Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Improving methods and indicators for evaluating coastal water eutrophication: a pilot study in the Gulf of Maine

Study Goals and Objectives: 1) Improve existing nutrient-related eutrophication assessment methods, updating (from early 1990s to early 2000s) the eutrophication assessment for systems included in the study with the improved method. 2) Develop a human-use/socioeconomic indicator to complement the assessment indicator. The human-use indicator was developed to evaluate costs of nutrient-related degradation in coastal waters and to put the issue into a broader context relevant to the interested public and legislators as well as to scientists. 3) Project objectives included collecting existing water quality data, developing an accessible database appropriate for application to a national study, and applying the assessment methods to 14 coastal systems – nine systems north of Cape Cod and five systems south. The geographical distribution of systems was used to examine potential regional differences in condition. 4) The intent is to use the lessons learned in this pilot study on a national scale to guide completion of an update of the 1999 National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment.

Evaluating the quality of bycatch data and bycatch estimates among disparate fisheries

In 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, initiated development of a national bycatch report that would provide bycatch estimates for U.S. commercial fisheries at the fishery and species levels for fishes, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds. As part of this project, the need to quantify the relative quality of available bycatch data and estimation methods was identified. Working collaboratively with fisheries managers and scientists across the nation, a system of evaluation was developed. Herein we describe the development of this system (the “tier system”), its components, and its application. We also discuss the value of the tier system in allowing fisheries managers to identify research needs and efficiently allocate limited resources toward those areas that will result in the greatest improvement to bycatch data and estimation quality.

Evaluating the efficacy of managing West Coast groundfish resources through simulations

Management of West Coast groundfish resources by the Pacific Fishery Management Council involves Federal government and academic scientists conducting stock assessments, generally using the stock synthesis framework, applying the 40-10 rule to determine harvest guidelines for resources that are not overfished and conducting rebuilding analyses to determine harvest guidelines for resources that have been designated as overfished. However, this management system has not been evaluated in terms of its ability to satisfy the National Standard 1 goals of the Sustainable Fisheries Act. A Monte Carlo simulation framework is therefore outlined that can be used to make such evaluations. Based on simulations tailored to a situation similar to that of managing the widow rockfish (Sebastes entomelas) resource, it is shown that catches during recovery and thereafter are likely to be highly variable (up to ±30% from one year to the next). Such variability is far greater than has been presented to the decision makers to date. Reductions in interannual variability in catches through additional data collection are, however, unlikely. Rather, improved performance will probably arise from better methods for predicting future recruitment. Rebuilding analyses include quantities such as the year to which the desired probability of recovery applies. The estimates of such quantities are, however, very poorly determined.

Use of simple fat analysis for evaluating quality changes in intermediate moisture fish stored at tropical temperature

Changes in the quality of intermediate moisture (IM) fish during storage at 38°C were monitored by assessing the moisture content, pH, acid value, peroxide value and thiobarbituric acid (TBA) value periodically. Results adequately portrayed the hydrolysis and peroxidation of fats and the concomitant protein degradation and crosslinking reactions that have been shown by more sophisticated methods to occur in intermediate moisture fish. Since these changes markedly affect the organoleptic quality, acceptability/shelf-life and nutritive value of IM flesh-foods their predictability by simple fat analytical techniques is of practical value where/when the more sophisticated monitoring techniques are not feasible.