Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Einfluss des Tag-Nacht-Verhaltens von Fischen auf das Ergebnis hydroakustischer Messungen

Echo integration is an established method for stock estimation. However, this method is not free of errors like every other measuring method. Especially the variation between day and night behaviour of fish may lead to large measuring errors. A new method is represented detecting such systematic errors, exemplified by investigations during the international hydroacoustic survey on the spring spawning herring in the Norwegian Sea. For this method all measured sA-values are sorted by starting time of the measuring unit distance. In order to reduce random influences a moving average over five time intervals is computed. When displaying these values in a diagram makes it is very easy to detect systematic errors based on the differences in day-night behaviour. For both species, herring and blue whiting, stock estimations are calculated based on the measured sA-values and the results of the analysed trawl catches. The influence of the differnt day and night behaviour of herring on the results of its biomass estimation is rather low. For blue whiting the measured values were about three time higher during day time than during night time. The result of this investigation should initiate a change of the evaluation procedure for stock estimation based on hydroacoustic measurements.

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Climatic factors associated with phytoplankton community succession during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary [abstract]

Principal coordinates analysis and multiple regression analysis were used to determine the environmental factors associated with the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought for the San Francisco Bay-Delta Estuary. Physical, chemical and biological data were collected semimonthly or monthly during the spring-summer between 1973 and 1982 from 15 sampling sites located throughout the Bay-Delta. A decline in phytoplankton community diversity and density during the 1977 drought and subsequent years (1978 through 1981) was described using principal coordinates analysis. The best multiple regression which described the changes in phytoplankton community succession contained the variables water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration. Together these variables accounted for 61 percent of the variation in the phytoplankton community among years described by principal coordinates analysis. An increase in water temperature, wind velocity and ortho-phosphate concentration within the Bay-Delta, beginning in June 1976 and continuing through 1981, was demonstrated using weighted moving averages. From the strong association between phytoplankton community succession and climatic variables it was hypothesized that the decline in phytoplankton production during and after the 1977 drought was associated with climatic changes within the northeast Pacific.

Trend and growth analysis of marine fish production in Bangladesh

The study based on time series marine fish production data during the period of 1983-1984 to 2007-2008 in Bangladesh. For this growth analysis six deterministic time series models are considered. The estimated best fitting models are the cubic, quadratic and quadratic model is appropriate for industrial marine fish production, artisanal marine fish production and total marine fish production in Bangladesh respectively. The study attempts to provide forecasts of marine fish production in Bangladesh for the year of 2008-09 to 2012-13. The magnitude of instability in marine fish production was attempted by computing the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage deviation from three years moving average values. The study revealed that the total marine fish production was observed to be relatively stable (CV being 31.85%) compared to the artisanal marine fish production (CV being 32.04%) and industrial marine fish (CV being 47.20%). For the three components of marine fish production the growth rates were different over different time points. The variation of the growth rates in industrial marine fish production was -21.6% to 13.12%, in artisanal marine fish production was 2.39% to 5.29% and in total marine fish production was 11.23% to 24.85% during the study period.

Some aspects of the temperature, oxygen and nutrient distributions in Monterey Bay, California. Annual Report, Part 1, 1973

Seasonal variations in temperature, dissolved oxygen, and nutrients in the nearshore areas and in the canyon area of Monterey Bay, California during 1971-1972 were similar~ During upwelling periods, however, water in the nearshore areas was higher in temperature and oxygen and lower in nutrients than water in the canyon area~ This was caused by upwelled water moving north and south of the canyon into counterclockwise and clockwise flow in the northern and southern ends of the bay respectively. The water was heated by insolation and depleted of its nutrients by photosynthesis during this movement. The residence time of water in the nearshore northern and southern bay during upwelling is estimated to be 3 to 8 days, and this fits well into the above circulation pattern and average measured current velocities of 10 to 15 cm/sec~ There is sorne evidence that this circulation pattern and the estimated residence time may be also valid for on-upwelling periods. Upwelling apparently occurred in Monterey Submarine Canyon at rates of 0.4 to 2.9 m/day and was stronger in 1971 than 1972. (PDF contains 107 pages)

Temperature conditions in the cold pool 1977-81: A comparison between Southern New England and New York transects

Expendable bathythermograph data collected by the Ships of Opportunity (SOOP) - Ocean Monitoring Program are analyzed for seasonal and inter-annual variations of the cold pool. Two major SOOP transects within the Middle Atlantic Bight (Southern New England and New York) have been analyzed for the years common to both (1977-81). During the years 1977-81, over 200 transects were occupied, and almost 3,000 XBT's were dropped. Results show that the cold pool is formed with the onset of spring warming and persists until fall overturn, is consistent year to year in both area and weighted average annual temperature, and advects water from the northeast to the southwest. Results also show a 100-d lag in minimum temperature between the Southern New England and New York transects. DitTerences in bathymetry between the two transects and their influence on the cold pool are also discussed. Plots of average (1977-81) bottom temperature for both transects are discussed and show consistent annual weighted mean temperature and areas. Bottom temperature plots for individual years, as well as maximum and minimum bottom temperature plots, are presented as Appendix figures. (PDF file contains 28 pages.)

Der Haftwasseranteil bei Heringsanlandungen über Bandwaagen

In 2004 the fish processing company Euro-Baltic Fischverarbeitungs GmbH Mukran, went into operation on the Isle of Rügen at the Baltic coast of Germany. About 20 % of the herring landed there is discharged from the cutters into the processing plant by pipes, driven by pumps, in case that the landed volume exceeds 10 t fresh weight. In such case the herring is transported in water suspension by means of a pressure-vacuum suction pump system into containers and further transported via conveyer belt to a flowscale. During this process most of the water runs off. It is however unknown how much water remains with the fish and is eventually weighted as fish. To estimate this proportion the mixture of water and fish was stored in special transport containers, which allow the measurement of the run-off. As a result the study shows that on average 2 % of weight measured by the tape scale is water. Along with this factors were determined which influence the variability of the proportion of water.

Growth, mortality and yield-per-recruit of the poor cod, Trisopterus minutus capelanus, from the Strait of Sicily

Length-based methods (LBMs) were used to study the growth of Trisopterus minutus capelanus in the Strait of Sicily (Messina Strait). A total of 16,304 'merluzzetto' or poor cod collected by experimental trawling off the southern coast of Sicily during spring, summer, autumn 1986 and winter 1987 were measured in order to estimate the length structure of the population. Length-frequency distribution were analyzed and normal components were discriminated. Von Bertalanffy growth parameters were derived from the mean length of the normal components. The growth parameters obtained by weighted non-linear regression were: K=0.462 (yr super(1)), L sub( infinity )=222.3 (TL,mm) and t sub(o)=-0.679 yr. The resulting growth performance index ( Phi ') was 4.36, a value slightly lower than those derived for Western Mediterranean (mean Phi '=4.45) and Adriatic ( Phi '=4.58) populations and slightly higher than that derived for Hellenic waters ( Phi '=4.27). On the basis of the von Bertalanffy parameters estimated, an array of age-specific instantaneous natural mortality rate (M sub(t)=0.5-1.1) and an average value of total natural mortality rate (Z=2.1 yr super(1)) were estimated and used in the Thompson and Bell yield per recruit (Y/R) analysis in order to evaluate the status of the fishery and forecast the effects of changes in the fishing pattern. Results indicate that this resource is overexploited and that Y/R could be increased by postponing the age at first capture from 0.5 to 1.0 yr. Even a slight reduction in fishing mortality could improve the performance of the fishery. At the present level of exploitation, and assuming a constant recruitment, the spawning stock biomass per recruit (SPR) is well below the conservative threshold of 30% of the pristine or unexploited SPR.

Comparison of average larval fish vertical distributions among species exhibiting different transport pathways on the southeast United States continental shelf

Water currents are vertically structured in many marine systems and as a result, vertical movements by fish larvae and zooplankton affect horizontal transport (Power, 1984). In estuaries, the vertical movements of larvae with tidal periods can result in their retention or ingress (Fortier and Leggett, 1983; Rijnsdorp et al., 1985; Cronin and Forward, 1986; Forward et al., 1999). On the continental shelf, the vertical movements of organisms interact daily and ontogenetically with depth-varying currents to affect horizontal transport (Pillar et al., 1989; Barange and Pillar, 1992; Cowen et al., 1993, 2000; Batchelder et al., 2002).

Waste minimisation in fishing operations

Sources of wastes in fishing operations mainly include bycatch discards; processing wastes where catch is processed onboard; plastic wastes due to abandoned, lost and discarded fishing gear; bilges and other wastes from the vessel operations. Fishing systems in general have an associated catch of nontargeted organisms known as bycatch. Non-selective fishing gear that is not modified or equipped to exclude non-targeted organisms, may take a significant quantity of bycatch of non-targeted finfish, juvenile fish, benthic animals, marine mammals, marine birds and vulnerable or endangered species that are often discarded. Average annual global discards, has been estimated to be 7.3 million t, based on a weighted discard rate of 8%, during 1992-2001 period. Trawl fisheries for shrimp and demersal finfish account for over 50% of the total estimated global discards. Plastic materials are extensively used in fisheries, owing to their durability and other desirable properties, contributing to the efficiency and catchability of the fishing gear. However, plastics biodegrade at an extremely slow rate compared to other organic materials. Abandoned, lost or otherwise discarded fishing gear (ALDFG) and related marine debris have been recognized as a critical problem in the marine environment and for living marine resources. Prevention of excess fishing capacity by appropriate management measures could lead to enormous savings in terms of fuel consumption, emissions and bycatch discards from the excess fishing fleet, capital and operational investments and labour deployment in capture fisheries, with significant economic gains. In this paper, wastes originating from fishing operations are reviewed, along with their environmental impacts and possible mitigation measures

Prioritizing county-level well-being: Moving toward assessment of Gulf Coast counties impacted by the Deepwater Horizon Industrial Disaster

To develop a portfolio of indicators and measures that could best measure changes in the social, economic, environmental and health dimensions of well-being in coastal counties we convened a group of experts March 8-9, 2011 in Charleston, SC, U.S.A. The region of interest was of the northern Gulf of Mexico, specifically, those coastal counties most impacted during the explosion and subsequent oil spill from the Macondo Prospect wellhead during the summer of 2010. Over the course of the two-day workshop participants moved through presentations and facilitated sessions to identify and prioritize potential indicators and measures deemed most valuable for capturing changes in well-being related to changes in or disruption of ecosystem services. The experts reached consensus on a list of indicators that are now being operationalized by NOAA researchers. The ultimate goal of this research project is to determine whether a meaningful set of social and economic indicators can be developed to document changes in well-being that occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services. The outcomes and outputs from the workshop that is the subject of this report helped us to identify high-quality indicators useful for measuring well-being.

Fish movement patterns in Virgin Islands National Park, Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument and adjacent waters

NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS)-Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s (CCMA) Biogeography Branch, National Park Service (NPS), US Geological Survey, and the University of Hawaii used acoustic telemetry to quantify spatial patterns and habitat affinities of reef fishes around the island of St. John, US Virgin Islands. The objective of the study was to define the movements of reef fishes among habitats within and between the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICRNM), the Virgin Islands National Park (VIIS), and Territorial waters surrounding St. John. In order to better understand species’ habitat utilization patterns among management regimes, we deployed an array of hydroacoustic receivers and acoustically tagged reef fishes. Thirty six receivers were deployed in shallow near-shore bays and across the shelf to depths of approximately 30 m. One hundred eighty four individual fishes were tagged representing 19 species from 10 different families with VEMCO V9-2L-R64K transmitters. The array provides fish movement information at fine (e.g., day-night and 100s meters within a bay) to broad spatial and temporal scales (multiple years and 1000s meters across the shelf). The long term multi-year tracking project provides direct evidence of connectivity across habitat types in the seascape and among management units. An important finding for management was that a number of individuals moved among management units (VICRNM, VINP, Territorial waters) and several snapper moved from near-shore protected areas to offshore shelf-edge spawning aggregations. However, most individuals spent the majority of their time with VIIS and VICRNM, with only a few wide-ranging species moving outside the management units. Five species of snappers (Lutjanidae) accounted for 31% of all individuals tagged, followed by three species of grunts (Haemulidae) accounting for an additional 23% of the total. No other family had more than a single species represented in the study. Bluestripe grunt (Haemulon sciurus) comprised 22% of all individuals tagged, followed by lane snappers (Lutjanus synagris) at 21%, bar jack (Carangoides ruber) at 11%, and saucereye porgy (Calamus calamus) at 10%. The largest individual tagged was a 70 cm TL nurse shark (Ginglymostoma cirratum), followed by a 65 cm mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis), a 47 cm bar jack, and a 41 cm dog snapper (Lutjanus jocu). The smallest individuals tagged were a 19 cm blue tang (Acanthurus coeruleus) and a 19.2 cm doctorfish (Acanthurus chirurgus). Of the 40 bluestriped grunt acoustically tagged, 73% were detected on the receiver array. The average days at large (DAL) was 249 (just over 8 months), with one individual detected for 930 days (over two and a half years). Lane snapper were the next most abundant species tagged (N = 38) with 89% detected on the array. The average days at large (DAL) was 221 with one individual detected for 351 days. Seventy-one percent of the bar jacks (N = 21) were detected on the array with the average DALs at 47 days. All of the mutton snapper (N = 12) were detected on the array with an average DAL of 273 and the longest at 784. The average maximum distance travelled (MDT) was ca. 2 km with large variations among species. Grunts, snappers, jacks, and porgies showed the greatest movements. Among all individuals across species, there was a positive and significant correlation between size of individuals and MDT and between DAL and MDT.