3 resultados para deviance

em Aquatic Commons


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Gillnet mesh selectivity parameters were estimated for juvenile blacktip sharks (Carcharhinus limbatus) by using length data from an experimental fishery-independent gillnet survey in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Length data for 1720 blacktip sharks were collected over 17 years (1994–2010) with seven mesh sizes ranging from 7.6 to 20.3 cm. Four selectivity models, a normal model assuming fixed spread, a normal model assuming that spread is proportional to mesh size, a lognormal model, and a gamma model were fitted to the data by using the SELECT (share each length’s catch total) method. Each model was run twice under separate assumptions of 1) equal fishing intensity; and 2) fishing intensity proportional to mesh size. The normal, fixed-spread selectivity curve where fishing intensity is assumed to be proportional to mesh size provided the best fit to the data according to model deviance estimates and was chosen as the best model. Results indicate that juvenile blacktip sharks are susceptible as bycatch in some commercial gillnet fisheries.

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Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.

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Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.