Categorized bibliography for a conceptual model of salt marsh management on Merritt Island, Florida

Enclosed is a bibliography of 556 published articles, technical reports, theses, dissertations, and books that form the basis for a conceptual model of salt marsh management on Merritt Island, Florida (Section 1). A copy of each item is available on file at the Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Gainesville. Some relevant proprietary items and unpublished drafts have not been included pending permission of the authors. We will continue to add pertinent references to our bibliography and files. Currently, some topics are represented by very few items. As our synthesis develops, we will be able to indicate a subset of papers most pertinent to an understanding of the ecology and management of Merritt Island salt marshes. (98 page document)

Conceptual model of salt marsh management on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge, Florida: final report

Diking and holding water on salt marshes ("impounding" the marsh) is a management technique used on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) and elsewhere in the Southeast to: a) prevent the reproduction of saltmarsh mosquitos, and b) attract wintertering waterfowl and other marsh, shore, and wading birds. Because of concern that diking and holding water may interfere with the production of estuarine fish and shellfish, impoundment managers are being asked to consider altering management protocol to reduce or eliminate any such negative influence. How to change protocol and preserve effective mosquito control and wildlife management is a decision of great complexity because: a) the relationships between estuarine organisms and the fringing salt marshes at the land-water interface are complex, and b) impounded marshes are currently good habitat for a variety of species of fish and wildlife. Most data collection by scientists and managers in the area has not been focused on this particular problem. Furthermore, collection of needed data may not be possible before changes in protocol are demanded. Therefore, the purpose of this document is two-fold: 1) to suggest management alternatives, given existing information, and 2) to help identify research needs that have a high probability of leading to improved simultaneous management of mosquitos, waterfowl, other wildlife, freshwater fish, and estuarine fish and shellfish on the marshland of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. (92 page document)

A simulation model of the dynamics of Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens)

The article describes the key elements of a model simulating the dynamics of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Peruvian upwelling system (4 degrees to 14 degrees South). This model, based on coupled differential equations, is parametrized mainly using empirical data and functional relationships presented in two volumes issued by ICLARM in 1987 and 1989, and may thus be viewed as test of the hypotheses presented therein. Results to date suggest that present knowledge of mechanisms controlling the anchoveta stock is essentially consistent, and sufficient to build a model reflecting essential features of the stock biomass and recruitment dynamics.

Integrated conceptual ecosystem model development for the Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas coastal marine ecosystem: MARine Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) for South Florida

The overall goal of the MARine and Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made by both policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes the MARES project and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first two steps in the process, the development of conceptual diagrams and an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the first subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Florida Keys/Dry Tortugas (FK/DT). What follows with regard to the FK/DT is the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations beginning with a workshop held December 9-10, 2009 at Florida International University in Miami, Florida.

Integrated conceptual ecosystem model development for the southeast Florida coastal marine ecosystem: MARine Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) for South Florida

The overall goal of the MARES (MARine and Estuarine goal Setting) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made both by policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes MARES overall and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first step in the process, the development of an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the third subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Southeast Florida Coast (SEFC). What follows with regard to the SEFC relies upon the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations during workshops held throughout 2009–2012 in South Florida.

Integrated conceptual ecosystem model development for the southwest Florida shelf coastal marine ecosystem: MARine Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) for South Florida

The overall goal of the MARine and Estuarine goal Setting (MARES) project for South Florida is “to reach a science-based consensus about the defining characteristics and fundamental regulating processes of a South Florida coastal marine ecosystem that is both sustainable and capable of providing the diverse ecosystem services upon which our society depends.” Through participation in a systematic process of reaching such a consensus, science can contribute more directly and effectively to the critical decisions being made by both policy makers and by natural resource and environmental management agencies. The document that follows briefly describes the MARES project and this systematic process. It then describes in considerable detail the resulting output from the first two steps in the process, the development of conceptual diagrams and an Integrated Conceptual Ecosystem Model (ICEM) for the second subregion to be addressed by MARES, the Southwest Florida Shelf (SWFS). What follows with regard to the SWFS is the input received from more than 60 scientists, agency resource managers, and representatives of environmental organizations beginning with a workshop held August 19-20, 2010 at Florida Gulf Coast University in Fort Myers, Florida.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Maintaining the "public good" nature of improved fish strains: dissemination of knowledge and materials

Many sources of information that discuss currents problems of food security point to the importance of farmed fish as an ideal food source that can be grown by poor farmers, (Asian Development Bank 2004). Furthermore, the development of improved strains of fish suitable for low-input aquaculture such as Tilapia, has demonstrated the feasibility of an approach that combines “cutting edge science” with accessible technology, as a means for improving the nutrition and livelihoods of both the urban poor and poor farmers in developing countries (Mair et al. 2002). However, the use of improved strains of fish as a means of reducing hunger and improving livelihoods has proved to be difficult to sustain, especially as a public good, when external (development) funding sources devoted to this area are minimal1. In addition, the more complicated problem of delivery of an aquaculture system, not just improved fish strains and the technology, can present difficulties and may go explicitly unrecognized (from Sissel Rogne, as cited by Silje Rem 2002). Thus, the involvement of private partners has featured prominently in the strategy for transferring to the public technology related to improved Tilapia strains. Partnering with the private sector in delivery schemes to the poor should take into account both the public goods aspect and the requirement that the traits selected for breeding “improved” strains meet the actual needs of the resource poor farmer. Other dissemination approaches involving the public sector may require a large investment in capacity building. However, the use of public sector institutions as delivery agents encourages the maintaining of the “public good” nature of the products.

TUNPOP, a computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and the surface tuna fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

Impacts of climate change of seaports: A survey of knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators

Port authorities from around the world were surveyed to ascertain how administrators feel climate change might impact their operations, what level of change would be problematic, and how they plan to adapt to new conditions. The survey was distributed to 350 major ports through two leading international port organizations, the International Association of Ports and Harbors and the American Association of Port Authorities. (PDF contains 4 pages)

A GIS-based model of soil erosion and transport

Soil erosion is a natural process that occurs when the force of wind, raindrops or running water on the soil surface exceeds the cohesive forces that bind the soil together. In general, vegetation cover protects the soil from the effects of these erosive forces. However, land management activities such as ploughing, burning or heavy grazing may disturb this protective layer, exposing the underlying soil. The decision making process in rural catchment management is often supported by the predictive modelling of soil erosion and sediment transport processes within the catchment, using established techniques such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation [USLE] and the Agricultural Nonpoint Source pollution model [AGNPS]. In this article, the authors examine the range of erosion models currently available and describe the application of one of these to the Burrishoole catchment on the north-west coast of Ireland, which has suffered heavy erosion of blanket peat in recent years.

A model of the pelagic ecossystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: Recent calls for a more holistic approach to fisheries management have motivated development of trophic mass-balance models of ecosystems that underlie fisheries production. We developed a model hypothesis of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) to gain insight into the relationships among the various species in the system and to explore the ecological implications of alternative methods of harvesting tunas. We represented the biomasses of and fluxes between the principal elements in the ecosystem with Ecopath, and examined the ecosystem's dynamic, time-series behavior with Ecosim. We parameterized the model for 38 species or groups of species, and described the sources, justifications, assumptions, and revisions of our estimates of the various parameters, diet relations, fisheries landings, and fisheries discards in the model. We conducted sensitivity analyses with an intermediate version of the model, for both the Ecopath mass-balance and the dynamic trajectories predicted by Ecosim. The analysis showed that changes in the basic parameters for two components at middle trophic levels, Cephalopods and Auxis spp., exert the greatest influence on the system. When the Cephalopod Q/B and Auxis spp. P/B were altered from their initial values and the model was rebalanced, the trends of the biomass trajectories predicted by Ecosim were not sensitive, but the scaling was sensitive for several components. We described the review process the model was subjected to, which included reviews by the IATTC Purse-seine Bycatch Working Group and by a working group supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. We fitted the model to historical time series of catches per unit of effort and mortality rates for yellowfin and bigeye tunas in simulations that incorporated historical fishing effort and a climate driver to represent the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation-scale variation on the system. The model was designed to evaluate the possible ecological implications of fishing for tunas in various ways. We recognize that a model cannot possibly represent all the complexity of a pelagic ocean ecosystem, but we believe that the ETP model provides insight into the structure and function of the pelagic ETP. Spanish: Llamamientos recientes hacia un enfoque más holístico al ordenamiento de la pesca han motivado el desarrollo de modelos tróficos de balance de masas de los ecosistemas que sostienen la producción pesquera. Desarrollamos una hipótesis modelo del ecosistema pelágico en el Océano Pacífico oriental tropical (POT) con miras a mejorar los conocimientos de las relaciones entre las distintas especies en el sistema y explorar las implicaciones ecológicas de métodos alternativos de capturar atunes. Con Ecopath representamos las biomasas de los elementos principales en el ecosistema, y los flujos entre los mismos, y con Ecosim examinamos el comportamiento dinámico del ecosistema con el tiempo. Parametrizamos el modelo para 38 especies o grupos de especies (denominados “componentes” del modelo), y describimos las fuentes, justificaciones, supuestos, y revisiones de nuestras estimaciones de los distintos parámetros, relaciones basadas en dieta, capturas retenidas de las pesquerías, y descartes de las mismas en el modelo. Realizamos análisis de sensibilidad con una versión intermedia del modelo, para el balance de masas de Ecopath y las trayectorias dinámicas predichas por Ecosim también. El análisis demostró que cambios en los parámetros básicos para dos componentes en niveles tróficos medianos, Cefalópodos y Auxis spp., ejercieron la mayor influencia sobre el sistema. Cuando se alteraron el Q/B de los Cefalópodos y el P/B de los Auxis spp. de sus valores iniciales y se balanceó el modelo de nuevo, las tendencias de las trayectorias de la biomasa predichas por Ecosim no fueron sensibles, pero la escala fue sensible para varios componentes. Describimos el proceso de revisión al que fue sujeto el modelo, inclusive revisiones por el Grupo de Trabajo sobre Captura Incidental de la CIAT y un grupo de trabajo apoyado por el Centro Nacional para Síntesis y Análisis Ecológicos. Ajustamos el modelo a series de tiempo históricas de capturas por unidad de esfuerzo y tasas de mortalidad de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo en simulaciones que incorporaron esfuerzo de pesca histórico e impulsos climáticos para representar el efecto de variaciones a escala de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur sobre el sistema. El modelo fue diseñado para evaluar las posibles implicaciones ecológicas de la pesca atunera de varias formas. Reconocemos la imposibilidad de que el modelo represente toda la complejidad de un ecosistema oceánico pelágico, pero creemos que el modelo del POT mejora los conocimientos de la estructura y función del POT pelágico.

Sensitivity of angler benefit estimates from a model of recreational demand to the definition of the substitute sites considered by the angler

Fishery managers are mandated to understand the effects that environmental damage, fishery regulations, and habitat improvement projects have on the net benefits that recreational anglers derive from their sport. Since 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has worked to develop a consistent method for estimating net benefits through site choice models of recreational trip demand. In estimating net benefits with these models, there is a tradeoff between computational efficiency and angler behavior in reality. This article examines this tradeoff by considering the sensitivity of angler-welfare estimates for an increase in striped bass (Morone saxatalis) angling quality across choice sets with five travel distance cutoffs and compares those estimates to a model with an unrestricted choice set. This article shows that 95% confidence intervals for welfare estimates of an increase in the striped bass catch and keep rate overlap for all distance-based choice sets specified here.