Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

The Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders: Report on the Design, Implementation, and Descriptive Results for 2006

This technical memorandum documents the design, implementation, data preparation, and descriptive results for the 2006 Annual Economic Survey of Federal Gulf Shrimp Permit Holders. The data collection was designed by the NOAA Fisheries Southeast Fisheries Science Center Social Science Research Group to track the financial and economic status and performance by vessels holding a federal moratorium permit for harvesting shrimp in the Gulf of Mexico. A two page, self-administered mail survey collected total annual costs broken out into seven categories and auxiliary economic data. In May 2007, 580 vessels were randomly selected, stratified by state, from a preliminary population of 1,709 vessels with federal permits to shrimp in offshore waters of the Gulf of Mexico. The survey was implemented during the rest of 2007. After many reminder and verification phone calls, 509 surveys were deemed complete, for an ineligibility-adjusted response rate of 90.7%. The linking of each individual vessel’s cost data to its revenue data from a different data collection was imperfect, and hence the final number of observations used in the analyses is 484. Based on various measures and tests of validity throughout the technical memorandum, the quality of the data is high. The results are presented in a standardized table format, linking vessel characteristics and operations to simple balance sheet, cash flow, and income statements. In the text, results are discussed for the total fleet, the Gulf shrimp fleet, the active Gulf shrimp fleet, and the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet. Additional results for shrimp vessels grouped by state, by vessel characteristics, by landings volume, and by ownership structure are available in the appendices. The general conclusion of this report is that the financial and economic situation is bleak for the average vessels in most of the categories that were evaluated. With few exceptions, cash flow for the average vessel is positive while the net revenue from operations and the “profit” are negative. With negative net revenue from operations, the economic return for average shrimp vessels is less than zero. Only with the help of government payments does the average owner just about break even. In the short-term, this will discourage any new investments in the industry. The financial situation in 2006, especially if it endures over multiple years, also is economically unsustainable for the average established business. Vessels in the active and inactive Gulf shrimp fleet are, on average, 69 feet long, weigh 105 gross tons, are powered by 505 hp motor(s), and are 23 years old. Three-quarters of the vessels have steel hulls and 59% use a freezer for refrigeration. The average market value of these vessels was $175,149 in 2006, about a hundred-thousand dollars less than the average original purchase price. The outstanding loans averaged $91,955, leading to an average owner equity of $83,194. Based on the sample, 85% of the federally permitted Gulf shrimp fleet was actively shrimping in 2006. Of these 386 active Gulf shrimp vessels, just under half (46%) were owner-operated. On average, these vessels burned 52,931 gallons of fuel, landed 101,268 pounds of shrimp, and received $2.47 per pound of shrimp. Non-shrimp landings added less than 1% to cash flow, indicating that the federal Gulf shrimp fishery is very specialized. The average total cash outflow was $243,415 of which $108,775 was due to fuel expenses alone. The expenses for hired crew and captains were on average $54,866 which indicates the importance of the industry as a source of wage income. The resulting average net cash flow is $16,225 but has a large standard deviation. For the population of active Gulf shrimp vessels we can state with 95% certainty that the average net cash flow was between $9,500 and $23,000 in 2006. The median net cash flow was $11,843. Based on the income statement for active Gulf shrimp vessels, the average fixed costs accounted for just under a quarter of operating expenses (23.1%), labor costs for just over a quarter (25.3%), and the non-labor variable costs for just over half (51.6%). The fuel costs alone accounted for 42.9% of total operating expenses in 2006. It should be noted that the labor cost category in the income statement includes both the actual cash payments to hired labor and an estimate of the opportunity cost of owner-operators’ time spent as captain. The average labor contribution (as captain) of an owner-operator is estimated at about $19,800. The average net revenue from operations is negative $7,429, and is statistically different and less than zero in spite of a large standard deviation. The economic return to Gulf shrimping is negative 4%. Including non-operating activities, foremost an average government payment of $13,662, leads to an average loss before taxes of $907 for the vessel owners. The confidence interval of this value straddles zero, so we cannot reject, with 95% certainty, that the population average is zero. The average inactive Gulf shrimp vessel is generally of a smaller scale than the average active vessel. Inactive vessels are physically smaller, are valued much lower, and are less dependent on loans. Fixed costs account for nearly three quarters of the total operating expenses of $11,926, and only 6% of these vessels have hull insurance. With an average net cash flow of negative $7,537, the inactive Gulf shrimp fleet has a major liquidity problem. On average, net revenue from operations is negative $11,396, which amounts to a negative 15% economic return, and owners lose $9,381 on their vessels before taxes. To sustain such losses and especially to survive the negative cash flow, many of the owners must be subsidizing their shrimp vessels with the help of other income or wealth sources or are drawing down their equity. Active Gulf shrimp vessels in all states but Texas exhibited negative returns. The Alabama and Mississippi fleets have the highest assets (vessel values), on average, yet they generate zero cash flow and negative $32,224 net revenue from operations. Due to their high (loan) leverage ratio the negative 11% economic return is amplified into a negative 21% return on equity. In contrast, for Texas vessels, which actually have the highest leverage ratio among the states, a 1% economic return is amplified into a 13% return on equity. From a financial perspective, the average Florida and Louisiana vessels conform roughly to the overall average of the active Gulf shrimp fleet. It should be noted that these results are averages and hence hide the variation that clearly exists within all fleets and all categories. Although the financial situation for the average vessel is bleak, some vessels are profitable. (PDF contains 101 pages)

Geographical catch distribution of yellowfin and skipjack tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1967-1970, and fleet and total catch statistics, 1962-1970

ENGLISH: Logbook records of tuna vessels fishing in the eastern Pacific Ocean were used to prepare charts showing the distribution of yellowfin tuna and skipjack catches by i-degree area, by quarter of the year, and by gear, for the years 1967-1970. Recent changes in the geographical distribution of yellowfin catch are illustrated. Also given are annual catch statistics and the composition of the international tuna fishing fleets which operated in the Commission's Yellowfin Regulatory Area each year, 1962-1970. SPANISH: Los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora de los barcos pesqueros de atún en el Océano Pacífico oriental se usaron para preparar gráficos que presentan para los años de 1967-1970, la distribución de captura del atún aleta amarilla y barrilete por área de 1 grado, trimestre del año y, por las artes. Se ilustran los recientes cambios en la distribución geográfica de la captura del atún aleta amarilla. Se presentan también las estadísticas de captura anual y la composición de la flota internacional de pesca, que explota cada año el Area Reglamentaria de la Comisión, 1962-1970. (PDF contains 95 pages.)

Geographical distribution of yellowfin and skipjack tuna catches in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and fleet and total catch statistics, 1971-1974

ENGLISH: Logbook records of purse seiners and baitboats fishing for yellowfin and skipjack tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean were used to prepare charts showing the distribution of catches by l-degree area and quarter of the year for each gear and regulation status, for the years 1971-1974. Changes in geographical distribution of the catch over the four-year period are discernible. Information on annual catch statistics and fleet composition by country is presented. SPANISH: Los registros de bitácora de los cerqueros y clíperes (barcos de carnada) que pescan atún aleta amarilla y barrilete en el Océano Pacífico oriental se emplearon para preparar los diagramas en los que se indica la distribución de las capturas por área de 1 grado y trimestre, correspondiente a cada arte y condición reglamentaria en los años de 1971 a 1974. Se pueden distinguir los cambios en la distribución geográfica de la captura durante el período de cuatro años. Se presenta la información por país sobre las estadísticas de la captura anual y la composicón de la flota. (PDF contains 116 pages.)

Geographical distribution of yellowfin and skipjack tuna catches in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, and fleet and total catch statistics, 1975-1978

ENGLISH: Logbook records of purse seiners and baitboats fishing for yellowfin and skipjack tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean were used to prepare charts showing the distribution of catches by one-degree area and quarter of the year for each gear and regulation status, for the years 1975-1978. Changes in geographical distribution of the catch over the four-year period are described. Information on annual catch statistics and fleet composition by country is presented. SPANISH: Se emplearon los registros de bitácora de las embarcaciones cerqueras y de carnada que pescan atún aleta amarilla y barrilete en el Océano Pacífico oriental, para preparar los diagramas que indican la distribución de captura por zonas de un grado y trimestres del año de cada arte y condición de las reglamentaciones, en los años de 19'75 a 1978. Se describen los cambios de la distribución geográfica de la captura durante un período de cuatro Se presenta la información, por país, de las estadísticas de captura y de la composición de la flota. (PDF contains 120 pages.)

Age and growth of Mugil cephalus (Linnaeus, 1758) (Perciformes: Mugilidae) in Bonny Estuary

The age and growth of Mugil cephalus was investigated in Bonny Estuary, Nigeria, from January, 1995 to December, 1996. Length-weight relationships were isometric with length exponents of 2.84 (males), 2.90 (females) and 2.88 (overall). Modal length at age were 12.0cm, 20.9cm, 25.0cm, 28.4cm and 30.2cm TL for ages 0+, 1+, 2+, 3+ and 4+ respectively. Corresponding total weights were 20.01g, 78.93g, 173.12g, 217.61g and 247.50g, respectively. Asymptotic length (Lo) was estimated 33.2cm TL, asymptotic weight (W sub(o)) was 484g, growth coefficient K=0.55847 super(-1) and hypothetical age at zero length To = 0.152yr. Longevity, Tmax, was 5.0yr, length and weight growth performance indices were Q super(1)=2.79 and Q = 1.44, respectively. Total mortality, natural mortality and fishing mortality were z = 1.02yr super(-1), M=0.607yr super(-1) and F=O. 3129yr super(-1), respectively. The exploitation ratio E was 0.4048 and exploitation rate U = 0.2302yr super(-1)

For the determination of iron (II) and total iron with 2,2'-dipyridyl in mineral waters. Reduction of iron (III) with ascorbic acid [Translation from: Zeitschrift fur Analytische Chemie 209 340-341, 1965]

The determination of bi- and trivalent iron in proximity, in mineral waters has gained in significance, on biological and technical grounds. This short paper describes the procedure of the determination of bivalent iron and total iron in a water sample.

An Evaluation of the area stratification used for sampling tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean and implications for estimating total annual catches

The Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) staff has been sampling the size distributions of tunas in the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) since 1954, and the species composition of the catches since 2000. The IATTC staff use the data from the species composition samples, in conjunction with observer and/or logbook data, and unloading data from the canneries to estimate the total annual catches of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares), skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis), and bigeye (Thunnus obesus) tunas. These sample data are collected based on a stratified sampling design. I propose an update of the stratification of the EPO into more homogenous areas in order to reduce the variance in the estimates of the total annual catches and incorporate the geographical shifts resulting from the expansion of the floating-object fishery during the 1990s. The sampling model used by the IATTC is a stratified two-stage (cluster) random sampling design with first stage units varying (unequal) in size. The strata are month, area, and set type. Wells, the first cluster stage, are selected to be sampled only if all of the fish were caught in the same month, same area, and same set type. Fish, the second cluster stage, are sampled for lengths, and independently, for species composition of the catch. The EPO is divided into 13 sampling areas, which were defined in 1968, based on the catch distributions of yellowfin and skipjack tunas. This area stratification does not reflect the multi-species, multi-set-type fishery of today. In order to define more homogenous areas, I used agglomerative cluster analysis to look for groupings of the size data and the catch and effort data for 2000–2006. I plotted the results from both datasets against the IATTC Sampling Areas, and then created new areas. I also used the results of the cluster analysis to update the substitution scheme for strata with catch, but no sample. I then calculated the total annual catch (and variance) by species by stratifying the data into new Proposed Sampling Areas and compared the results to those reported by the IATTC. Results showed that re-stratifying the areas produced smaller variances of the catch estimates for some species in some years, but the results were not significant.

Estimativa da captura total de peixe e camarão das pescarias de emalhe e de arrasto da Baía de Maputo, em 1985

The most important fisheries of Maputo Bay (Mozambique) are the gill netting of the Hilsa kelee and the trawling of the shrimps Penaeus indicus and Metapenaeus monoceros . Data of capture and yields are presented and the number of artisanal fishing boats and semi-industrial fishing vessels is given.