Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.09 Mb] Section I - Presentations and Discussions at Plenary Sessions Introduction and Overview of Workshop Objectives [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Plenary Session Presentations [pdf, 2.23 Mb] Reports of the Breakout Group Discussions [pdf, 0.43 Mb] Closing Plenary Discussion and Recommendations [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Section II - Extended Abstracts of Individual Presentations at Breakout Group Sessions Breakout Group 1: Physical/Chemical Oceanography and Climate [pdf, 6.14 Mb] Breakout Group 2: Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Micronekton and Benthos [pdf, 28.14 Mb] Breakout Group 3: Fish, Squid, Crabs and Shrimps [pdf, 4.30 Mb] Breakout Group 4: Highly Migratory Fishes, Seabirds and Marine Mammals [pdf, 6.27 Mb] Appendix 1. Workshop agenda [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Appendix 2. List of participants [pdf, 0.13 Mb] (Document pdf contains 216 pages)

Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Measures of tuna abundance from purse-seine operations in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, adjusted for fleet-wide evolution of increased fishing power, 1960-1971

ENGLISH: The fishing power of the tuna purse-seine fleet of the eastern Pacific Ocean has increased since the early 1960's. Because the entire fleet seems to have adopted equipment and techniques to increase its efficiency in capturing tunas, traditional methods of adjusting catch rates to a reference vessel type of fixed efficiency to index tuna abundance from fishing success are inapplicable. Instead, a methodology for such adjustment based on a mathematical representation of purse seining activities is developed. Observed changes in efficiency in subprocesses of purse seining are then used to adjust catch rates when computing abundance histories for yellowfin and skipjack in large regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean. SPANISH: La eficacia de pesca de la flota de cerco atunera en el Océano Pacífico oriental ha aumentado desde el comienzo del decenio de 1960. Como toda la flota parece haber adoptado equipo y métodos para incrementar su eficaciaen capturar atunes, no se pueden aplicar los métodos tradicionales de ajustar los índices de captura a un tipo normalizado de barco (es decir de eficacia fija) para indicar la abundancia del atún según los resultados de pesca. En su lugar se ha desarrollado un método para realizar tal ajuste basado en una representación matemática de las actividades de las embarcaciones de cerco. Cuando se calcula la abundancia histórica del atún aleta amarilla y barrilete en grandes regiones del Océano Pacífico oriental, se usan entonces los cambios observados en la eficacia de los subprocesos cerqueros para ajustar los índices de captura. (PDF contains 120 pages.)

The classification and prediction of macroinvertebrate communities in British rivers

This article describes the progress of the River Communities Project which commenced in 1977. This project aimed to develop a sensitive and practical system for river site classification using macroinvertebrates as an objective means of appraising the status of British rivers. The relationship between physical and chemical features of sites and their biological communities were examined. Sampling was undertaken on 41 British rivers. Ordination techniques were used to analyze data and the sites were classified into 16 groups using multiple discrimination analysis. The potential for using the environmental data to predict to which group a site belonged and the fauna likely to be present was investigated.

Use of macroinvertebrate communities to detect environmental stress in running waters

This paper presents an account of some current uses of RIVPACS (River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System), a software package developed by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (UK). Background information is also given on the unique data-set on which the system is based. Before discussing RIVPACS, we consider the range of environmental stresses encountered in flowing-water systems and some of the ways in which stresses may affect macroinvertebrate communities. The wide application and relevance of the RIVPACS approach was recognised when it was chosen as the biological method for use throughout the UK in the 1990 River Quality Survey (RQS). In the concluding section we list some lessons learnt both from the 1990 survey and from our own testing exercise, and we outline current developments which will lead to a new version of RIVPACS for use in the 1995 RQS.

Mathematical models for the prediction of temperature distributions resulting from the discharge of heated water into large bodies of water

Mathematical models for heated water outfalls were developed for three flow regions. Near the source, the subsurface discharge into a stratified ambient water issuing from a row of buoyant jets was solved with the jet interference included in the analysis. The analysis of the flow zone close to and at intermediate distances from a surface buoyant jet was developed for the two-dimensional and axisymmetric cases. Far away from the source, a passive dispersion model was solved for a two dimensional situation taking into consideration the effects of shear current and vertical changes in diffusivity. A significant result from the surface buoyant jet analysis is the ability to predict the onset and location of an internal hydraulic jump. Prediction can be made simply from the knowledge of the source Froude number and a dimensionless surface exchange coefficient. Parametric computer programs of the above models are also developed as a part of this study. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Contract No. 14-12-570 under the sponsorship of the Federal Water Quality Administration.

Prediction and confirmation of seasonal migration of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem

During the last century, the population of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the California Current Ecosystem has exhibited large fluctuations in abundance and migration behavior. From approximately 1900 to 1940, the abundance of sardine reached 3.6 million metric tons and the “northern stock” migrated from offshore of California in the spring to the coastal areas near Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island in the summer. In the 1940s, the sardine stock collapsed and the few remaining sardine schools concentrated in the coastal region off southern California, year-round, for the next 50 years. The stock gradually recovered in the late 1980s and resumed its seasonal migration between regions off southern California and Canada. Recently, a model was developed which predicts the potential habitat for the northern stock of Pacific sardine and its seasonal dynamics. The habitat predictions were successfully validated using data from sardine surveys using the daily egg production method; scientific trawl surveys off the Columbia River mouth; and commercial sardine landings off Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island. Here, the predictions of the potential habitat and seasonal migration of the northern stock of sardine are validated using data from “acoustic–trawl” surveys of the entire west coast of the United States during the spring and summer of 2008. The estimates of sardine biomass and lengths from the two surveys are not significantly different between spring and summer, indicating that they are representative of the entire stock. The results also confirm that the model of potential sardine habitat can be used to optimally apply survey effort and thus minimize random and systematic sampling error in the biomass estimates. Furthermore, the acoustic–trawl survey data are useful to estimate concurrently the distributions and abundances of other pelagic fishes.

Prediction of discard mortality for Alaskan crabs after exposure to freezing temperatures, based on a reflex impairment index

Millions of crabs are sorted and discarded in freezing conditions each year in Alaskan fisheries for Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi) and snow crab (C. opilio). However, cold exposures vary widely over the fishing season and among different vessels, and mortalities are difficult to estimate. A shipboard experiment was conducted to determine whether simple behavioral observations can be used to evaluate crab condition after low-temperature exposures. Crabs were systematically subjected to cold in seven different exposure treatments. They were then tested for righting behavior and six different ref lex actions and held to monitor mortality. Crabs lost limbs, showed ref lex impairment, and died in direct proportion to increases in cold exposure. Righting behavior was a poor predictor of mortality, whereas reflex impairment (scored as the sum of reflex actions that were lost) was an excellent predictor. This composite index could be measured quickly and easily in hand, and logistic regression revealed that the relationship between reflex impairment and mortality correctly predicted 80.0% of the mortality and survival for C. bairdi, and 79.4% for C. opilio. These relationships provide substantial improvements over earlier approaches to mortality estimation and were independent of crab size and exposure temperature.

Abundance of adult horseshoe crabs (Limulus polylphemus) in Delaware Bay estimated from a bay-wide mark-recapture study

Estimates of the abundance of American horseshoe crabs (Limulus polyphemus) are important to determine egg production and to manage populations for the energetic needs of shorebirds that feed on horseshoe crab eggs. In 2003, over 17,500 horseshoe crabs were tagged and released throughout Delaware Bay, and recaptured crabs came from spawning surveys that were conducted during peak spawning. We used two release cohorts to test for a temporary effect of tagging on spawning behavior and we adjusted the number of releases according to relocation rates from a telemetry study. The abundance estimate was 20 million horseshoe crabs (90 % confidence interval: 13−28 million), of which 6.25 million (90% CI: 4.0−8.8 million) were females. The combined harvest rate for Delaware, New Jersey, Virginia, and Maryland in 2003 was 4% (90% CI: 3−6%) of the abundance estimate. Over-wintering of adults in Delaware Bay could explain, in part, differences in estimates from ocean-trawl surveys. Based on fecundity of 88,000 eggs per female, egg production was 5.5×1011 (90% CI: 3.5×1011, 7.7×1011), but egg availability for shorebirds also depended on overlap between horseshoe crab and shorebird migrations, density-dependent bioturbation, and wave-mediated vertical transport.

Sex-change rules, stock dynamics, and the performance of spawning-per-recruit measures in protogynous stocks

Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.