Modelling algal blooms

This is the final report on the research project to develop predictive models to quantify algal blooms in relation to environmental variables. The project's objectives were to develop models simulating the impact of vertical structure and mass transfer upon the dynamics of planktonic algae, including cyanobacteria, in lakes and reservoirs, to assess the potential of sedimentary phosphorus to sustain algal growth following reduction in external loading and to expand and enhance formulations to predict behaviour of blue-green algal populations and to incorporate these into a model software package. As part of the project a strategy for the production of a user-friendly packaging for the modelling software PROTEC-2 adaptable to particular sites was developed.

Prediction of mesophotic coral distributions in the Au‘au Channel, Hawaii

The primary objective of this study was to predict the distribution of mesophotic hard corals in the Au‘au Channel in the Main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). Mesophotic hard corals are light-dependent corals adapted to the low light conditions at approximately 30 to 150 m in depth. Several physical factors potentially influence their spatial distribution, including aragonite saturation, alkalinity, pH, currents, water temperature, hard substrate availability and the availability of light at depth. Mesophotic corals and mesophotic coral ecosystems (MCEs) have increasingly been the subject of scientific study because they are being threatened by a growing number of anthropogenic stressors. They are the focus of this spatial modeling effort because the Hawaiian Islands Humpback Whale National Marine Sanctuary (HIHWNMS) is exploring the expansion of its scope—beyond the protection of the North Pacific Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae)—to include the conservation and management of these ecosystem components. The present study helps to address this need by examining the distribution of mesophotic corals in the Au‘au Channel region. This area is located between the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, and includes parts of the Kealaikahiki, Alalākeiki and Kalohi Channels. It is unique, not only in terms of its geology, but also in terms of its physical oceanography and local weather patterns. Several physical conditions make it an ideal place for mesophotic hard corals, including consistently good water quality and clarity because it is flushed by tidal currents semi-diurnally; it has low amounts of rainfall and sediment run-off from the nearby land; and it is largely protected from seasonally strong wind and wave energy. Combined, these oceanographic and weather conditions create patches of comparatively warm, calm, clear waters that remain relatively stable through time. Freely available Maximum Entropy modeling software (MaxEnt 3.3.3e) was used to create four separate maps of predicted habitat suitability for: (1) all mesophotic hard corals combined, (2) Leptoseris, (3) Montipora and (4) Porites genera. MaxEnt works by analyzing the distribution of environmental variables where species are present, so it can find other areas that meet all of the same environmental constraints. Several steps (Figure 0.1) were required to produce and validate four ensemble predictive models (i.e., models with 10 replicates each). Approximately 2,000 georeferenced records containing information about mesophotic coral occurrence and 34 environmental predictors describing the seafloor’s depth, vertical structure, available light, surface temperature, currents and distance from shoreline at three spatial scales were used to train MaxEnt. Fifty percent of the 1,989 records were randomly chosen and set aside to assess each model replicate’s performance using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under the Curve (AUC) values. An additional 1,646 records were also randomly chosen and set aside to independently assess the predictive accuracy of the four ensemble models. Suitability thresholds for these models (denoting where corals were predicted to be present/absent) were chosen by finding where the maximum number of correctly predicted presence and absence records intersected on each ROC curve. Permutation importance and jackknife analysis were used to quantify the contribution of each environmental variable to the four ensemble models.

The characteristics of distribution and change of the seawater temperature and salinity of Cai river estuary and Northern Part of Nha Trang bay in the dry and rainy season

In this paper, some results of analyzing the hydrographic characteristics of the seawater temperature and salinity are presented. The received results showed that: in dry season, the influence of the Cai river water has is limited in Cai river estuary with the approximate transferable distance from the river mouth to the open sea of about 1 km. The isohaline 32%o could be defined as the separate boundary of the Cai river water; In rainy season, due to the river water discharges are high, the influence of Cai river water could be transferred to the open sea and island areas. The immerge of the Cai river water in the open sea areas in rainy season has changed the vertical structure of salinity and temperature in the northern part of Nhatrang bay. In both seasons, the Cai river water have influenced in the surface water layers 0 - 2m and the water layers deeper than 2m are influenced by the sea waters with the salinity of higher than 32%o.

Vertical temperature structure of 250 m. water layer around Sri Lanka at the tail-end of the north-east monsoon

Data collected during cruises of the Hoyo Maru in Jan-Mar 1975 are analysed. Data is tabulated to show vertical temp profile, surface water temp and temp gradient. Each of these features is discussed. Thermoclines are shown to be established off the coast of India, their depth varying according to time of year. Upwelling off the Cochin coast is discussed. This occurs during Oct-Nov. Surface temp is considerably influenced by the north-east monsoon. The 'clockwise current' (or 'transparent current) characterised by high salinity, high transparency, and rich nutrient conchs, and which prevails in Jan-May brings oceanic water into the Bay of Bengal and sweeps along the Ceylon coast.

Diel variation in vertical distribution of an offshore ichthyoplankton community off the Oregon coast

We examined the diel ver-tical distribution, concentration, and community structure of ichthyoplank-ton from a single station 69 km off the central Oregon coast in the northeast Pacific Ocean. The 74 depth-stratified samples yielded 1571 fish larvae from 20 taxa, representing 11 families, and 128 fish eggs from 11 taxa within nine families. Dominant larval taxa were Sebastes spp. (rockfishes), Stenobra-chius leucopsarus (northern lampfish), Tarletonbeania crenularis (blue lan-ternfish), and Lyopsetta exilis (slender sole), and the dominant egg taxa were Sardinops sagax (Pacific sardine), Icichthys lockingtoni (medusafish), and Chauliodus macouni (Pacific viperfish). Larval concentrations generally increased from the surface to 50 m, then decreased with depth. Larval concentrations were higher at night than during the day, and there was evidence of larval diel vertical migration. Depth stratum was the most important factor explaining variability in larval and egg concentrations.