Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

Panama City Fisheries Resources Office: FY 2006 Annual Report

HIGHLIGHTS FOR FY 2006 1. Captured and tagged 475 Gulf sturgeons in five Florida rivers and one bay. 2. Documented Gulf sturgeon marine movement and habitat use in the Gulf of Mexico. 3. Assisted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with the collection of Gulf sturgeon, implantation of acoustic tags, and monitoring of fish in a study to examine movement patterns and habitat use in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee bays post-Hurricane Ivan. 4. Provided technical assistance to Jon “Bo” Sawyer in completing a study – Summer Resting Areas of the Gulf Sturgeon in the Conecuh/Escambia River System, Alabama-Florida – for acquiring a Degree of Master of Science at Troy University, Alabama. 5. Coordinated tagging and data collection with NOAA observers aboard trawlers while collecting Gulf sturgeon during dredging operations in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. 6. Hosted the 7th Annual Gulf Sturgeon Workshop. 7. Implemented Gulf Striped Bass Restoration Plan by coordinating the 23rd Annual Morone Workshop, leading the technical committee, transporting broodfish, coordinating the stocking on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river system, and evaluating post-stocking success. 8. Continued updating and managing the Freshwater Mussel Survey Database, a Geographic Information System (GIS) database, for over 800 unique sites in the Northeast Gulf (NEG) drainages in Alabama (AL), Georgia (GA), and Florida (FL). 9. Formed a recovery implementation team for listed mussels in the ACF river basin and oversaw grant cooperative agreements for 14 listed and candidate freshwater mussels in the NEG watersheds. 10. Initiated a project in the Apalachicola River to relocate mussels stranded as a result of drought conditions, and calculate river flows at which mussels would be exposed. 11. Initiated a project in Sawhatchee Creek, Georgia to determine the status of threatened and endangered (T&E) freshwater mussels and target restoration projects, population assessments, and potential population augmentation to lead toward recovery of the listed species. 12. Initiated a study to determine the age and growth of the endangered fat threeridge mussel (Amblema neislerii). 13. Provided technical assistance to the Panama City Ecological Services office for a biological opinion on the operations of Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam and its effects on the listed species and designated and proposed critical habitat in the Apalachicola River, Florida. 14. Assisted with a multi-State, inter-agency team to develop a management plan to restore the Alabama shad in the ACF river system. 15. Conducted fishery surveys on Tyndall AFB, Florida and Ft. Benning, Georgia and completed a report with recommendations for future recreational fishery needs. 16. Provided fishery technical assistance to four National Wildlife Refuges (NWR) (i.e., Okefenokee NWR, Banks Lake NWR, St. Vincent NWR, and St. Marks NWR). 17. Initiated an Aquatic Resources and Recreation Fishing Survey on Department of Defense facilities located in Region 4. 18. Identified 130 road-stream crossings on Eglin AFB for rehabilitation and elimination of sediment imputs. 19. Continued the Aquatics Monitoring Program at Eglin AFB to assess techniques that determine current status and sustainability of aquatic habitat and develop a measure to determine quality or degradation of habitat. 20. Assisted Eglin AFB Natural Resource managers in revising the installation’s Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) and its associated component plans. 21. Coordinated recovery efforts for the endangered Okaloosa darter including population/life history surveys, stream restoration, and outreach activities. 22. Initiated a comprehensive status review of the Okaloosa darter with analyses performed to assess available habitat, preferred habitats, range expansions/reductions/fragmentations, population size, and probability of extinction. 23. Assisted the Gulf Coastal Plain Ecosystem Partnership and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) under a Memorandum of Agreement to develop conservation strategies, implement monitoring and assessment programs, and secure funds for aquatic management programs in six watersheds in northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. 24. Entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Air Force to encourage the conservation and rehabilitation of natural resources at Hurlburt Field, Florida. 25. Multiple outreach projects were completed to detail aquatic resources’ conservation needs and opportunities; including National Fishing Week, Earth Day, several festivals, and school outreach.

Capture probability of a survey trawl for red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus)

The relative abundance of Bristol Bay red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) is estimated each year for stock assessment by using catch-per-swept-area data collected on the Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s annual eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey. To estimate survey trawl capture efficiency for red king crab, an experiment was conducted with an auxiliary net (fitted with its own heavy chain-link footrope) that was attached beneath the trawl to capture crabs escaping under the survey trawl footrope. Capture probability was then estimated by fitting a model to the proportion of crabs captured and crab size data. For males, mean capture probability was 72% at 95 mm (carapace length), the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model; 84.1% at 135 mm, the legal size for the fishery; and 93% at 184 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. For females, mean capture probability was 70% at 90 mm, the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model, and 77% at 162 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. The precision of our estimates for each sex decreased for juveniles under 60 mm and for the largest crab because of small sample sizes. In situ data collected from trawl-mounted video cameras were used to determine the importance of various factors associated with the capture of individual crabs. Capture probability was significantly higher when a crab was standing when struck by the footrope, rather than crouching, and higher when a crab was hit along its body axis, rather than from the side. Capture probability also increased as a function of increasing crab size but decreased with increasing footrope distance from the bottom and when artificial light was provided for the video camera.

Daily rainfall along the United States Pacific Coast appears to conform to a square-root normal probability distribution

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): As part of a study of climatic influences on landslide initiation, a statistical analysis of long-term (>40 years) records of daily rainfall from 24 Pacific coastal stations, from San Diego to Cape Flattery, disclosed an unexpected result - the square root of the daily rainfall closely approximates a normal distribution function. ... This paper illustrates the use of the square-root-normal distribution to analyze variations in precipitation along the mainland United States Pacific Coast with examples of orographic enhancement, rain shadows, and increase in precipitation frequency with geographic latitude.