Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Some aspects of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama

ENGLISH: Strong coastal upwelling occurs in the Gulf of Panama regularly each year during the season, from about January through April, when strong northerly winds are blowing offshore. Because of the evident importance of upwelling to the ecology of the Gulf of Panama, we commenced in the fall of 1954 a study of various physical, chemical, and biological phenomena associated therewith. Observations were taken at bi-weekly intervals at a fixed location in the Gulf (approximately 10 miles SE of Taboga Island) to supplement the serial observations of sea level, sea temperature, and winds that have been gathered for many years by the Panama Canal Company. SPANISH: Cado año, en la estación de enero a abril, cuando los vientos del norte soplan vigorosamente frente a la costa, ocurre en el Golfo de Panamá un fuerte afloramiento costanero. Se cree que este afloramiento periódico en el Golfo de Panamá es responsable de la alta productividad biológica que sostiene considerables cantidades de organismos de importancia comercial. Esta región, por ejemplo, es una fuente importante de la especie Cetengraulis mysticetus) pez de carnada para el atún, (Alverson y Shimada, 1957) y mantiene una considerable pesca de camarones llamados langostinos (Burkenroad, Obarrio y Mendoza,1955). (PDF contains 54 pages.)

Effects of flow regime on the young stages of Salmonid fishes. Conclusions based on results for 1977-1981

Rivers in Teesdale and its fish population have been monitored for several years. This report briefly describes the life cycle of British salmonid fishes and indicates the main ways in which this life cycle is influenced by discharge and related effects. Some highlights of the research results for 1977 - 1981 are briefly stated and proposals for future research are listed. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Effects of flow regime on the young stages of salmonid fishes. Summary and conclusions based on results for 1981-1985

The main British salmonid species spawn in clean gravel in streams and rivers, many of them in the upland areas of Britain. The earliest stages of the life cycle (eggs and alevins) spend some months within the gravel of the river bed. During this period their survival rate can be strongly influenced by flow regime and by related phenomena such as movement of coarse river bed material, changes in water level and the deposition of silt. In recent years human influence upon the flow regimes of upland water courses and upon the sediment inputs to them has increased. In order to conserve and, if possible, enhance the populations of salmonid fishes a deeper understanding of the interrelationships between survival of young salmonids and flow-related phenomena is needed. The acquisition of appropriate information is the main aim of the present project, which included: Studies on silt movement and the infilling of gravel voids by fine sediments, together with initial studies on the relationship between intragravel oxygen supply rate and the survival of intragravel stages of salmonids; studies in the general field of egg washout. The latter investigated the physical background to gravel bed disruption, the examination of the physical characteristics of sites chosen for redds, dimensions of redds and burial depth of eggs relative to the size of the fish constructing the redd and a series of smaller studies on other aspects of egg washout.

Étude quantitative de l'upwelling sur le plateau continental ivorien

A wind-driven upwelling occurs on the continental shelf of Ivory Coast during the northern summer months; by studying the average conditions in the wind field, it has been found that in steady state the vertical speed upwards does not exceed 70 cm per day. The vertical flow per km super(2) is estimated in 46 m super(3)/s for a channel 50 m depth and in 92m super(3)/s for a channel 300 m depth. This study does not include the inclination of isopycnes in geostrophic adjustment with the variations of the Guinea current.

Production primaire, secondaire et régéneration des sels nutritifs dans l'upwelling de Mauritanie

Primary and secondary productions and nutrient regeneration in the Mauritanian upwelling area were studied by following a drogue for 9 days, from the point of upwelling till the water mass dives under offshore waters. The lag between phytoplanktonic bloom, zooplanktonic peak and bacterial activity is very short and may be explained by a well-settled biological cycle connected with an undercurrent. Organic production was estimated in two ways: (1) from chlorophyll 'a' values, considering a C/Chla ratio of 25 during the 5.5 day phytoplankton growth period, primary production computed by this method reaches 13.5 g C/m2; (2) from 14C values net primary production calculated for the same period reaches 10.5 g C/m2 and total organic production (net production + organic excretion) reaches 19.5 g C/m2. Organic production computed ratios, delta O/ delta C/ delta N/ delta Si/ delta P are equal to 130/43/11/7.4/1. Secondary production and 'grazing' are estimated from mesozooplankton respiration values and have a huge increase during the bloom. Net secondary production is assessed to be 1.0-4.2 g C/m2 for 6 days. Evidence of nutrient regeneration as ammonia, phosphate and silicate is given and regeneration rates are calculated. Zooplankton excretion plays an important part in nitrogen and phosphorus regeneration. Bacterial activity is induced by zooplankton organic excretion, then increased by phytoplankton decomposition at the end of the bloom.

Note sur l'évolution des populations de Copépodes pélagiques de l'upwelling mauritanien (mars-avril 1972)

The evolution of a plankton copepod population in the Mauritania upwelling was studied by following a drogue for 9 days, from the point of upwelling till the water-mass dives under offshore waters. The Shannon index of specific diversity and the tropic structure allow separation into several stages in the studied succession. The upwelling brings near the shore a rather poor, highly diverse fauna, with a low filter-feeder rate. The phytoplanktonic development induces an increase in the copepod number. The filter-feeders become dominant and the diversity decreases. When the increase of copepod number stops, the diversity decreases and the omnivore and carnivore rate increases.

Witcherwell hatchery husbandry regime

Witcherwell like most new hatcheries has gone through a honeymoon period during which no major fish health problems have occurred. However, in 1994, there was an outbreak of Bacterial Gill Disease which caused high mortalities. This has emphasised the importance of developing and maintaining optimum husbandry practices for Witcherwell. These may also be applicable to other fish culture units in Central Area and the NW. To avoid the reoccurence of bacterial gill disease or other health problems and to ensure that stock of good health and quality are produced good husbandry practices must be followed. This report inculdes information on stock, disinfection, cross-contamination, cleaning, feed rates, flow rates, screening, treatments and possible problems.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Biodiversity as an index of regime shift in the eastern Bering Sea

Data collected from an annual groundf ish survey of the eastern Bering Sea shelf from 1975 to 2002 were used to estimate biomass and biodiversity indexes for two fish guilds: f latfish and roundfish. Biomass estimates indicated that several species of f latfish (particularly rock sole, arrowtooth flounder, and f lathead sole), several large sculpins (Myoxocephalus spp.), bigmouth (Hemitripterus bolini), and skates (Bathyraja spp.) had increased. Declining species included several f latfish species and many smaller roundfish species of sculpins, eelpouts (Lycodes spp.), and sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria). Biodiversity indexes were calculated by using biomass estimates for both guilds from 1975 through 2002 within three physical domains on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Biodiversity trends were found to be generally declining within the roundfish guild and generally increasing within the f latfish guild and varied between inner, middle, and outer shelf domains. The trends in biodiversity indexes from this study correlated strongly with the regime shift reported for the late 1970s and 1980s.

Fish for the poor under a rising global demand and changing fishery regime

In the past, agricultural researchers tended to ignore the fisheries factor in global food and nutritional security. However, the role of fish is becoming critical as a result of changes in fisheries regimes, income distribution, demand and increasing international trade. Fish has become the fastest growing food commodity in international trade and this is raising concern for the supply of fish for poorer people. As a result, the impact of international trade regimes on fish supply and demand, and the consequences on the availability of fish for developing countries need to be studied. Policies aimed at increasing export earnings are in conflict with those aimed at increasing food security in third world countries. Fisheries policy research will need to focus on three primary areas which have an impact on the marginal and poorer communities of developing countries: increased international demand for low-value fish on the supply of poorer countries; improved aquaculture technologies and productivity on poorer and marginal farmers; and land and water allocation policy on productivity, food security and sustainability across farm, fishery and related sectors. The key to local food security is in the integration of agriculture, aquaculture and natural resources but an important focus on fisheries policy research will be to look at the linkages between societal, economic and natural systems in order to develop adequate and flexible solutions to achieve sustainable use of aquatic resources systems.

Exploring the use of neural networks for biomass forecasts in the Peruvian upwelling ecosystem

A pilot study was conducted to study the ability of an artificial neural network to predict the biomass of Peruvian anchoveta Engraulis ringens, given time series of earlier biomasses, and of environmental parameters (ocenographic data and predator abundances). Acceptable predictions of three months or more appear feasible after thorough scrutiny of the input data set.

A preliminary study on the feeding regime of European pilchard (Sardina pilchardus Walbaum 1792) in Izmir Bay, Turkey, Eastern Aegean Sea

The gut contents of Sardina pilchardus specimens captured in Izmir Bay were examined in order to determine their feeding regimes. Of the 365 stomachs examined, 321 (87.95%) contained food and 44 (12.05%) were empty. Analysis of gut contents verified that S. pilchardus feeds on zooplankton. The most important group in the diet of S. pilchardus was copepods (79.79%). Decapod crustacean larvae (8.17%) and bivalves (3.18%) were second and third, respectively, in order of importance. The application of analysis of variance to monthly data of numerical percentage, weight percentage, frequency of occurrence and index of relative importance indicated that there was no significant difference between months. Oncaea media was the most dominant species for six months of the year. Euterpina acutifrons, Centropages typicus, Calanoida, Oncaea sp. and Corycaeus sp. were the most dominant for March, April, May, September, October and December.

Seasonal marine growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in relation to competition with Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) and the 1977 ocean regime shift

Recent research demonstrated significantly lower growth and survival of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) during odd-numbered years of their second or third years at sea (1975, 1977, etc.), a trend that was opposite that of Asian pink salmon (O. gorbuscha) abundance. Here we evaluated seasonal growth trends of Kvichak and Egegik river sockeye salmon (Bristol Bay stocks) during even- and odd-numbered years at sea by measuring scale circuli increments within each g rowth zone of each major salmon age group between 1955 and 2000. First year scale growth was not significantly different between odd- and even-numbered years, but peak growth of age-2 smolts was significantly higher than age-1. smolts. Total second and third year scale growth of salmon was significantly lower during odd- than during even-numbered years. However, reduced scale growth in odd-numbered years began after peak growth in spring and continued through summer and fall even though most pink salmon had left the high seas by late July (10−18% growth reduction in odd vs. even years). The alternating odd and even year growth pattern was consistent before and after the 1977 ocean reg ime shift. During 1977−2000, when salmon abundance was relatively great, sockeye salmon growth was high during specific seasons compared with that during 1955−1976, that is to say, immediately after entry to Bristol Bay, after peak growth in the first year, during the middle of the second growing season, and during spring of the third season. Growth after the spring peak in the third year at sea was relatively low during 1977−2000. We hypothesize that high consumption rates of prey by pink salmon during spring through mid-July of odd-numbered years, coupled with declining zooplankton biomass during summer and potentially cyclic abundances of squid and other prey, contributed to reduced prey availability and therefore reduced growth of Bristol Bay sockeye salmon during late spring through fall of odd-numbered years.