitment pulses, a major one in January and a minor one in May.

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Some problems associated with fitting surplus production models to unsuitable data are discussed. This is illustrated by an application of the Schaefer, Fox and PRODFIT models to Pacific Ocean bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus ) catch and effort data for 1952-1987, which appear to be better described by purely empirical models.

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The age and growth dynamics of the spinner shark (Carcharhinus brevipinna) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean off the southeast United States and in the Gulf of Mexico were examined and four growth models were used to examine variation in the ability to fit size-at-age data. The von Bertalanffy growth model, an alternative equation of the von Bertalanffy growth model with a size-at-birth intercept, the Gompertz growth model, and a logistic model were fitted to sex-specific observed size-at-age data. Considering the statistical criteria (e.g., lowest mean square error [MSE], high coefficient-of-determination, and greatest level of significance) we desired for this study, the logistic model provided the best overall fit to the size-at-age data, whereas the von Bertalanffy growth model gave the worst. For “biological validity,” the von Bertalanffy model for female sharks provided estimates similar to those reported in other studies. However, the von Bertalanffy model was deemed inappropriate for describing the growth of male spinner sharks because estimates of theoretical maximum size (L∞) indicated a size much larger than that observed in the field. However, the growth coefficient (k= 0.14/yr) from the Gompertz model provided an estimate most similar to that reported for other large coastal species. The analysis of growth for spinner shark in the present study demonstrates the importance of fitting alternative models when standard models fit the data poorly or when growth estimates do not appear to be realistic.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The seasonal cycles of coastal wind stress, adjusted sea level height (ASL), shelf currents and water temperatures off the west coast of North America (35°N to 48°N) were estimated by fitting annual and semiannual harmonics to data from 1981-1983. Longer records of monthly ASL indicate that these two harmonics adequately represent the long-term monthly average seasonal cycle, and that the current measurement period is long enough to define the seasonal cycles, with relatively small errors in magnitude and phase.

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Linear regression models are constructed to predict seasonal runoff by fitting streamflow to temperature, precipitation, and snow water content across a range of elevations. The models are quite successful in capturing the differences in discharge between different elevation watersheds and their interannual variations. This exercise thus provides insight into seasonal changes in streamflow at different elevation watersheds that might occur under a changed climate.

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The Common Octopus, Octopus vulgaris, is an r-selected mollusk found off the coast of North Carolina that interests commercial fishermen because of its market value and the cost-effectiveness of unbaited pots that can catch it. This study sought to: 1) determine those gear and environmental factors that influenced catch rates of octopi, and 2) evaluate the feasibility of small-scale commercial operations for this species. Pots were fished from August 2010 through September 2011 set in strings over hard and sandy bottom in waters from 18 to 30 m deep in Onslow Bay, N.C. Three pot types were fished in each string; octopus pots with- and without lids, and conch pots. Proportional catch was modeled as a function of gear design and environmental factors (location, soak time, bottom type, and sea surface water temperature) using binomially distributed generalized linear models (GLM’s); parsimony of each GLM was assessed with Akaike Information Criteria (AIC). A total of 229 octopi were caught throughout the study. Pots with lids, pots without lids, and conch pots caught an average of 0.15, 0.17, and 0.11 octopi, respectively, with high variability in catch rates for each pot type. The GLM that best fit the data described proportional catch as a function of sea surface temperature, soak time, and station; greatest proportional catches occurred over short soak times, warmest temperatures, and less well known reef areas. Due to operating expenses (fuel, crew time, and maintenance), low catch rates of octopi, and high gear loss, a directed fishery for this species is not economically feasible at the catch rates found in this study. The model fitting to determine factors most influential on catch rates should help fishermen determine seasons and gear soak times that are likely to maximize catch rates. Potting for octopi may be commercially practical as a supplemental activity when targeting demersal fish species that are found in similar habitats and depth ranges in coastal waters off North Carolina.

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In May 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) opened two areas in the northwestern Atlantic Ocean that had been previously closed to the U.S. sea scallop (Placopecten magellanicus) dredge fishery. Upon reopening these areas, termed the “Hudson Canyon Controlled Access Area” and the “Virginia Beach Controlled Access Area,” NMFS observers found that marine turtles were being caught incidentally in scallop dredges. This study uses the generalized linear model and the generalized additive model fitting techniques to identify environmental factors and gear characteristics that influence bycatch rates, and to predict total bycatch in these two areas during May-December 2001 and 2002 by incorporating environmental factors into the models. Significant factors affecting sea turtle bycatch were season, time-of-day, sea surface temperature, and depth zone. In estimating total bycatch, rates were stratified according to a combination of all these factors except time-of-day which was not available in fishing logbooks. Highest bycatch rates occurred during the summer season, in temperatures greater than 19°C, and in water depths from 49 to 57 m. Total estimated bycatch of sea turtles during May–December in 2001 and 2002 in both areas combined was 169 animals (CV=55.3), of which 164 (97%) animals were caught in the Hudson Canyon area. From these findings, it may be possible to predict hot spots for sea turtle bycatch in future years in the controlled access areas.

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The relative abundance of Bristol Bay red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) is estimated each year for stock assessment by using catch-per-swept-area data collected on the Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s annual eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey. To estimate survey trawl capture efficiency for red king crab, an experiment was conducted with an auxiliary net (fitted with its own heavy chain-link footrope) that was attached beneath the trawl to capture crabs escaping under the survey trawl footrope. Capture probability was then estimated by fitting a model to the proportion of crabs captured and crab size data. For males, mean capture probability was 72% at 95 mm (carapace length), the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model; 84.1% at 135 mm, the legal size for the fishery; and 93% at 184 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. For females, mean capture probability was 70% at 90 mm, the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model, and 77% at 162 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. The precision of our estimates for each sex decreased for juveniles under 60 mm and for the largest crab because of small sample sizes. In situ data collected from trawl-mounted video cameras were used to determine the importance of various factors associated with the capture of individual crabs. Capture probability was significantly higher when a crab was standing when struck by the footrope, rather than crouching, and higher when a crab was hit along its body axis, rather than from the side. Capture probability also increased as a function of increasing crab size but decreased with increasing footrope distance from the bottom and when artificial light was provided for the video camera.

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The study based on time series marine fish production data during the period of 1983-1984 to 2007-2008 in Bangladesh. For this growth analysis six deterministic time series models are considered. The estimated best fitting models are the cubic, quadratic and quadratic model is appropriate for industrial marine fish production, artisanal marine fish production and total marine fish production in Bangladesh respectively. The study attempts to provide forecasts of marine fish production in Bangladesh for the year of 2008-09 to 2012-13. The magnitude of instability in marine fish production was attempted by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three years moving average values. The study revealed that the total marine fish production was observed to be relatively stable (CV being 31.85%) compared to the artisanal marine fish production (CV being 32.04%) and industrial marine fish (CV being 47.20%). For the three components of marine fish production the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rates in industrial marine fish production was -21.6% to 13.12%, in artisanal marine fish production was 2.39% to 5.29% and in total marine fish production was 11.23% to 24.85% during the study period.