The predicting power of models for eutrophication

Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

Molecular studies on the effect of germanium oxide on sponges, corals and ascidians

The stress response, at the molecular level, of the soft corals Dendronephthya klunzingeri and Heteroxenia sp., hard corals Acropora hyacinthus and A. valenciennesi, an ascidian Symplegma sp. and sponges Latruncula cortica and Callyspongia crassa to germanium oxide (GeO sub(2)) was evaluated. Evaluation was carried out using bioindicators. such as the level of expression of each of the heat shock proteins (HSPs) and the silicatein enzyme in response to the compound. However, the expression was measured by SDS Polyacrylamide Gel Electrophoresis (SDS PAGE) and western blotting. The harmful concentration of GeO sub(2) that produced noticeable molecular changes in the studied samples during the first 6-24 hours was 6 μg/ml. The two studied soft corals as well as the ascidian responded to the harmful concentration of germanium oxide by expressing the heat-shock protein 90 (hsp90), while the two hard corals responded by expressing hsp70, C. crassa by decreasing the level of silicatein enzyme and sponge L. cortica produced no change by any of the used biomarkers, The soft coral Heteroxenia sp. was found to be sensitive to mechanical stress during the experiment and it was more sensitive to 6 μg/ml of GeO sub(2) than the other soft coral D. klunzingeri. The two studied hard corals were sensitive to mechanical stress during the experiment, but A. hyacinth us showed higher sensitivity than A. valenciennesi. However, these 2 corals displayed reverse response to GeO sub(2). Primitive evidences were found in the SDS PAGE to distinguish the tissue of the soft coral from that of the hard coral on the molecular level; the soft coral showed two prominent protein bands (45 and 50 kDa) while the two prominent protein bands for hard corals were 31 and 116 kDa.