30 resultados para anticipated regret

em Aquatic Commons


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South Africa's marine resources are essentially fully exploited and in some cases over exploited. The Government of National Unity has embarked on the ambitious Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) to: meet the basic needs; develop the country's human resources; build economy; and democratize the state and society. Although fisheries can only be expected to play a minor role in contributing to RDP, the Programme have a role to play in managing South Africa's living marine resources. The role of RDP in fisheries management is presented together with fisheries management approaches to help achieve the aims of the RDP.

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EBM HISTORY References CANADA Overview Activities to date Integrated Management implementation in Canada Objectives, indicators and reference points Assessment approaches Research directions for the future Management directions for the future References JAPAN Overview Conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources Harvest control by TAC system Stock Recovery Plan and effort regulation system Stock enhancement by hatchery-produced juvenile release Conservation and sustainable develop-ment on coastal waters The implementation of ecosystem-based management PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Overview Current actions Output control Input control Summer fishing ban Enhance ecosystem health REPUBLIC OF KOREA Initiatives and actions of ecosystem-based management in Korea Current ecosystem-based management initiatives in Korea Precautionary TAC-based fishery management Closed fishing season/areas Fish size- and sex-controls Fishing gear design restrictions Marine protected areas (MPA) RUSSIA Existing and anticipated ecosystem-based management initiatives Issues related to the implementation of ecosystem-based management UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Definitions and approaches to ecosystem-based fishery management in the United States Present U.S. legislative mandates relating to ecosystem-based fishery management Target species Bycatch species Threatened or endangered species Habitats Food webs Ecosystems Integration of legislative mandates into an ecosystem approach Scientific issues in implementing ecosystem-based approaches References DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDICES Appendix 10.1 Study group membership and participants Appendix 10.2 Terminology definitions Appendix 10.3 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management in Alaska: Alaska groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.4 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management off the West Coast of the United States: Pacific Coast groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.5 Descriptions of multi-species and ecosystem models developed or under development in the U.S. North Pacific region that might be used to predict effects of fishing on ecosystems Appendix 10.6 A potential standard reporting format (developed by Australia, and currently being used by the U.S.A in their contribution to this report) (83 page document)

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This report amplifies and refines some of the data already issued covering the water resources of Volusia County, which were published as Report of Investigations No. 21. The work in the report was accomplished as a cooperative program between the Department of Natural Resources, the U. S. Geological Survey and the Board of County Commissioners of Volusia County. Volusia County is almost totally dependent upon the water which falls upon the county and has a recharge area contained along the western portion and the central portions of the county. Excellent water is produced in the areal recharge and it is anticipated that this data will expand the existing knowledge of the water resources to permit the development of a great capacity for existing utilities and to offset and solve some of the problems now in the area. (PDF has 71 pages.)

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Summary: This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted within the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS), located between Cape Cod and Cape Ann at the mouth of Massachusetts Bay. The survey was conducted June 14 – June 21, 2008 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-08-09-CCEHBR. Multiple indicators of ecological condition and human dimensions were sampled synoptically at each of 30 stations throughout SBNMS using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. In addition to the fish samples that were collected for analysis of chemical contaminants relative to human-health consumption limits, other human-dimension indicators were sampled as well including presence or absence of fishing gear, vessels, surface trash, marine mammals, and noxious sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout SBNMS, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed. The results are anticipated to be of value in supporting goals of the SBNMS and National Marine Sanctuary Program aimed at the characterization, protection, and management of sanctuary resources (pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuary Reauthorization Act) as well as a new priority of NCCOS and NOAA to apply Ecosystem Based approaches to the Management of coastal resources (EBM) through Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) conducted in various coastal regions of the U.S. including the Northeast Atlantic continental shelf. This was a multi-disciplinary partnership effort made possible by scientists from the following organizations:  NOAA, National Ocean Service (NOS), National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), Charleston, SC.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Atlantic Ecology Division (GED), Narragansett, RI.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Gulf Ecology Division (GED), Gulf Breeze, FL.  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Wetlands Research Center, Gulf Breeze Project Office, Gulf Breeze, FL.  NOAA, Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), NOAA ship Nancy Foster. (31pp) (PDF contains 58 pages)

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A series of studies was initiated to assess the condition of benthic macroinfauna and chemical contaminant levels in sediments and biota of the Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) and nearby shelf waters off the coast of Georgia. Four key objectives of the research are (1) to document existing environmental conditions within the sanctuary in order to provide a quantitative benchmark for tracking any future changes due to either natural or human disturbances; (2) to examine broader cross-shelf spatial patterns in benthic fauna and sediment contaminant concentrations and to identify potential controlling factors associated with the observed patterns; (3) to assess any between-year temporal variability in benthic fauna; and (4) to evaluate the importance of benthic fauna as prey for higher trophic levels. Such questions are being addressed to help fulfill long-term science and management goals of the GRNMS. However, it is anticipated that the information will be of additional value in broadening our understanding of the surrounding South Atlantic Bight (SAB) ecosystem and in bringing the knowledge to bear on related resourcemanagement issues of the region. We have begun to address the first three of these objectives with data from samples collected in spring 2000 at stations within GRNMS, and in spring 2001 at stations within the sanctuary and along three cross-shelf transects extending from the mouths of Sapelo, Doboy, and Altamaha Sounds out to sanctuary depths (about 17-20 m). This report provides a description of baseline conditions within the sanctuary, based on results of the spring 2000 survey (Section II), and uses data from both 2000 and 2001 to examine overall spatial and temporal patterns in biological and chemical variables within the sanctuary and surrounding inner-shelf environment (Section III). (PDF contains 65 pages)

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This document presents the results of the first two monitoring events to track the recovery of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Wellwood vessel grounding incident of August 4, 1984. This grounding occurred within the boundaries of what at the time was designated the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary (NMS), now designated the Key Largo NMS Existing Management Area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA) 16 U.S.C. 1431 et seq., and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act (FKNMSPA) of 1990, NOAA is the federal trustee for the natural and cultural resources of the FKNMS. Under Section 312 of the NMSA, NOAA has the authority to recover monetary damages for injury, destruction, or loss of Sanctuary resources, and to use the recovered monies to restore injured or lost sanctuary resources within the FKNMS. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. To evaluate restoration success, reference habitats adjacent to the restoration site are concurrently monitored to compare the condition of restored reef areas with “natural” coral reef areas unimpacted by the vessel grounding or other injury. Restoration of the site was completed on July 22, 2002, and thus far two monitoring events have occurred; one in the Fall of 2004, and one in the Summer/Fall of 2006. The monitoring has consisted of: assessment of the structural stability of restoration modules and comparison of the coral recruitment conditions of the modules and reference sites. Corals are divided into Gorgonians, Milleporans, and Scleractinians and (except where noted) recruits are defined as follows: Gorgonians—maximum size (height) 150 mm at first monitoring event, 270 mm at second; Milleporans—maximum size (height) 65 mm at first event, 125 mm at second; Scleractinians—maximum size (greatest diameter) 50 mm at second event (only one species was size-classed at first event, at smaller size). Recruit densities at the restored and reference areas for each event are compared, as are size-class frequency distributions. For the Scleractinians, number and percentage of recruits by species, as well as several common biodiversity indices are provided. Finally, a qualitative comparison of recruit substrate settlement preference is indicated. Generally, results indicate that restored areas are converging on reference areas, based on almost all parameters examined, with one noted exception. Further monitoring is planned and the trends are anticipated to continue; close attention will be paid to the indicated anomaly. (PDF contains 63 pages.)

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ENGLISH: 1. Quantitative phytoplankton samples were collected by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission at the surface and ten meters in the Gulf of Panama, as follows: a) 18-21 March, 1958 (31 stations)-during the height of the upwelling season, b) 10-12 July, 1957 (10 stations)-during the transition to the rainy season at a time when mild upwelling winds reappear, c) 7-8 November, 1957 (15 stations)-during the height of the rainy season. 2. Maximum phytoplankton populations occurred during the upwelling season, followed by a considerable decline during July, and a further Subsidence during November. 3. A remarkable regional uniformity in species composition was observed during the surveys despite regional differences in growth conditions. Diatoms overwhelmingly dominated the communities. 4. During all surveys, the innermost regions, generally north of 8°30'N, were the most productive. The least productive areas were in the offing of San Miguel Bay and Parita Bay, suggesting that nutrient accretion via runoff is inadequate to sustain sizeable autotrophic plant populations in those regions. 5. During all surveys, phytoplankton growth appeared to be limited by nutrient availability. 6. During all surveys, phytoplankton growth appeared to be related to depth of the water column. 7. Although below average rainfall contributed to unusually favorable growth conditions (reduced stability, increased transparency and, presumably, nutrient reserves) during the November survey relative to November 1955 and 1956 at 8°45'N, 79°23'W, the anticipated heightened phytoplankton response was not observed. 8. During the November survey, the local diatom responses and their regional fluctuations could be satisfactorily related to the accompanying surface salinity conditions. However, this correspondence is undoubtedly attributable to factors associated with the observed salinity levels, probably nutrients, rather than salinity directly. 9. Unusually warm conditions occurred during the March survey, attributable to considerably weaker upwelling winds than normally occurring then, which contributed to a considerably lower standing crop and a retardation in succession of three to five weeks relative to that observed during 1955-1957 at 8°45'N, 79°23'W in the Gulf of Panama. 10. During the March survey, a well defined inverse relationship existed between mean temperature and mean diatom abundance in the upper ten meters, and between transparency and mean diatom abundance. A direct relationship occurred between surface salinity and mean diatom abundance in the upper ten meters. These relationships are interpreted to indicate that diatom abundance primarily reflected the nutrient concentrations associated with a given upwelling intensity, rather than describing casual relationships. 11. The survey results indicate that the phytoplankton dynamics observed at 8°45'N, 79°23'W from November, 1954 through May, 1957 are generally representative of the Gulf of Panama. 12. The following new forms, to be described in a later publication, were observed during the surveys: Actinoptychus undulatus f. catenata n.f., Asterionella japonica f. tropicum n.f., Leptocylindrus maximus n. sp., Skeletonema costatum f. tropicum n.f. SPANISH: 1. La Comisión Interamericana del Atun Tropical recolectó en el Golfo de Panama muestras cuantitativas de fitoplancton en la superficie y a los diez metros, como sigue: a) Del 18 al 21 de marzo de 1958 (31 estaciones)-durante el maximum de la estación de afloramiento. b) Del 10 al 12 de julio de 1957 (10 estaciones)-durante la epóca de transición a la estación lluviosa cuando reaparecen los vientos ligeros que causan el afloramiento. c) Del 7 al 8 de noviembre de 1957 (15 estaciones)-durante el maximum de la estación lluviosa. 2. Las poblaciones maximas de fitoplancton aparecieron durante la estación de afloramiento, seguido por una considerable disminución durante el mes de julio y una calma durante noviembre. 3. Durante la investigación se observó una remarcable uniformidad regional en la composición de las especies a pesar de las diferencias regionales en las condiciones de crecimiento. Las diatomeas predominaban en gran numero en las comunidades. 4. Durante todas las investigaciones, las regiones mas cerca de la costa, generalmente al norte de los 8°30'N, eran las mas productivas. Las areas menos productivas fueron las mar afuera de las Bahias de San Miguel y Parita, lo que sugiere que el aumento en las sales nutritivas causado por las escorrentias es inadecuado para sostener poblaciones grandes de plantas autotróficas en estas regiones. 5. Durante todas las investigaciones, el crecimiento del fitoplancton parecio estar limitado por la disponibilidad de las. sales nutritivas. 6. Durante todas las investigaciones el crecimiento del fitoplancton parecio estar relacionado con la profundidad de la columna de agua. 7. Aunque las precipitacion por debajo del promedio normal contribuyo a condiciones desusadamente favorables de crecimiento (estabilidad reducida, aumento de la transparencia y, presumiblemente, de la reserva de sales nutritivas) durante la investigación de noviembre en relación a noviembre de 1955 y de 1956 en los 8°45'N, 79°23'W, no se observo-la alta reacción de fitoplancton que se esperaba. 8. Durante la investigación de noviembre, las reacciones locales de las diatomeas y sus fluctuaciones regionales pudieron relacionarse en forma satisfactoria con condiciones asociadas con la salinidad de la superficie. Sin embargo, esta correspondencia puede atribuirse sin duda a factores asociados con los niveles observados de salinidad, probablemente con las sales nutritivas, en lugar de directamente con la salinidad. 9. Condiciones calurosas no comunes ocurrieron durante la investigación de marzo, las que pueden atribuirse a que los vientos que ocasionan el afloramiento fueran mas debiles que los normales, lo que contribuyó a que la cosecha estable fuera considerablemente mas baja y a la demora de tres a cinco semanas en la sucecion relativa a la que se observó durante 1955-1957 en los 8°45'N, 8°23'W, en el Golfo de Panama. 10. Durante la investigación de marzo, existió una relación inversa bien definida entre la temperatura y la abundancia media de las diatomeas en los diez metros superiores, y entre la transparencia y la abundancia media de las diatomeas. Una relación directa ocurrio entre la salinidad de superficie y la abundancia media de las diatomeas en los diez metros superiores. Estas relaciones se interpretan como indicadoras de que la abundancia de diatomeas refleja primeramente las concentraciones de las sales nutritivas asociadas con una intensidad de afloramiento dada, en lugar de describir relaciones causales. 11. Los resultados de la investigacion indican que la dinamica del fitoplancton observada en los 8°45'N, 79°23'W, desde noviembre de 1954 a mayo de 1957, es generalmente representativa del Golfo de Panama. 12. Durante las investigaciones se observaron las siguientes formas nuevas, las que seran descritas en una publicación posterior: Actinoptychus undulatus f. catenata n.f., Asterionella japonica f. tropicum n.f., Leptocylindrus maximus n. sp., Skeletonema costatum f. tropicum n.f.

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The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) Workshop "Making Oxygen Measurements Routine Like Temperature" was convened in St. Petersburg, Florida, January 4th - 6th, 2006. This event was sponsored by the University of South Florida (USF) College of Marine Science, an ACT partner institution and co-hosted by the Ocean Research Interactive Observatory Networks (ORION). Participants from researcldacademia, resource management, industry, and engineering sectors collaborated with the aim to foster ideas and information on how to make measuring dissolved oxygen a routine part of a coastal or open ocean observing system. Plans are in motion to develop large scale ocean observing systems as part of the US Integrated Ocean Observing System (100s; see http://ocean.us) and the NSF Ocean Observatory Initiative (001; see http://www.orionprogram.org/00I/default.hl). These systems will require biological and chemical sensors that can be deployed in large numbers, with high reliability, and for extended periods of time (years). It is also likely that the development cycle for new sensors is sufficiently long enough that completely new instruments, which operate on novel principles, cannot be developed before these complex observing systems will be deployed. The most likely path to development of robust, reliable, high endurance sensors in the near future is to move the current generation of sensors to a much greater degree of readiness. The ACT Oxygen Sensor Technology Evaluation demonstrated two important facts that are related to the need for sensors. There is a suite of commercially available sensors that can, in some circumstances, generate high quality data; however, the evaluation also showed that none of the sensors were able to generate high quality data in all circumstances for even one month time periods due to biofouling issues. Many groups are attempting to use oxygen sensors in large observing programs; however, there often seems to be limited communication between these groups and they often do not have access to sophisticated engineering resources. Instrument manufacturers also do not have sufficient resources to bring sensors, which are marketable, but of limited endurance or reliability, to a higher state of readiness. The goal of this ACT/ORION Oxygen Sensor Workshop was to bring together a group of experienced oceanographers who are now deploying oxygen sensors in extended arrays along with a core of experienced and interested academic and industrial engineers, and manufacturers. The intended direction for this workshop was for this group to exchange information accumulated through a variety of sensor deployments, examine failure mechanisms and explore a variety of potential solutions to these problems. One anticipated outcome was for there to be focused recommendations to funding agencies on development needs and potential solutions for 02 sensors. (pdf contains 19 pages)

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This study was carried out to establish trends in the cast net fishery of Kainji Lake, Nigeria. The cast net fishery was second in importance to the gillnet fishery in the early years after impoundment of the lake and still continues to be an important component of the fishery. Some of the economically important species such as Citharinus spp, Tilapia spp, Labeo spp, Alestes spp and Synodontis spp are exploited by cast nets. The study has not revealed any drastic perturbation in the species diversity, catch composition, and any real ecosystem overfishing. On the other hand, both the catfish, Auchenoglanis spp and the predator Hydrocynus spp appear to have increased in the catch in recent years. Never-the-less there is a decline in the mean weight of the major exploited fish species due to the capture of under sized fishes without allowing them to grow to 'legally' marketable sizes. The use of small meshed cast net and also fishing in the shallow waters of the lake can give rise to this situation. Thus, there are signs of growth overfishing in the fish stocks. It must also be acknowledged that the situation is complicated by the fact that in a multi-gear fishery as on Kainji Lake, the cast net fishery could not be managed in isolation without due regard to the other competing gears. The catch per unit of effort (CPUE) has declined in the cast net fishery possibly due to the increase in effort by the major fishing gears over the years. The ongoing extension campaigns by the KLFPP appears to be having the desired effect, as there was reduction in the number of the major fishing gears on the Lake in 1997. It can be anticipated that if this trend continues, the CPUE will recover in the long run. Yields observed from the mesh selectivity study revealed that for major species in the cast net fishery, both by number and weight, were maximal at 2.5 inch mesh, which contrasts with the fact that current minimum allowable mesh in the Fisheries Edict for the Lake is 2.0 inch. The adoption of 2.5 inch as the minimum allowable mesh in the cast net fishery is recommended to be included in future revision of existing regulations. It is also recommended that for this control to have a desired effect, the casting of the net from the shore should be prohibited so as to reduce the incidence of juvenile mortality in the nursery areas. (PDF contains 28 pages)

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Length frequency data was collected for the 6 main species from the Kainji Lake fishery for up to 16 months. Growth parameters were estimated and used for virtual - population and length based cohort analysis. The results from cohort analysis suggest that before the ban on beach seines the maximum economic yield from the fishery was overshot by 70%. Yield per recruit analysis showed that the fish are caught far below their optimum size. Fishing gears and the timing responsible for this early mortality have been identified. After the eradication of seines from the lake a 10% increase in total catch revenue can be expected from the fishery. This is equivalent to an increase in income of Naira 18,300 per annum for each fishing entrepreneur using other methods. A scenario for the regulation of cast net mesh size together with the ban of beach seines has been presented. A further increase of Naira 142 million (N25,500 per entrepreneur) can be anticipated if this is implemented by the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit. It is expected that the annual increase in fishing effort presently experienced will cause future yields to decline. The rate of the decline has been reduced by the eradication of the beach seine fishery and will further fall if the minimum mesh size for cast nets is implemented. A recommendation is made to the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit to first consolidate the beach seine ban and then to implement a ban of undersized cast nets. (PDF contains 70 pages)

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Toxic-waste associated with coastal brownfield sites can pose serious risks to human and environmental health. In light of anticipated sea-level rise (SLR) due to global climate change, coastal brownfields require heightened attention. The primary intent of this study is to pose questions and encourage discussion of this problem among policy makers. Impacts from SLR on coastal zones are examined within a brownfield policy framework and, current coastal brownfield policy discussions with respect to SLR are also examined. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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Climate change has rapidly emerged as a significant threat to coastal areas around the world. While uncertainty regarding distribution, intensity, and timescale inhibits our ability to accurately forecast potential impacts, it is widely accepted that changes in global climate will result in a variety of significant environmental, social, and economic impacts. Coastal areas are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change and the implications of sea-level rise, and coastal communities must develop the capacity to adapt to climate change in order to protect people, property, and the environment along our nation’s coasts. The U.S. coastal zone is highly complex and variable, consisting of several regions that are characterized by unique geographic, economic, social and environmental factors. The degree of risk and vulnerability associated with climate change can vary greatly depending on the exposure and sensitivity of coastal resources within a given area. The ability of coastal communities to effectively adapt to climate change will depend greatly on their ability to develop and implement feasible strategies that address unique local and regional factors. A wide variety of resources are available to assist coastal states in developing their approach to climate change adaptation. However, given the complex and variable nature of the U.S. coastline, it is unlikely that a single set of guidelines can adequately address the full range of adaptation needs at the local and regional levels. This panel seeks to address some of the unique local and regional issues facing coastal communities throughout the U.S. including anticipated physical, social, economic and environmental impacts, existing resources and guidelines for climate change adaptation, current approaches to climate change adaptation planning, and challenges and opportunities for developing adaptation strategies. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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The incidence of blue-green algal blooms and surface scum-formation are certainly not new phenomena. Many British and European authors have been faithfully describing the unmistakable symptoms of blue-green algal scums for over 800 years. There is no disputing that blue-green algal toxins are extremely harmful. Three quite separate categories of compound have been separated: neurotoxins; hepatotoxins and lipopolysaccharides. There is a popular association between blue-green algae and eutrophication. Certainly the main nuisance species - of Microcystis, Anabaena and Aphanizomenon are rare in oligotrophic lakes and reservoirs. Several approaches have been proposed for the control of blue-green algae. Distinction is made between methods for discharging algae already present (eg algicides; straw bales; viruses; parasitic fungi and herbivorous ciliates), and methods for averting an anticipated abundance in the future (phosphorous control, artificial circulation etc).

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Catch rates for both Nile perch (Lates niloticus) and dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea) from Kenyan waters of Lake Victoria have steadily increased through the 1980s, even though the fishing effort also increased during the same period. However, analysis of catch and effort data within and outside the Nyanza Gulf suggests an increase in catch rates due to a shift in effort from the inshore Gulf region to higher catch rates in the offshore region, rather than an increase in abundance. Analysis of catch rates by gear type both in and outside the Nyanza Gulf show that 1991 catch rates are lower than 1989 levels by 60-80% in some instances. Since the fishing power of these gears has increased during this period, it is likely that fish abundance declined more than catch rates. A dynamic population model is used to stimulate Nile perch dynamics. It indicates that a decline in catches should be anticipated.