13 resultados para VaR Estimation methods, Statistical Methods, Risk managment, Investments

em Aquatic Commons


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Bycatch, or the incidental catch of nontarget organisms during fi shing operations, is a major issue in U.S. shrimp trawl fisheries. Because bycatch is typically discarded at sea, total bycatch is usually estimated by extrapolating from an observed bycatch sample to the entire fleet with either mean-per-unit or ratio estimators. Using both field observations of commercial shrimp trawlers and computer simulations, I compared five methods for generating bycatch estimates that were used in past studies, a mean-per-unit estimator and four forms of the ratio estimator, respectively: 1) the mean fish catch per unit of effort, where unit effort was a proxy for sample size, 2) the mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, 3) the ratio of mean fish catch to mean shrimp catch, 4) the mean of the ratios of fish catch per time fished (a variable measure of effort), and 5) the ratio of mean fish catch per mean time fished. For field data, different methods used to estimate bycatch of Atlantic croaker, spot, and weakfish yielded extremely different results, with no discernible pattern in the estimates by method, geographic region, or species. Simulated fishing fleets were used to compare bycatch estimated by the fi ve methods with “actual” (simulated) bycatch. Simulations were conducted by using both normal and delta lognormal distributions of fish and shrimp and employed a range of values for several parameters, including mean catches of fish and shrimp, variability in the catches of fish and shrimp, variability in fishing effort, number of observations, and correlations between fish and shrimp catches. Results indicated that only the mean per unit estimators provided statistically unbiased estimates, while all other methods overestimated bycatch. The mean of the individual fish to shrimp ratios, the method used in the South Atlantic Bight before the 1990s, gave the most biased estimates. Because of the statistically significant two- and 3-way interactions among parameters, it is unlikely that estimates generated by one method can be converted or corrected to estimates made by another method: therefore bycatch estimates obtained with different methods should not be compared directly.

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Based upon a global comparison of over 400 fisheries, the Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology was used to identify factors affecting the choice of growth estimation methods. Of the six factors examined, the growth rate (K) and asymptotic length (L8) explained most of the variations. Financial resources, i.e., Gross National Product (GNP), and latitude were also important factors.

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Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

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The desired species identified in this survey include mullets, catfishes, fast growing fish predators, species for control of weeds and grass it, ponds, cichlids and shrimps. Five coastal states: Lagos, Ondo, Bendel, Rivers, and Cross River were covered in the studies. Investigations were also carried into the major rivers and their tributaries. A combination of the estimation methods of Le Cren, (1962) and Pitcher and Mac Donald (1973) was employed in the analysis of data. From the detailed data collected from (1978-1985), the survey indicated that about 100 million fish seeds can be collected annually from Nigerian waters using appropriate gear-seine nets, cast nets, and fish traps. Of this number, 60% is available along the coastal belt of the country while 40% is in the major rivers, their tributaries and swamps. At the present level of fish culture development in Nigeria, this is more than enough, even after allowing for 50% mortality due to handling and transportation stress

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In 2006, the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, initiated development of a national bycatch report that would provide bycatch estimates for U.S. commercial fisheries at the fishery and species levels for fishes, marine mammals, sea turtles, and seabirds. As part of this project, the need to quantify the relative quality of available bycatch data and estimation methods was identified. Working collaboratively with fisheries managers and scientists across the nation, a system of evaluation was developed. Herein we describe the development of this system (the “tier system”), its components, and its application. We also discuss the value of the tier system in allowing fisheries managers to identify research needs and efficiently allocate limited resources toward those areas that will result in the greatest improvement to bycatch data and estimation quality.

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Skeletochronological data on growth changes in humerus diameter were used to estimate the age of Hawaiian green seaturtles ranging from 28.7 to 96.0 cm straight carapace length. Two age estimation methods, correction factor and spline integration, were compared, giving age estimates ranging from 4.1 to 34.6 and from 3.3 to 49.4 yr, respectively, for the sample data. Mean growth rates of Hawaiian green seaturtles are 4–5 cm/yr in early juveniles, decline to a relatively constant rate of about 2 cm/yr by age 10 yr, then decline again to less than 1 cm/yr as turtles near age 30 yr. On average, age estimates from the two techniques differed by just a few years for juvenile turtles, but by wider margins for mature turtles. The spline-integration method models the curvilinear relationship between humerus diameter and the width of periosteal growth increments within the humerus, and offers several advantages over the correction-factor approach.

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The quality of raw and processed fishery products depend on several factors like physiological conditions at the time of capture, morphological differences, rigor mortis, species, rate of icing and subsequent storage conditions. Sensory evaluation is still the most reliable method for evaluation of the freshness of raw processed fishery products. Sophisticated methods like Intelectron fish tester, cell fragility technique and chemical and bacteriological methods like estimation of trimethylamine, hypoxanthine, carbonyl compounds, volatile acid and total bacterial count have no doubt been developed for accessing the spoilage in fish products.

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The method of E.V. Borutski was used for determining the production of chironomids, that is, the dynamics of the number and biomass of the larvae were analysed, their death, a calculation of emergence and the number of deposited egg layings was carried out. In addition to the method of Borutski, the authors also calculated the seasonal dynamics of the number of larvae of the younger age stages in the microbenthos.

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We evaluated the use of strip-transect survey methods for manatees through a series of replicate aerial surveys in the Banana River, Brevard County, Florida, during summer 1993 and summer 1994. Transect methods sample a representative portion of the total study area, thus allowing for statistical extrapolation to the total area. Other advantages of transect methods are less flight time and less cost than total coverage, ease of navigation, and reduced likelihood of double-counting. Our objectives were: (1) to identify visibility biases associated with the transect survey method and to adjust the counts accordingly; (2) to derive a population estimate with known variance for the Banana River during summer; and (3) to evaluate the potential value of this survey method for monitoring trends in manatee population size over time. (51 page document)

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Using data collected simultaneously from a trawl and a hydrophone, we found that temporal and spatial trends in densities of juvenile Atlantic croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) in the Neuse River estuary in North Carolina can be identified by monitoring their sound production. Multivariate analysis of covariance (MA NCOVA) revealed that catch per unit of effort (CPUE) of Atlantic croaker had a significant relationship with the dependent variables of sound level and peak frequency of Atlantic croaker calls. Tests of between-subject correspondence failed to detect relationships between CPUE and either of the call parameters, but statistical power was low. Williamson’s index of spatial overlap indicated that call detection rate (expressed by a 0–3 calling index) was correlated in time and space with Atlantic croaker CPUE. The correspondence between acoustic parameters and trawl catch rates varied by month and by habitat. In general, the calling index had a higher degree of overlap with this species’ density than did the received sound level of their calls. Classification and regression tree analysis identified calling index as the strongest correlate of CPUE. Passive acoustics has the potential to be an inexpensive means of identifying spatial and temporal trends in abundance for soniferous fish species.

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Estimation of individual egg production (realized fecundity) is a key step either to understand the stock and recruit relationship or to carry out fisheries-independent assessment of spawning stock biomass using egg production methods. Many fish are highly fecund and their ovaries may weigh over a kilogram; therefore the work time can be consuming and require large quantities of toxic fixative. Recently it has been shown for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) that image analysis can automate fecundity determination using a power equation that links follicles per gram ovary to the mean vitellogenic follicular diameter (the autodiametric method). In this article we demonstrate the precision of the autodiametric method applied to a range of species with different spawning strategies during maturation and spawning. A new method using a solid displacement pipette to remove quantitative fecundity samples (25, 50, 100, and 200 milligram [mg]) is evaluated, as are the underlying assumptions to effectively fix and subsample the ovary. Finally, we demonstrate the interpretation of dispersed formaldehyde-fixed ovarian samples (whole mounts) to assess the presence of atretic and postovulatory follicles to replace labor intensive histology. These results can be used to estimate down regulation (production of atretic follicles) of fecundity during maturation.

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The age and growth dynamics of the spinner shark (Carcharhinus brevipinna) in the northwest Atlantic Ocean off the southeast United States and in the Gulf of Mexico were examined and four growth models were used to examine variation in the ability to fit size-at-age data. The von Bertalanffy growth model, an alternative equation of the von Bertalanffy growth model with a size-at-birth intercept, the Gompertz growth model, and a logistic model were fitted to sex-specific observed size-at-age data. Considering the statistical criteria (e.g., lowest mean square error [MSE], high coefficient-of-determination, and greatest level of significance) we desired for this study, the logistic model provided the best overall fit to the size-at-age data, whereas the von Bertalanffy growth model gave the worst. For “biological validity,” the von Bertalanffy model for female sharks provided estimates similar to those reported in other studies. However, the von Bertalanffy model was deemed inappropriate for describing the growth of male spinner sharks because estimates of theoretical maximum size (L∞) indicated a size much larger than that observed in the field. However, the growth coefficient (k= 0.14/yr) from the Gompertz model provided an estimate most similar to that reported for other large coastal species. The analysis of growth for spinner shark in the present study demonstrates the importance of fitting alternative models when standard models fit the data poorly or when growth estimates do not appear to be realistic.

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Environmental managers strive to preserve natural resources for future generations but have limited decision-making tools to define ecosystem health. Many programs offer relevant broad-scale, environmental policy information on regional ecosystem health. These programs provide evidence of environmental condition and change, but lack connections between local impacts and direct effects on living resources. To address this need, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Ocean Service (NOAA/NOS) Cooperative Oxford Laboratory (COL), in cooperation with federal, state, and academic partners, implemented an integrated biotic ecosystem assessment on a sub-watershed 14-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUD) scale in Chesapeake Bay. The goals of this effort were to 1) establish a suite of bioindicators that are sensitive to ecosystem change, 2) establish the effects of varying land-use patterns on water quality and the subsequent health of living resources, 3) communicate these findings to local decision-makers, and 4) evaluate the success of management decisions in these systems. To establish indicators, three sub-watersheds were chosen based on statistical analysis of land-use patterns to represent a gradient from developed to agricultural. The Magothy (developed), Corsica (agricultural), and Rhode (reference) Rivers were identified. A random stratified design was developed based on depth (2m contour) and river mile. Sampling approaches were coordinated within this structure to allow for robust system comparisons. The sampling approach was hierarchal, with metrics chosen to represent a range from community to cellular level responses across multiple organisms. This approach allowed for the identification of sub-lethal stressors, and assessment of their impact on the organism and subsequently the population. Fish, crabs, clams, oysters, benthic organisms, and bacteria were targeted, as each occupies a separate ecological niche and may respond dissimilarly to environmental stressors. Particular attention was focused on the use of pathobiology as a tool for assessing environmental condition. By integrating the biotic component with water quality, sediment indices, and land- use information, this holistic evaluation of ecosystem health will provide management entities with information needed to inform local decision-making processes and establish benchmarks for future restoration efforts.