Active reservoir management: a model solution

Steady-state procedures, of their very nature, cannot deal with dynamic situations. Statistical models require extensive calibration, and predictions often have to be made for environmental conditions which are often outside the original calibration conditions. In addition, the calibration requirement makes them difficult to transfer to other lakes. To date, no computer programs have been developed which will successfully predict changes in species of algae. The obvious solution to these limitations is to apply our limnological knowledge to the problem and develop functional models, so reducing the requirement for such rigorous calibration. Reynolds has proposed a model, based on fundamental principles of algal response to environmental events, which has successfully recreated the maximum observed biomass, the timing of events and a fair simulation of the species succession in several lakes. A forerunner of this model was developed jointly with Welsh Water under contract to Messrs. Wallace Evans and Partners, for use in the Cardiff Bay Barrage study. In this paper the authors test a much developed form of this original model against a more complex data-set and, using a simple example, show how it can be applied as an aid in the choice of management strategy for the reduction of problems caused by eutrophication. Some further developments of the model are indicated.

A catch-free stock assessment model with application to goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida

Many modern stock assessment methods provide the machinery for determining the status of a stock in relation to certain reference points and for estimating how quickly a stock can be rebuilt. However, these methods typically require catch data, which are not always available. We introduce a model-based framework for estimating reference points, stock status, and recovery times in situations where catch data and other measures of absolute abundance are unavailable. The specif ic estimator developed is essentially an age-structured production model recast in terms relative to pre-exploitation levels. A Bayesian estimation scheme is adopted to allow the incorporation of pertinent auxiliary information such as might be obtained from meta-analyses of similar stocks or anecdotal observations. The approach is applied to the population of goliath grouper (Epinephelus itajara) off southern Florida, for which there are three indices of relative abundance but no reliable catch data. The results confirm anecdotal accounts of a marked decline in abundance during the 1980s followed by a substantial increase after the harvest of goliath grouper was banned in 1990. The ban appears to have reduced fishing pressure to between 10% and 50% of the levels observed during the 1980s. Nevertheless, the predicted fishing mortality rate under the ban appears to remain substantial, perhaps owing to illegal harvest and depth-related release mortality. As a result, the base model predicts that there is less than a 40% chance that the spawning biomass will recover to a level that would produce a 50% spawning potential ratio.

A simulation model of the dynamics of Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens)

The article describes the key elements of a model simulating the dynamics of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Peruvian upwelling system (4 degrees to 14 degrees South). This model, based on coupled differential equations, is parametrized mainly using empirical data and functional relationships presented in two volumes issued by ICLARM in 1987 and 1989, and may thus be viewed as test of the hypotheses presented therein. Results to date suggest that present knowledge of mechanisms controlling the anchoveta stock is essentially consistent, and sufficient to build a model reflecting essential features of the stock biomass and recruitment dynamics.

Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.

A numerical model for prediction of oil, trajectory due to extraction activity in the north coasts of the Persian Gulf

This thesis considers a three- dimensional numerical model based on 3-D Navier— Stokes and continuity equations involving various wind speeds (North west), water surface levels, horizontal shier stresses, eddy viscosity, densities of oil and gas condensate- water mixture flows. The model is used to simulate the prediction of the surface movement of oil and gas condensate slicks from spill accident in the north coasts of Persian Gulf.