29 resultados para confidence measures

em Aquatic Commons


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Plant surface areas were measured from samples of two common submersed aquatics with widely diverging morphologies: Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and water stargrass ( Heteranthera dubia (Jacq.) MacM.). Measures for the highly dissected leaves of Eurasian watermilfoil involved development of a regression equation relating leaf length to direct measures of a subsample of leaf parts. Measures for the simple leaves of the stargrass were sums of measured triangles. Stem surfaces for both species were calculated as measured cylinders. Though the means of the stem length and leaf length were larger for stargrass samples, their mean surface area was 95 cm 2 which was less than the 108 cm 2 recorded for Eurasian watermilfoil samples. Relating surface area to dry weight for the stargrass was straightforward, with 1 mg of dry weight yielding an average 0.678 cm 2 of surface area. Biomass measures for the water milfoil were confounded by the additional weight of epiphytic algae persisting on cleaned samples. The results suggest that a lesstime consuming method for surface area measures of plants with highly dissected leaves and a caveat for using biomass measures to estimate surface area in such plants.

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In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty.

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This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

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ENGLISH: This study shows how the catch and effort statistics, from 1951 to 1956, of the fishery for yellowfin tuna, Neothunnus macropterus, in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, have been used to compute: (i) two indices of average population density; (ii) an index of concentration of effort on areas of greatest density of available yellowfin. These three indices were then used to determine: (i) quarterly and annual variation in each of them; (ii) the relationship between the two indices of density; (iii) the relationship of each of the indices to the number of exploited one-degree rectangles. To remove extreme sampling variation at low levels of effort, the data from all one-degree rectangles subjected to less than five logged days' fishing in a quarter were eliminated, and the computations were repeated for comparison with those of the original data. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer cómo las estadísticas sobre la pesca y el esfuerzo de pesca de la pesquería del atún aleta amarilla, Neothunnus macropterus, en el Océano Pacífico Oriental Tropical, durante 1951 a 1956, han servido para computar: (i) dos índices del promedio de la densidad de la población; (ií) un índice de la concentración del esfuerzo en las áreas de mayor densidad de atún aleta amarilla disponible. Estos tres índices han sido luego usados para determinar: (i) la variación trimestral y anual en cada uno de ellos; (ií) la relación entre los dos índices de densidad; (iii) la relación de cada uno de los índices con el número de rectángulos de un grado explotados. Para evitar la extrema variación del muestreo a bajos niveles de esfuerzo, se eliminaron los datos de todos los rectángulos de un grado sujetos a menos de cinco días de actividad pesquera durante un trimestre según los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora, y las computaciones se repitieron para compararlas con las de los datos originales.

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ENGLISH: In a previous Bulletin of this Commission, Griffiths (1960) discussed two indices of population density and an index of concentration of fishing effort of bait boats for yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Tropical Pacific for the 1951-1956 period. Yellowfin and skipjack tuna occur in the same general fishing areas and many of the commercial catches are composed of a mixture of the two species. It is desirable, therefore, to extend the investigation to skipjack and to the two species combined. SPANISH:En un Boletín anterior de esta Comisión, Griffiths (1960) se refiere a dos índices de la densidad de la población y a un índice de la concentración del esfuerzo de pesca de los barcos de carnada sobre el atún aleta amarilla en el Pacífico Oriental Tropical, correspondientes al período 1951-1956. Los atunes aleta amarilla y barrilete se encuentran en las mismas áreas generales de pesca y muchas de las pescas comerciales están compuestas de una mezcla de las dos especies. Es deseable, por lo tanto, ampliar la investigación en lo que se refiere al barrilete y a las dos especies combinadas.

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This Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) workshop was convened to assess the availability and state of development of conductivity-temperature sensors that can meet the needs of coastal monitoring and management communities. Rased on the discussion, there are presently a number of commercial sensor options available, with a wide range of package configurations suitable for deployment in a range of coastal environments. However, some of the central questions posed in the workshop planning documents were left somewhat unresolved. The workshop description emphasized coastal management requirements and, in particular, whether less expensive, easily deployed, lower-resolution instruments might serve many management needs. While several participants expressed interest in this class of conductivity-temperature sensors, based on input from the manufacturers, it is not clear that simply relaxing the present level of resolution of existing instruments will result in instruments of significantly lower unit cost. Conductivity-temperature sensors are available near or under the $1,000 unit cost that was operationally defined at the workshop as a breakpoint for what might be considered to be a "low cost" sensor. For the manufacturers, a key consideration before undertaking the effort to develop lower cost sensors is whether there will be a significant market. In terms of defining "low cost," it was also emphasized that the "life cycle costs" for a given instrument must be considered (e.g., including personnel costs for deployment and maintenance). An adequate market survey to demonstrate likely applications and a viable market for lower cost sensors is needed. Another topic for the workshop was the introduction to the proposed ACT verification for conductivity-temperature sensors. Following a summary of the process as envisioned by ACT, initial feedback was solicited. Protocol development will be pursued further in a workshop involving ACT personnel and conductivity-temperature sensor manufacturers.[PDF contains 28 pages]

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A three day workshop on turbidity measurements was held at the Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology from August 3 1 to September 2, 2005. The workshop was attended by 30 participants from industry, coastal management agencies, and academic institutions. All groups recognized common issues regarding the definition of turbidity, limitations of consistent calibration, and the large variety of instrumentation that nominally measure "turbidity." The major recommendations, in order of importance for the coastal monitoring community are listed below: 1. The community of users in coastal ecosystems should tighten instrument design configurations to minimize inter-instrument variability, choosing a set of specifications that are best suited for coastal waters. The IS0 7027 design standard is not tight enough. Advice on these design criteria should be solicited through the ASTM as well as Federal and State regulatory agencies representing the majority of turbidity sensor end users. Parties interested in making turbidity measurements in coastal waters should develop design specifications for these water types rather than relying on design standards made for the analysis of drinking water. 2. The coastal observing groups should assemble a community database relating output of specific sensors to different environmental parameters, so that the entire community of users can benefit from shared information. This would include an unbiased, parallel study of different turbidity sensors, employing a variety of designs and configuration in the broadest range of coastal environments. 3. Turbidity should be used as a measure of relative change in water quality rather than an absolute measure of water quality. Thus, this is a recommendation for managers to develop their own local calibrations. See next recommendation. 4. If the end user specifically wants to use a turbidity sensor to measure a specific water quality parameter such as suspended particle concentration, then direct measurement of that water quality parameter is necessary to correlate with 'turbidity1 for a particular environment. These correlations, however, will be specific to the environment in which they are measured. This works because there are many environments in which water composition is relatively stable but varies in magnitude or concentration. (pdf contains 22 pages)

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ENGLISH: The fishing power of the tuna purse-seine fleet of the eastern Pacific Ocean has increased since the early 1960's. Because the entire fleet seems to have adopted equipment and techniques to increase its efficiency in capturing tunas, traditional methods of adjusting catch rates to a reference vessel type of fixed efficiency to index tuna abundance from fishing success are inapplicable. Instead, a methodology for such adjustment based on a mathematical representation of purse seining activities is developed. Observed changes in efficiency in subprocesses of purse seining are then used to adjust catch rates when computing abundance histories for yellowfin and skipjack in large regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. SPANISH: La eficacia de pesca de la flota de cerco atunera en el Océano Pacífico oriental ha aumentado desde el comienzo del decenio de 1960. Como toda la flota parece haber adoptado equipo y métodos para incrementar su eficaciaen capturar atunes, no se pueden aplicar los métodos tradicionales de ajustar los índices de captura a un tipo normalizado de barco (es decir de eficacia fija) para indicar la abundancia del atún según los resultados de pesca. En su lugar se ha desarrollado un método para realizar tal ajuste basado en una representación matemática de las actividades de las embarcaciones de cerco. Cuando se calcula la abundancia histórica del atún aleta amarilla y barrilete en grandes regiones del Océano Pacífico oriental, se usan entonces los cambios observados en la eficacia de los subprocesos cerqueros para ajustar los índices de captura. (PDF contains 120 pages.)

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The Nigeria-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (KLFPP) promoted the distribution of genetically improved cocks to the Kainji Lake (Nigeria) fishing communities aiming to compensate for possible short-term income losses due to the implementation of fisheries management measures restricting the use of the Lake's resources and to provide alternative sources for income generation, especially for the women. Out of 5,075 cocks produced, 4,171 cocks were distributed at subsidized prices mainly to women in 116 fishing villages of Kainji Lake. During an impact survey carried out in 12 villages, 6-24 months after distribution, only 25% of the cocks distributed were seen. However, potential income for each beneficiary from the hybrid offspring was estimated at minimum 1,000 Naira per year

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The distinguished character of Particularly Sensitive Sea Areas (PSSAs) is that every application for PSSAs must be accompanied by Associated Protected Measures (APMs) which can make PSSAs efficient in practice.1 That is why APMs are regarded as the core feature of every PSSA.2 APM is “an international rule or standard that falls within the purview of an international maritime organization (IMO) and regulates international maritime activities for the protection of the area at risk.” So far, APMs have been approved by IMO as following: -Compulsory or recommended pilotage -Mandatory ship reporting -An area to be avoided -Traffic separation schemes -Discharge prohibition or regulations -Mandatory no anchoring areas -Deep water routes -Emission control areas (PDF contains 5 pages)

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In January 2006 the Maumee Remedial Action Plan (RAP) Committee submitted a State II Watershed Restoration Plan for the Maumee River Great Lakes Area of Concern (AOC) area located in NW Ohio to the State of Ohio for review and endorsement (MRAC, 2006). The plan was created in order to fulfill the requirements, needs and/or use of five water quality programs including: Ohio Department of Natural Resources (DNR) Watershed Coordinator Program; Ohio EPA Great Lakes RAP Program; Ohio DNR Coastal Non-point Source Pollution Control Program; Ohio EPA Total Maximum Daily Load Program; and US Fish & Wildlife Service Natural Resources Damage Program. The plan is intended to serve as a comprehensive regional management approach for all jurisdictions, agencies, organizations, and individuals who are working to restore the watershed, waterways and associated coastal zone. The plan includes: background information and mapping regarding hydrology, geology, ecoregions, and land use, and identifies key causes and sources for water quality concerns within the six 11-digit hydrological units (HUCs), and one large river unit that comprise the Maumee AOC. Tables were also prepared that contains detailed project lists for each major watershed and was organized to facilitate the prioritization of research and planning efforts. Also key to the plan and project tables is a reference to the Ohio DNR Coastal Management Measures that may benefit from the implementation of an identified project. This paper will examine the development of the measures and their importance for coastal management and watershed planning in the Maumee AOC. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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In addition to providing vital ecological services, coastal areas of North Carolina provide prized areas for habitation, recreation, and commercial fisheries. However, from a management perspective, the coasts of North Carolina are highly variable and complex. In-water constituents such as nutrients, suspended sediments, and chlorophyll a concentration can vary significantly over a broad spectrum of time and space scales. Rapid growth and land-use change continue to exert pressure on coastal lands. Coastal environments are also very vulnerable to short-term (e.g., hurricanes) and long-term (e.g., sea-level rise) natural changes that can result in significant loss of life, economic loss, or changes in coastal ecosystem functioning. Hence, the dynamic nature, effects of human-induced change over time, and vulnerability of coastal areas make it difficult to effectively monitor and manage these important state and national resources using traditional data collection technologies such as discrete monitoring stations and field surveys. In general, these approaches provide only a sparse network of data over limited time and space scales and generally are expensive and labor-intensive. Products derived from spectral images obtained by remote sensing instruments provide a unique vantage point from which to examine the dynamic nature of coastal environments. A primary advantage of remote sensing is that the altitude of observation provides a large-scale synoptic view relative to traditional field measurements. Equally important, the use of remote sensing for a broad range of research and environmental applications is now common due to major advances in data availability, data transfer, and computer technologies. To facilitate the widespread use of remote sensing products in North Carolina, the UNC Coastal Studies Institute (UNC-CSI) is developing the capability to acquire, process, and analyze remotely sensed data from several remote sensing instruments. In particular, UNC-CSI is developing regional remote sensing algorithms to examine the mobilization, transport, transformation, and fate of materials between coupled terrestrial and coastal ocean systems. To illustrate this work, we present the basic principles of remote sensing of coastal waters in the context of deriving information that supports efficient and effective management of coastal resources. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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This study examines how Thailand’s biodiversity conservation measures affect fishing communities, especially in the marine protected areas (MPAs) on the Andaman Sea coastline. It documents the various efforts of the local fishing communities to protect the resources in the area. Also included are recommendations for government agencies, civil society and the international community. [PDF contains 94 pages]

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In a small lake, intermittent destratification was installed after several other physico-chemical and physical in-lake therapy measures (phosphorus immobilization, permanent destratification) had been tested without great success. If an aerobic sediment-water interface can be maintained, intermittent destratification removes cyanobacteria and prevents optimal development of other members of the photoautotrophic plankton. During growing seasons, increasing abundances of small-bodied herbivores (Bosmina) and Daphnia may have accounted for relatively low phytoplankton biomass as well. Intermittent destratification is a very fast-working in-lake measure and seems to be applicable even in relatively shallow lakes (< 15 m), in which permanent destratification seems to be risky.

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Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.