PICES Press, Vol. 15, No. 1, January 2007

PICES science – 2006 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2006 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Thank you note from the Past-Chairman of PICES (pdf, 0.1 Mb) A comparison of regional mechanisms for fish production: Ecosystem perspectives (pdf, 0.3 Mb) 2006 CREAMS/PICES international workshop and summer school (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.2 Mb) 2006 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2006 PICES Workshop on “Modeling iron biogeochemistry and ocean ecosystems” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Strolling through the NEMURO ecosystem model (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Climate and marine birds and mammals in the North Pacific (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Photo highlights of the PICES Fifteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 3.5 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific: Cooler and fresher in summer of 2006 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2006 (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Latest and upcoming PICES publications (pdf, 0.3 Mb) A seven-year effort of the PICES CCCC MODEL Task Team culminates in a dedicated issue of Ecological Modelling (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Japan joins PICES Marine Metadata Federation (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Argo: A 2006 status report (pdf, 0.3 Mb) New Chairmen in PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.2 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 2006

The state of PICES science - 2005 (pdf, 0.2 Mb) 2005 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Korea and U.S. federate metadata collection (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Studies on long-term variation of ocean ecosystem / climate interactions based on the Odate collection (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Hokkaido University Fisheries & Oceanographic Database CD-ROM (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Workshop on sardine and anchovy fluctuations (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Photo highlights of PICES XIV (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Workshop on SEEDS-II (pdf, 0.2 Mb) NPAFC-PICES joint symposium "The status of Pacific salmon and their role in North Pacific marine ecosystems" (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.2 Mb) New Chairman of the PICES Fishery Science Committee (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2005 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Latest and upcoming PICES publications (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.2 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES and GLOBEC to sponsor workshop on sub-arctic seas (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Professor Mikhail N. Koshlyakov - 75 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Obituary - Dr. Al Tyler (pdf, 0.1 Mb)

PICES Press, Vol. 13, No. 1, January 2005

The state of PICES science - 2004 (pdf 0.7 MB) 2004 Wooster Award (pdf 0.2 MB) Micronekton – What are they and why are they important? (pdf 0.5 MB) Upscaling for a better understanding of climate links to ecosystems (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Interns (pdf 0.1 MB) Report of the APN workshop on “Climate interactions and marine ecosystems” (pdf 0.6 MB) Photo highlights of PICES XIII (pdf 0.3 MB) Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific – summer 2004 (pdf 0.1 MB) The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2004 (pdf 0.3 MB) The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf 0.1 MB) Study Group on Fisheries Ecosystem Responses to Recent Regime Shifts completes its mandate for the provision of scientific advice (pdf 0.1 MB) PICES Calendar (pdf 0.1 MB) The new PICES Working Group on Ecosystem-based management (pdf 0.05 MB) CO2 data integration activity for the North Pacific (pdf 0.2 MB) Carbon cycle changes in the North Pacific (pdf 0.8 MB) New and upcoming PICES publications (pdf 0.8 MB)

Ecological condition of coastal ocean waters along the U.S. Western Continental Shelf: 2003

Executive Summary: The western National Coastal Assessment (NCA-West) program of EPA, in conjunction with the NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS), conducted an assessment of the status of ecological condition of soft sediment habitats and overlying waters along the western U.S. continental shelf, between the target depths of 30 and 120 m, during June 2003. NCA-West and NOAA/NOS partnered with the West Coast states (Washington (WA), Oregon (OR), and California (CA)), and the Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) Bight ’03 program to conduct the survey. A total of 257 stations were sampled from Cape Flattery, WA to the Mexican border using standard methods and indicators applied in previous coastal NCA projects. A key study feature was the incorporation of a stratified-random sampling design with stations stratified by state and National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) status. Each of the three states was represented by at least 50 random stations. There also were a total of 84 random stations located within NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast including the Olympic Coast NMS (OCNMS), Cordell Bank NMS (CBNMS), Gulf of Farallones NMS (GFNMS), Monterey Bay NMS (MBNMS), and Channel Islands NMS (CINMS). Collection of flatfish via hook-and-line for fish-tissue contaminant analysis was successful at 50 EMAP/NCA-West stations. Through a collaboration developed with the FRAM Division of the Northwest Fisheries Science Center, fish from an additional 63 stations in the same region and depth range were also analyzed for fish-tissue contaminants. Bottom depth throughout the region ranged from 28 m to 125 m for most stations. Two slightly deeper stations from the Southern California Bight (SCB) (131, 134 m) were included in the data set. About 44% of the survey area had sediments composed of sands (< 20% silt-clay), about 47% was composed of intermediate muddy sands (20-80% silt-clay), and about 9% was composed of muds (> 80% silt-clay). The majority of the survey area (97%) had relatively low percent total organic carbon (TOC) levels of < 2%, while a small portion (< 1%) had high TOC levels (> 5%), in a range potentially harmful to benthic fauna. Salinity of surface waters for 92% of the survey area were > 31 psu, with most stations < 31 psu associated with the Columbia River plume. Bottom salinities ranged only between 31.6 and 34.4 psu. There was virtually no difference in mean bottom salinities among states or between NMS and non-NMS stations. Temperatures of surface water (range 8.5 -19.9 °C) and bottom water (range 5.8 -14.7 °C) averaged several degrees higher in CA in comparison to WA and OR. The Δσt index of watercolumn stratification indicated that about 31% of the survey area had strong vertical stratification of the water column. The index was greatest for waters off WA and lowest for CA waters. Only about 2.6 % of the survey area had surface dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L, and there were no values below the lower threshold (2.3 mg/L) considered harmful to the survival and growth of marine animals. Surface DO concentrations were higher in WA and OR waters than in CA, and higher in the OC NMS than in the CA sanctuaries. An estimated 94.3% of the area had bottom-water DO concentrations ≤ 4.8 mg/L and 6.6% had concentrations ≤ 2.3 mg/L. The high prevalence of DO from 2.3 to 4.8 mg/L (85% of survey area) is believed to be associated with the upwelling of naturally low DO water across the West Coast shelf. Mean TSS and transmissivity in surface waters (excluding OR due to sample problems) were slightly higher and lower, respectively, for stations in WA than for those in CA. There was little difference in mean TSS or transmissivity between NMS and non-NMS locations. Mean transmissivity in bottom waters, though higher in comparison to surface waters, showed little difference among geographic regions or between NMS and non-NMS locations. Concentrations of nitrate + nitrite, ammonium, total dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and orthophosphate (P) in surface waters tended to be highest in CA compared to WA and OR, and higher in the CA NMS stations compared to CA non-sanctuary stations. Measurements of silicate in surface waters were limited to WA and CA (exclusive of the SCB) and showed that concentrations were similar between the two states and approximately twice as high in CA sanctuaries compared to OCNMS or nonsanctuary locations in either state. The elevated nutrient concentrations observed at CA NMS stations are consistent with the presence of strong upwelling at these sites at the time of sampling. Approximately 93% of the area had DIN/P values ≤ 16, indicative of nitrogen limitation. Mean DIN/P ratios were similar among the three states, although the mean for the OCNMS was less than half that of the CA sanctuaries or nonsanctuary locations. Concentrations of chlorophyll a in surface waters ranged from 0 to 28 μg L-1, with 50% of the area having values < 3.9 μg L-1 and 10% having values > 14.5 μg L-1. The mean concentration of chlorophyll a for CA was less than half that of WA and OR locations, and concentrations were lowest in non-sanctuary sites in CA and highest at the OCNMS. Shelf sediments throughout the survey area were relatively uncontaminated with the exception of a group of stations within the SCB. Overall, about 99% of the total survey area was rated in good condition (<5 chemicals measured above corresponding effect range low (ERL) concentrations). Only the pesticides 4,4′-DDE and total DDT exceeded corresponding effect range-median (ERM) values, all at stations in CA near Los Angeles. Ten other contaminants including seven metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ag, Zn), 2-methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, and total PCBs exceeded corresponding ERLs. The most prevalent in terms of area were chromium (31%), arsenic (8%), 2-methylnaphthalene (6%), cadmium (5%), and mercury (4%). The chromium contamination may be related to natural background sources common to the region. The 2-methylnaphthalene exceedances were conspicuously grouped around the CINMS. The mercury exceedances were all at non-sanctuary sites in CA, particularly in the Los Angeles area. Concentrations of cadmium in fish tissues exceeded the lower end of EPA’s non-cancer, human-health-risk range at nine of 50 EMAP/NCA-West and nine of 60 FRAM groundfish-survey stations, including a total of seven NMS stations in CA and two in the OCNMS. The human-health guidelines for all other contaminants were only exceeded for total PCBs at one station located in WA near the mouth of the Columbia River. Benthic species richness was relatively high in these offshore assemblages, ranging from 19 to 190 taxa per 0.1-m2 grab and averaging 79 taxa/grab. The high species richness was reflected over large areas of the shelf and was nearly three times greater than levels observed in estuarine samples along the West Coast (e.g NCA-West estuarine mean of 26 taxa/grab). Mean species richness was highest off CA (94 taxa/grab) and lower in OR and WA (55 and 56 taxa/grab, respectively). Mean species richness was very similar between sanctuary vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. Mean diversity index H′ was highest in CA (5.36) and lowest in WA (4.27). There were no major differences in mean H′ between sanctuary vs. nonsanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. A total of 1,482 taxa (1,108 to species) and 99,135 individuals were identified region-wide. Polychaetes, crustaceans and molluscs were the dominant taxa, both by percent abundance (59%, 17%, 12% respectively) and percent species (44%, 25%, 17%, respectively). There were no major differences in the percent composition of benthic communities among states or between NMSs and corresponding non-sanctuary sites. Densities averaged 3,788 m-2, about 30% of the average density for West Coast estuaries. Mean density of benthic fauna in the present offshore survey, averaged by state, was highest in CA (4,351 m-2) and lowest in OR (2,310 m-2). Mean densities were slightly higher at NMS stations vs. non-sanctuary stations for both the CA and OR/WA regions. The 10 most abundant taxa were the polychaetes Mediomastus spp., Magelona longicornis, Spiophanes berkeleyorum, Spiophanes bombyx, Spiophanes duplex, and Prionospio jubata; the bivalve Axinopsida serricata, the ophiuroid Amphiodia urtica, the decapod Pinnixa occidentalis, and the ostracod Euphilomedes carcharodonta. Mediomastus spp. and A. serricata were the two most abundant taxa overall. Although many of these taxa have broad geographic distributions throughout the region, the same species were not ranked among the 10 most abundant taxa consistently across states. The closest similarities among states were between OR and WA. At least half of the 10 most abundant taxa in NMSs were also dominant in corresponding nonsanctuary waters. Many of the abundant benthic species have wide latitudinal distributions along the West Coast shelf, with some species ranging from southern CA into the Gulf of Alaska or even the Aleutians. Of the 39 taxa on the list of 50 most abundant taxa that could be identified to species level, 85% have been reported at least once from estuaries of CA, OR, or WA exclusive of Puget Sound. Such broad latitudinal and estuarine distributions are suggestive of wide habitat tolerances. Thirteen (1.2%) of the 1,108 identified species are nonindigenous, with another 121 species classified as cryptogenic (of uncertain origin), and 208 species unclassified with respect to potential invasiveness. Despite uncertainties of classification, the number and densities of nonindigenous species appear to be much lower on the shelf than in the estuarine ecosystems of the Pacific Coast. Spionid polychaetes and the ampharetid polychaete Anobothrus gracilis were a major component of the nonindigenous species collected on the shelf. NOAA’s five NMSs along the West Coast of the U.S. appeared to be in good ecological condition, based on the measured indicators, with no evidence of major anthropogenic impacts or unusual environmental qualities compared to nearby nonsanctuary waters. Benthic communities in sanctuaries resembled those in corresponding non-sanctuary waters, with similarly high levels of species richness and diversity and low incidence of nonindigenous species. Most oceanographic features were also similar between sanctuary and non-sanctuary locations. Exceptions (e.g., higher concentrations of some nutrients in sanctuaries along the CA coast) appeared to be attributable to natural upwelling events in the area at the time of sampling. In addition, sediments within the sanctuaries were relatively uncontaminated, with none of the samples having any measured chemical in excess of ERM values. The ERL value for chromium was exceeded in sediments at the OCNMS, but at a much lower percentage of stations (four of 30) compared to WA and OR non-sanctuary areas (31 of 70 stations). ERL values were exceeded for arsenic, cadmium, chromium, 2- methylnaphthalene, low molecular weight PAHs, total DDT, and 4,4′-DDE at multiple sites within the CINMS. However, cases where total DDT, 4,4′-DDE, and chromium exceeded the ERL values were notably less prevalent at CINMS than in non-sanctuary waters of CA. In contrast, 2-methylnaphthalene above the ERL was much more prevalent in sediments at the CINMS compared to non-sanctuary waters off the coast of CA. While there are natural background sources of PAHs from oil seeps throughout the SCB, this does not explain the higher incidence of 2-methylnaphthalene contamination around CINMS. Two stations in CINMS also had levels of TOC (> 5%) potentially harmful to benthic fauna, though none of these sites exhibited symptoms of impaired benthic condition. This study showed no major evidence of extensive biological impacts linked to measured stressors. There were only two stations, both in CA, where low numbers of benthic species, diversity, or total faunal abundance co-occurred with high sediment contamination or low DO in bottom water. Such general lack of concordance suggests that these offshore waters are currently in good condition, with the lower-end values of the various biological attributes representing parts of a normal reference range controlled by natural factors. Results of multiple linear regression, performed using full model procedures to test for effects of combined abiotic environmental factors, suggested that latitude and depth had significant influences on benthic variables regionwide. Latitude had a significant inverse influence on all three of the above benthic variables, i.e. with values increasing as latitude decreased (p< 0.01), while depth had a significant direct influence on diversity (p < 0.001) and inverse effect on density (p <0.01). None of these variables varied significantly in relation to sediment % fines (at p< 0.1), although in general there was a tendency for muddier sediments (higher % fines) to have lower species richness and diversity and higher densities than coarser sediments. Alternatively, it is possible that for some of these sites the lower values of benthic variables reflect symptoms of disturbance induced by other unmeasured stressors. The indicators in this study included measures of stressors (e.g., chemical contaminants, eutrophication) that are often associated with adverse biological impacts in shallower estuarine and inland ecosystems. However, there may be other sources of humaninduced stress in these offshore systems (e.g., bottom trawling) that pose greater risks to ambient living resources and which have not been captured. Future monitoring efforts in these offshore areas should include indicators of such alternative sources of disturbance. (137pp.) (PDF contains 167 pages)

Cruise Report NOAA Ship McARTHUR II Cruise AR-04-04: Leg 2 (June 1-12, 2004): A pilot survey of deepwater coral/sponge assemblages and their susceptibility to fishing/harvest impacts at the Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS)

Summary: The offshore shelf and canyon habitats of the OCNMS (Fig. 1) are areas of high primary productivity and biodiversity that support extensive groundfish fisheries. Recent acoustic surveys conducted in these waters have indicated the presence of hard-bottom substrates believed to harbor unique deep-sea coral and sponge assemblages. Such fauna are often associated with shallow tropical waters, however an increasing number of studies around the world have recorded them in deeper, cold-water habitats in both northern and southern latitudes. These habitats are of tremendous value as sites of recruitment for commercially important fishes. Yet, ironically, studies have shown how the gear used in offshore demersal fishing, as well as other commercial operations on the seafloor, can cause severe physical disturbances to resident benthic fauna. Due to their exposed structure, slow growth and recruitment rates, and long life spans, deep-sea corals and sponges may be especially vulnerable to such disturbances, requiring very long periods to recover. Potential effects of fishing and other commercial operations in such critical habitats, and the need to define appropriate strategies for the protection of these resources, have been identified as a high-priority management issue for the sanctuary. To begin addressing this issue, an initial pilot survey was conducted June 1-12, 2004 at six sites in offshore waters of the OCNMS (Fig. 2, average depths of 147-265 m) to explore for the presence of deep-sea coral/sponge assemblages and to look for evidence of potential anthropogenic impacts in these critical habitats. The survey was conducted on the NOAA Ship McARTHUR-II using the Navy’s Phantom DHD2+2 remotely operated vehicle (ROV), which was equipped with a video camera, lasers, and a manipulator arm for the collection of voucher specimens. At each site, a 0.1-m2 grab sampler also was used to collect samples of sediments for the analysis of macroinfauna (> 1.0 mm), total organic carbon (TOC), grain size, and chemical contaminants. Vertical profiles of salinity, dissolved oxygen (DO), temperature, and pressure were recorded at each site with a small SeaCat conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) profiler. Niskin bottles attached to the CTD also obtained near-bottom water samples in support of a companion study of microbial indicators of coral health and general ecological condition across these sites. All samples except the sediment-contaminant samples are being analyzed with present project funds. Original cruise plans included a total of 12 candidate stations to investigate (Fig. 3). However, inclement weather and equipment failures restricted the sampling to half of these sites. In spite of the limited sampling, the work completed was sufficient to address key project objectives and included several significant scientific observations. Foremost, the cruise was successful in demonstrating the presence of target deepwater coral species in these waters. Patches of the rare stony coral Lophelia pertusa, more characteristic of deepwater coral/sponge assemblages in the North Atlantic, were observed for the first time in OCNMS at a site in 271 meters of water. A large proportion of these corals consisted of dead and broken skeletal remains, and a broken gorgonian (soft coral) also was observed nearby. The source of these disturbances is not known. However, observations from several sites included evidence of bottom trawl marks in the sediment and derelict fishing gear (long lines). Preliminary results also support the view that these areas are important reservoirs of marine biodiversity and of value as habitat for demersal fishes. For example, onboard examination of 18 bottom-sediment grabs revealed benthic infaunal species representative of 14 different invertebrate phyla. Twenty-eight species of fishes from 11 families, including 11 (possibly 12) species of ommercially important rockfishes, also were identified from ROV video footage. These initial discoveries have sparked considerable interests in follow-up studies to learn more about the spatial extent of these assemblages and magnitude of potential impacts from commercial-fishing and other anthropogenic activities in the area. It is essential to expand our knowledge of these deep-sea communities and their vulnerability to potential environmental risks in order to determine the most appropriate management strategies. The survey was conducted under a partnership between NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) and National Marine Sanctuary Program (NMSP) and included scientists from NCCOS, OCNMS, and several other west-coast State, academic, private, and tribal research institutions (see Section 4 for a complete listing of participating scientists). (PDF contains 20 pages)

PICES Press, Vol. 17, No. 1, January 2009

Major Outcomes from the 2008 PICES Annual Meeting: A Note from the Chairman (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES Science – 2008 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2008 PICES Awards (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Charles B. Miller – A Selective Biography (pdf, 0.4 Mb) Latest and Upcoming PICES Publications (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2008 OECOS Workshop in Dalian (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2008 PICES Workshop on “Climate Scenarios for Ecosystem Modeling (II)” (pdf, 0.1 Mb) PICES/ESSAS Workshop on “Marine Ecosystem Model Inter-Comparisons” (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Highlights of the PICES Seventeenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 0.5 Mb) 2008 PICES Summer School on “Ecosystem-Based Management” (pdf, 0.3 Mb) 4th PICES Workshop on “The Okhotsk Sea and Adjacent Areas” (pdf, 0.2 Mb) PICES WG 21 Rapid Assessment Surveys (pdf, 0.4 Mb) PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) PICES @ Oceans in a High CO2 World (pdf, 0.1 Mb) Coping with Global Change in Marine Social–Ecological Systems: An International Symposium (pdf, 0.1 Mb) The State of the Western North Pacific in the First Half of 2008 (pdf, 1.3 Mb) State of the Northeast Pacific through 2008 (pdf, 0.3 Mb) The Bering Sea: Current Status and Recent Events (pdf, 0.2 Mb) An Opinion Born of Years of Observing Timeseries Observations (pdf, 0.1 Mb) New Chairman for the PICES Fishery Science Committee (pdf, 0.1 Mb)

A chemical survey of standing waters in south-east England, with reference to acidification and eutrophication

This study looks at the distribution and magnitude of acidification and eutrophication in south-east England where there are no natural lakes but a large number of shallow artificial ponds. The study area is defined as the region lying within a 100 km radius of central London but excluding the area within the M25 motorway. Water samples were taken from 120 sites between mid-January and the end of February 1990, with a subsequent monthly survey of a subset of 31 of these waters. Twelve chemical variables were measured in the laboratory using standard techniques. PH values for the full dataset ranged from 3.2 to 8.4, although the majority of sites had pH values in the range 7.0 to 8.5; only five sites had a pH of less than 6.0. The five low pH sites expectedly had low alkalinities and are the only sites with values below 0.1 meq per litre. Concentrations of calcium, sodium, potassium, magnesium, chloride, sulphate and nitrate had normal distributions. The majority of sites had total phosphorus concentrations in the range 25 to 200 mu g per litre, although 10 sites had concentrations above 400 mu g per litre. The low number of acid sites suggests that surface water acidity is not a widespread regional problem in south-east England. However the survey shows that a large number of standing waters in the region have high total phosphorus and nitrate concentrations, and 89% may be considered moderately to considerably eutrophic.

PICES Press, Vol. 16, No. 1, January 2008

◾PICES Science in 2007 (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Wooster Award (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾FUTURE - A milestone reached but our task is not done (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) ◾International symposium on "Reproductive and Recruitment Processes of Exploited Marine Fish Stocks" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾Recent results of the micronekton sampling inter-calibration experiment (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 PICES workshop on "Measuring and monitoring primary productivity in the North Pacific" (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾2007 Harmful Algal Bloom Section annual workshop events (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾A global approach for recovery and sustainability of marine resources in Large Marine Ecosystems (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Highlights of the PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾Ocean acidification of the North Pacific Ocean (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Workshop on NE Pacific Coastal Ecosystems (2008 Call for Salmon Survival Forecasts) (pdf, 0.1 Mb) ◾The state of the western North Pacific in the first half of 2007 (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾PICES Calendar (pdf, 0.4 Mb) ◾The Bering Sea: Current status and recent events (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾PICES Interns (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Recent trends in waters of the subarctic NE Pacific (pdf, 0.3 Mb) ◾Election results at PICES (pdf, 0.2 Mb) ◾A new PICES award for monitoring and data management activities (pdf, < 0.1 Mb)

Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.