PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity: Report of the 1999 MONITOR and REX Workshops, and the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Lower Trophic Level Modelling

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.07 Mb] MODEL Task Team Workshop Report Final Report of the International Workshop to Develop a Prototype Lower Trophic Level Ecosystem Model for Comparison of Different Marine Ecosystems in the North Pacific [pdf, 11.64 Mb] Report of the 1999 MONITOR Task Team Workshop [pdf, 0.32 Mb] Report of the 1999 REX Task Team Workshop Herring and Euphausiid population dynamics Douglas E. Hay and Bruce McCarter Spatial, temporal and life-stage variation in herring diets in British Columbia [pdf, 0.10 Mb] Augustus J. Paul and J. M. Paul Over winter changes in herring from Prince William Sound, Alaska [pdf, 0.08 Mb] N. G. Chupisheva Qualitative texture characteristic of herring (Clupea pallasi pallasi) pre-larvae developed from the natural and artificial spawning-grounds in Severnaya Bay (Peter the Great Bay) [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish and Jake SchweigertPacific herring: Common factors have opposite impacts in adjacent ecosystems [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Tokimasa Kobayashi, Keizou Yabuki, Masayoshi Sasaki and Jun-Ichi Kodama Long-term fluctuation of the catch of Pacific herring in Northern Japan [pdf, 0.39 Mb] Jacqueline M. O’Connell Holocene fish remains from Saanich Inlet, British Columbia, Canada [pdf, 0.40 Mb] Elsa R. Ivshina and Irina Y. Bragina On relationship between crustacean zooplankton (Euphausiidae and Copepods) and Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring (Tatar Strait, Sea of Japan) [pdf, 0.14 Mb] Stein Kaartvbeedt Fish predation on krill and krill antipredator behaviour [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Nikolai I. Naumenko Euphausiids and western Bering Sea herring feeding [pdf, 0.07 Mb] David M. Checkley, Jr. Interactions Between Fish and Euphausiids and Potential Relations to Climate and Recruitment [pdf, 0.08 Mb] Vladimir I. Radchenko and Elena P. Dulepova Shall we expect the Korf-Karaginsky herring migrations into the offshore western Bering Sea? [pdf, 0.75 Mb] Young Shil Kang Euphausiids in the Korean waters and its relationship with major fish resources [pdf, 0.29 Mb] William T. Peterson, Leah Feinberg and Julie Keister Ecological Zonation of euphausiids off central Oregon [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Environmentally forced variability in larval development and stage-structure: Implications for the recruitment of Euphausia pacifica (Hansen) in the Southern California Bight [pdf, 3.26 Mb] Scott M. Rumsey Inverse modelling of developmental parameters in Euphausia pacifica: The relative importance of spawning history and environmental forcing to larval stage-frequency distributions [pdf, 98.79 Mb] Michio J. Kishi, Hitoshi Motono & Kohji Asahi An ecosystem model with zooplankton vertical migration focused on Oyashio region [pdf, 33.32 Mb] PICES-GLOBEC Implementation Panel on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program Executive Committee and Task Team List [pdf, 0.05 Mb] (Document pdf contains 142 pages)

Life-stage recruitment models for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) on Georges Bank

Ichthyoplankton surveys have been used to provide an independent estimate of adult spawning biomass of commercially exploited species and to further our understanding of the recruitment processes in the early life stages. However, predicting recruitment has been difficult because of the complex interaction of physical and biological processes operating at different spatial and temporal scales that can occur at the different life stages. A model of first-year life-stage recruitment was applied to Georges Bank Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) stocks over the years 1977–2004 by using environmental and densitydependent relationships. The best lifestage mortality relationships for eggs, larvae, pelagic juveniles, and demersal juveniles were first determined by hindcasting recruitment estimates based on egg and larval abundance and mortality rates derived from two intensive sampling periods, 1977–87 and 1995–99. A wind-driven egg mortality relationship was used to estimate losses due to transport off the bank, and a wind-stress larval mortality relationship was derived from feeding and survival studies. A simple metric for the density-dependent effects of Atlantic cod was used for both Atlantic cod and haddock. These life stage proxies were then applied to the virtual population analysis (VPA) derived annual egg abundances to predict age-1 recruitment. Best models were determined from the correlation of predicted and VPA-derived age-1 abundance. The larval stage was the most quantifiable of any stage from surveys, whereas abundance estimates of the demersal juvenile stage were not available because of undersampling. Attempts to forecast recruitment from spawning stock biomass or egg abundance, however, will always be poor because of variable egg survival.

Modification of the biological intercept model to account for ontogenetic effects in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus)*

We investigated age, growth, and ontogenetic effects on the proportionality of otolith size to fish size in laboratory-reared delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus) from the San Francisco Bay estuary. Delta smelt larvae were reared from hatching in laboratory mesocosms for 100 days. Otolith increments from known-age fish were enumerated to validate that growth increments were deposited daily and to validate the age of fish at first ring formation. Delta smelt were found to lay down daily ring increments; however, the first increment did not form until six days after hatching. The relationship between otolith size and fish size was not biased by age or growth-rate effects but did exhibit an interruption in linear growth owing to an ontogenetic shift at the postflexon stage. To back-calculate the size-at-age of individual fish, we modified the biological intercept (BI) model to account for ontogenetic changes in the otolith-size−fish-size relationship and compared the results to the time-varying growth model, as well as the modified Fry model. We found the modified BI model estimated more accurately the size-at-age from hatching to 100 days after hatching. Before back-calculating size-at-age with existing models, we recommend a critical evaluation of the effects that age, growth, and ontogeny can have on the otolith-size−fish-size relations

Toward a rule-based biome model

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50 to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated either by competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes or by drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, hence the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken toward development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. ... The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including: explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.

On the use of combined compact scheme for numerical solution of the two-layer oceanic shallow water equations

Many types of oceanic physical phenomena have a wide range in both space and time. In general, simplified models, such as shallow water model, are used to describe these oceanic motions. The shallow water equations are widely applied in various oceanic and atmospheric extents. By using the two-layer shallow water equations, the stratification effects can be considered too. In this research, the sixth-order combined compact method is investigated and numerically implemented as a high-order method to solve the two-layer shallow water equations. The second-order centered, fourth-order compact and sixth-order super compact finite difference methods are also used to spatial differencing of the equations. The first part of the present work is devoted to accuracy assessment of the sixth-order super compact finite difference method (SCFDM) and the sixth-order combined compact finite difference method (CCFDM) for spatial differencing of the linearized two-layer shallow water equations on the Arakawa's A-E and Randall's Z numerical grids. Two general discrete dispersion relations on different numerical grids, for inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, are derived. These general relations can be used for evaluation of the performance of any desired numerical scheme. For both inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, minimum error generally occurs on Z grid using either the sixth-order SCFDM or CCFDM methods. For the Randall's Z grid, the sixth-order CCFDM exhibits a substantial improvement , for the frequency of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of the linear inertia-gravity waves of the two layer shallow water model, over the sixth-order SCFDM. For the Rossby waves, the sixth-order SCFDM shows improvement, for the barotropic and baroclinic modes, over the sixth-order CCFDM method except on Arakawa's C grid. In the second part of the present work, the sixth-order CCFDM method is used to solve the one-layer and two-layer shallow water equations in their nonlinear form. In one-layer model with periodic boundaries, the performance of the methods for mass conservation is compared. The results show high accuracy of the sixth-order CCFDM method to simulate a complex flow field. Furthermore, to evaluate the performance of the method in a non-periodic domain the sixth-order CCFDM is applied to spatial differencing of vorticity-divergence-mass representation of one-layer shallow water equations to solve a wind-driven current problem with no-slip boundary conditions. The results show good agreement with published works. Finally, the performance of different schemes for spatial differencing of two-layer shallow water equations on Z grid with periodic boundaries is investigated. Results illustrate the high accuracy of combined compact method.