The Empirical Modeling of an Ecosystem

The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

The relationship between aquatic macrophytes and water quality in Nta-Wogba Stream, Port Harcourt, Nigeria

An empirical survey of macrophytes distribution and biomass from four stations, along Nta-wogba stream in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, was conducted between April and December 2007, to quantify the relationship between biomass, in stream nutrients and dissolved ions. The correlation analysis indicated that the biomass of the aquatic macrophytes under consideration, Einochloa pyramidalis; Diplazum sammatii; Cyperus difformis; Alternathera sessilis and Ludwigia decurrens were significantly (P<0.05) related to the nutrients: sulphate, ammonium; nitrate, and phosphate in all the stations. The measurement of total dissolved solid, which is correlated to ionic concentrations and turbidity, provided a rough indication of in stream light availability.

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

The time series of abundance indices for many groundfish populations, as determined from trawl surveys, are often imprecise and short, causing stock assessment estimates of abundance to be imprecise. To improve precision, prior probability distributions (priors) have been developed for parameters in stock assessment models by using meta-analysis, expert judgment on catchability, and empirically based modeling. This article presents a synthetic approach for formulating priors for rockfish trawl survey catchability (qgross). A multivariate prior for qgross for different surveys is formulated by using 1) a correction factor for bias in estimating fish density between trawlable and untrawlable areas, 2) expert judgment on trawl net catchability, 3) observations from trawl survey experiments, and 4) data on the fraction of population biomass in each of the areas surveyed. The method is illustrated by using bocaccio (Sebastes paucipinis) in British Columbia. Results indicate that expert judgment can be updated markedly by observing the catch-rate ratio from different trawl gears in the same areas. The marginal priors for qgross are consistent with empirical estimates obtained by fitting a stock assessment model to the survey data under a noninformative prior for qgross. Despite high prior uncertainty (prior coefficients of variation ≥0.8) and high prior correlation between qgross, the prior for qgross still enhances the precision of key stock assessment quantities.

Using the empirical Bayes method to estimate and evaluate bycatch rates of seabirds from individual fishing vessels

Minimizing bycatch of seabirds is a major goal of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service. In Alaska waters, the bycatch (i.e., inadvertent catches) of seabirds has been an incidental result of demersal groundfish longline fishery operations. Notably, the endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) has been taken in this groundfish fishery. Bycatch rates of seabirds from individual vessels may be of particular interest because vessels with high bycatch rates may not be functioning effectively with seabird avoidance gears, and there may be a need for suggestions on how to use these avoidance gears more effectively. Therefore, bycatch estimates are usually made on an individual vessel basis and then summed to obtain the total estimate for the entire fleet.

A collection of empirical relations for use in ecological modelling

This study summarizes previously published and updated empirical relations for the estimation of production/biomass ratios in benthic invertebrates; of natural mortality in benthic invertebrates and finfish; and of respiration from production and vice versa in animal populations. AMS-EXCEL spreadsheet containing these equations is available from the author via Email. They are also included in the Ecopath with Ecosim software.

Empirical equations for the estimation of natural mortality in Mediterranean teleosts

Empirical relationships were established linking estimates of the instantaneous rate of natural mortality (M), the von Bertalanffy growth parameters, L sub( infinity ) (or W sub( infinity )) and K, and annual mean water temperature in 56 stocks of Mediterranean teleosts fish. It is suggested that these relationships generate for these fish more reliable estimates of M than the widely-used model of Pauly (1980, J. Cons. CIEM 33(3):175-192), which was based on 175 fish stocks, but included only five stocks from the Mediterranean.

Review of size- and age-dependence in batch spawning: implications for stock assessment of fish species exhibiting indeterminate fecundity

Most assessments of fish stocks use some measure of the reproductive potential of a population, such as spawning biomass. However, the correlation between spawning biomass and reproductive potential is not always strong, and it likely is weakest in the tropics and subtropics, where species tend to exhibit indeterminate fecundity and release eggs in batches over a protracted spawning season. In such cases, computing annual reproductive output requires estimates of batch fecundity and the annual number of batches—the latter subject to spawning frequency and duration of spawning season. Batch fecundity is commonly measured by age (or size), but these other variables are not. Without the relevant data, the annual number of batches is assumed to be invariant across age. We reviewed the literature and found that this default assumption lacks empirical support because both spawning duration and spawning frequency generally increase with age or size. We demonstrate effects of this assumption on measures of reproductive value and spawning potential ratio, a metric commonly used to gauge stock status. Model applications showed substantial sensitivity to age dependence in the annual number of batches. If the annual number of batches increases with age but is incorrectly assumed to be constant, stock assessment models would tend to overestimate the biological reference points used for setting harvest rates. This study underscores the need to better understand the age- or size-dependent contrast in the annual number of batches, and we conclude that, for species without evidence to support invariance, the default assumption should be replaced with one that accounts for age- or size-dependence.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

Evidence from the Pacific Northwest for solar modulation of climate and of northern ecosystems

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 250-year net annual snow accumulation, or mass balance, time series derived from the Mt. Logan (Yukon) ice core has been spectrally analyzed and is found to contain a nominal 11-year waveform. The stable isotope time series contains a significant amount of power between 9 and 13 years, although this record is evidently not a straightforward proxy for air temperatures. The signal in the mass balance time series exhibits a close relationship with the sunspot cycle waveform and is, therefore, assumed to be related to it. Waveforms showing a high correlation with the solar cycle are found in other climate data in the region. ... Taken collectively, the data point to a link between solar variability, atmospheric variability, climate, and selected ecological dynamics in the Pacific Northwest, but other data, not presented, indicate these relationships may hold elsewhere. So far, the evidence is empirical; complete details of the physical mechanisms involved have yet to be synthesized in a satisfactory way.

An empirical study on income and efficiency of pond fish and nursery fish production in some selected areas of Pabna, Bangladesh

The study was designed to determine the costs, returns and relative profitability of pond fish and nursery fish production. In order to attain this objective, a total of 70 producers: 35 producing pond fish and 35 producing nursery fish were selected on the basis of purposive random sampling technique from 6 villages under two Upazilas (Sujanagar and Santhia) of Pabna district. It was estimated that per hectare per year gross cost of pond fish production was Tk 65,918 while gross return and net return were Tk 91,707 and Tk 25,789 respectively. Per hectare per year gross cost of nursery fish production was Tk 87,489 while gross return and net return were Tk 1,39,272 and Tk 51,783 respectively. The findings revealed that nursery fish production was more profitable than pond fish production. Cobb-Douglas production function was applied to realize the specific effect of the factors on pond fish and nursery fish production. It was observed that most of the included variables had significant impact on pond fish and nursery fish production. Out of five variables included in the function, all the variables had positive impact on return from pond fish production but stock value of pond, material cost and pond area had positive impact on return from nursery fish production.

Correlation of cell numbers with catalase activities of pure strains of bacteria

An attempt was made to correlate the catalase production with the actual number of aerobic bacterial cells generating the enzyme: bacteria were obtained from the surface of marine fish. A linear correlation was found between the log of catalase activity and log of bacterial count in single culture.