Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Mortality estimates of the four major Cichlid fishes of Umuoseriche Lake, Imo State, Nigeria

The mortality of the four major cichlid fishes of Urnuoseriche Lake is the subject of this paper. Mortality I as estimated by five techniques, vary amongst the cichlid fishes, viz, Tilapia carbrae, Tilapia mariac, Tilapia zilli cend (hrornoditilapfa guntheri. The highest mortality rate was recorded for T mariac where the total mortality (Z) was 2.06; and natural mortality (M) was 1.8949. This species was also the most highly exploited species of fish with an exploitation ratio of0.566 (56.6%) and exploitation rate of 0.494. The least exploited cichlid fish is (. gun/hen where an exploitation ratio of 0.43209%) and exploitation rate of 0.2225 was recorded. In C'. guntheni, total mortality was 0.726 and natural mortality was 0.413 1. In T zilli, total mortality was 1.0547 wile exploitation ratio was 0.3674 (3 6.74%) and an exploitation rate was 0.2394. In T cahrae. total mortality was 1.8662: exploitation ratio was 0.4786 with an exploitation rate of 0.4045. (7 page document)

Ongoing monitoring of Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Assessing the consequences of reserve designation

Over the past five years, a biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve(TER) has been carried out to measure the post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial microalgal biomass at depths between 10 and 30 m in the soft sediments at the coral reef interface, and that this community may play an important role in the food web supporting reef organisms. In addition, preliminary stable isotope data, in conjunction with prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be an important source of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER. The majority of the fish analyzed so far have exhibited a C isotope signature consistent with a food web which relies heavily on benthic primary production. Fish counts indicate a marked increase in the abundance of large fish (>20 cm) within the Reserve relative to the Out and Park strata, across years. Faunal collections from open and protected soft bottom habitat near the northern boundary of Tortugas North strongly suggest that relaxation of trawling pressure has increased benthic biomass and diversity in this area of TER. These data, employing an integrated Before - After Control Impact (BACI) design at multiple spatial scales, will allow us to continue to document and quantify the post-implementation effects of TER. (PDF contains 58 pages)

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

A review of marine zones in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary

This report reviews marine zoning in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS). The 72 zoned areas in the MBNMS are of 13 different zone types. Each marine zone type has associated regulations that restrict or promote specific activities. For example, recreational activities such as boating, fishing, tidepooling, snorkeling, and SCUBA diving are limited in some zones. Scientific research is allowed at all sites, with appropriate permits, and is specifically promoted in a few sites. In addition, motorized personal watercraft use, dredge material disposal, large vessel traffic, jade collection, and aircraft overflight are allowed only in specific zones. The effectiveness of the marine zoning in the MBNMS is difficult to determine for two reasons. Firstly, many of the zones lack a clearly stated purpose or have confusing regulations. Secondly, the majority of the zones have not been evaluated formally by the managing agencies. Of the zones that have been evaluated, such as Dredge Material Disposal zones, Big Creek MRPA Ecological Reserve, and Pt. Lobos State/Ecological Reserve, the majority appear to be achieving their mandated purpose to some extent. Many of the zones in the MBNMS fall under the title "marine reserve." Marine reserves have recently received significant attention internationally, nationally, and in California due to their potential for: improving the status of exploited species; protecting marine habitats and ecosystems from degradation; facilitating scientific research and fisheries management; and increasing ecotourism. However, reserves must be well designed and managed to reach this potential. A well designed and managed reserve will have clearly defined goals, scientifically-based design, proper enforcement of regulations, rigorous evaluation of the reserve's effectiveness, and adaptive management. Based on these criteria, the majority of the marine reserves in California are not well designed or managed. However, the State of California has recognized this problem and is in the process of re-evaluating the California system of marine managed areas. (PDF contains 137 pages.)

Life-stage recruitment models for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) on Georges Bank

Ichthyoplankton surveys have been used to provide an independent estimate of adult spawning biomass of commercially exploited species and to further our understanding of the recruitment processes in the early life stages. However, predicting recruitment has been difficult because of the complex interaction of physical and biological processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales that can occur at the different life stages. A model of first-year life-stage recruitment was applied to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks over the years 1977–2004 by using environmental and densitydependent relationships. The best lifestage mortality relationships for eggs, larvae, pelagic juveniles, and demersal juveniles were first determined by hindcasting recruitment estimates based on egg and larval abundance and mortality rates derived from two intensive sampling periods, 1977–87 and 1995–99. A wind-driven egg mortality relationship was used to estimate losses due to transport off the bank, and a wind-stress larval mortality relationship was derived from feeding and survival studies. A simple metric for the density-dependent effects of Atlantic cod was used for both Atlantic cod and haddock. These life stage proxies were then applied to the virtual population analysis (VPA) derived annual egg abundances to predict age-1 recruitment. Best models were determined from the correlation of predicted and VPA-derived age-1 abundance. The larval stage was the most quantifiable of any stage from surveys, whereas abundance estimates of the demersal juvenile stage were not available because of undersampling. Attempts to forecast recruitment from spawning stock biomass or egg abundance, however, will always be poor because of variable egg survival.

Comparison of life history parameters for landed and discarded fish captured off the southeastern United States

Commercial fisheries that are managed with minimum size limits protect small fish of all ages and may affect size-selective mortality by the differential removal of fast growing fish. This differential removal may decrease the average size at age, maturation, or sexual transition of the exploited population. When fishery-independent data are not available, a comparison of life history parameters of landed with those of discarded fish (by regulation) will indicate if differential mortality is occurring with the capture of young but large fish (fast growing phenotypes). Indications of this differential size-selective mortality would include the following: the discarded portion of the target fish would have similar age ranges but smaller sizes at age, maturation, and sexual transition as that of landed fish. We examined three species with minimum size limits but different exploitation histories. The known heavily exploited species (Rhomboplites aurorubens [vermilion snapper] and Pagrus pagrus [red porgy]) show signs of this differential mortality. Their landed catch includes many young, large fish, whereas discarded fish had a similar age range and mean ages but smaller sizes at age than the landed fish. The unknown exploited species, Mycteroperca phenax (scamp), showed no signs of differential mortality due to size-selective fishing. Landed catch consisted of old, large fish and discarded scamp had little overlap in age ranges, had significantly different mean ages, and only small differences in size at age when compared to comparable data for landed fish.

Shore seines for reservoirs - Part 1 - Design and performance

Based on the studies to introduce active gears in reservoirs, a prototype shore seine was designed and tested, the details of which are presented in this communication. The results revealed that the operation of this gear could effectively control the proliferation of under-exploited species.

Description of Early Larvae of Four Northern California Species of Rockfishes (Scorpaenidae: Sebastes) from Rearing Studies

About 72 species of Sebastes (Family Scorpaenidae) are found along the eastern Pacific coast of North America, some of which are heavily exploited by both commercial and sport fisheries. Because of the large number of species, the identification of early life stages has progressed slowly. The objectives of this study were 1) to rear the larvae of four species of rockfish (Sebastes mystinus, S. carnatus, S. atrovirens, and S. rastrelliger); and 2) to describe the larvae using morphometric measurements, pigmentation patterns, and head spination. Pigmentation was the most useful feature for identification purposes. Two general patterns were found: 1) a short row of ventral midline melanophores on the tail, and none or very little postero-dorsal pigmentation (S. mystinus); and 2) complete ventral midline pigmentation on the tail, and anterior and postero-dorsal melanophores (S. carnatus, S. atrovirens, and S. rastrelliger). With the exception of very early stages of S. carnatus and S. atrovirens, these species can be readily identified. Morphometric proportions and head spination did not show major differences among species. Because of the great similarities found among species in this genus, descriptions from field studies are uncertain to some extent. Laboratory rearings, although difficult, can at least provide early larvae from known species which allow precise identification as well as an estimation ofvariability of characters (e.g., pigmentation) within and between broods.(PDF file contains 22 pages.)

A review of the commercially exploited marine fishery resources of Nigeria

The annual estimated total marine fish catch in Nigeria for the period 1971 to 1979 is 0.3299 million metric tons. The differential distribution pattern of the predominant fish groups for the maritime states, the component species, their life habits in relation to hydrographic factors leasing to seasonal fluctuations in the fisheries are highlighted, focussing also on the types of fishing carafts and gear in common use along the coastal states and the fish species obtained from them. The landings by the exploratory and commercial fishing trawlers including the distant water vessels (imports) form about 4.24% of the total marine fish landing

Demographic characteristics of exploited tropical lutjanids: a comparative analysis

Demographic parameters from seven exploited coral reef lutjanid species were compared as a case study of the implications of intrafamily variation in life histories for multispecies harvest management. Modal lengths varied by 4 cm among four species (Lutjanus fulviflamma, L. vitta, L. carponotatus, L. adetii), which were at least 6 cm smaller than the modal lengths of the largest species (L. gibbus, Symphorus nematophorus, Aprion virescens). Modal ages, indicating ages of full selection to fishing gear, were 10 years or less for all species, but maximum ages ranged from 12 (L. gibbus) to 36 years (S. nematophorus). Each species had a unique growth pattern, with differences in length-at-age and mean asymptotic fork length (L∞), but smaller species generally grew fast during the first 1–2 years of life and larger species grew more slowly over a longer period. Total mortality rates varied among species; L. gibbus had the highest mortality and L. fulviflamma, the lowest mortality. The variability in life history strategies of these tropical lutjanids makes generalizations about lutjanid life histories difficult, but the fact that all seven had characteristics that would make them particularly vulnerable to fishing indicates that harvest of tropical lutjanids should be managed with caution.

A revision of growth parameters of some commercially exploited fishes from Mozambique

Data on age and growth of the following species were reviewed and von Bertalanffy's growth curves were fitted: Hilsa kelee, Decapterus russellii, D. macrosoma, Rastrelliger kanagurta, Pellona ditchela, Thryssa vitrirostris and Leiognathus equulus. For the five first species, microstructures in the otoliths were used for ageing. For most species growth curves based on size-frequency distributions are also presented. The reliability of the data presented is discussed.

Distribution, biology and behaviour of the giant trevally, Caranx ignobilis- a candidate species for mariculture

Fishery and biology of the giant trevally, Caranx ignobilis exploited along the Tuticorin coast of Tamilnadu were monitored during 2001-2006. Fishery occurred round the year with peak landings during April-August. Spawning and recruitment occur almost round the year with peak during November-December. Young ones are abundant in shallow coastal waters and as grows, they move to deeper waters. Growth parameters, L"' and K are estimated respectively as 143.6 cm and 0.69/year and 'to' as -0.0242 year. Estimates show that they grow fast and attain 73, 108, 126 and 134 cm in total length by first, second, third and fourth year respectively. Their weight increment is also fast and attains 5.5 kg, 16.8 kg, 25.9 kg and 33.7 kg respectively during the period. Stock assessment indicated that the stock at present is over exploited and under heavy fishing pressure. Rearing trial in aquarium tank showed that they are compatible to confined rearing conditions. Based on the distribution and biology of the species, their mariculture potential is discussed.

Standing stock of three species of demersal fishes from southwest coast of India

Standing stock of three principal demersal fishes of the inshore waters off Mangalore was assessed. The assessment was based on fortnightly samplings conducted in an area extending over ca 850 km². The data gathered was computed employing Alverson's methods. The standing stock of Nemipterus japonicus, Saurida tumbil and Grammoplites scaber indicates that this area supports good quantities of these fishes and if properly exploited, will sustain a profitable demersal fishery.

Biology of the penaeid shrimp populations exploited by Estuarine Set Bagnet

Results of analysis of part of the data collected during October, 1989 to December, 1990 are given on the biology and catch assessment studies on the Estuarine Set Bagnet (ESBN) from six sampling stations covering the entire coast line of Bangladesh. Length frequency analysis of seven most commonly occurring penaeid shrimp species have been done with complete ELEFAN software package. The result of exploitation patterns indicate that all penaeids except P. stylifera are being over exploited on their way back to the Sea from the nursery ground. This appeared to be the instances of serious growth over fishing. These species are exploited at a size much lower than the length at first maturity, which strongly suggests a complete withdrawal of the bagnet fishery from the coast of Bangladesh.