Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Quantitative composition and distribution of the macrobenthic invertebrate fauna of the Continental Shelf ecosystems of the Northeastern United States

From the mid-1950's to the mid-1960's a series of quantitative surveys of the macrobenthic invertebrate fauna were conducted in the offshore New England region (Maine to Long Island, New York). The surveys were designed to 1) obtain measures of macrobenthic standing crop expressed in terms of density and biomass; 2) determine the taxonomic composition of the fauna (ca. 567 species); 3) map the general features of macrobenthic distribution; and 4) evaluate the fauna's relationships to water depth, bottom type, temperature range, and sediment organic carbon content. A total of 1,076 samples, ranging from 3 to 3,974 m in depth, were obtained and analyzed. The aggregate macrobenthic fauna consists of 44 major taxonomic groups (phyla, classes, orders). A striking fact is that only five of those groups (belonging to four phyla) account for over 80% of both total biomass and number of individuals of the macrobenthos. The five dominant groups are Bivalvia, Annelida, Amphipoda, Echninoidea, and Holothuroidea. Other salient features pertaining to the macrobenthos of the region are the following: substantial differences in quantity exist among different geographic subareas within the region, but with a general trend that both density and biomass increase from northeast to southwest; both density and biomass decrease with increasing depth; the composition of the bottom sediments significantly influences both the kind and quantity of macrobenthic invertebrates, the largest quantities of both measures of abundance occurring in the coarser grained sediments and diminishing with decreasing particle size; areas with marked seasonal changes in water temperature support an abundant and diverse fauna, whereas a uniform temperature regime is associated with a sparse, less diverse fauna; and no detectable trends are evident in the quantitative composition of the macrobenthos in relation to sediment organic carbon content. (PDF file contains 246 pages.)

Drawn to the Sea: Charles Bradford Hudson (1865-1939), Artist, Author, Army Officer, with Special Notice of His Work for the United States Fish Commission and Bureau of Fisheries

The biography of Charles Bradford Hudson that follows this preface had its seeds about 1965 when I (VGS) was casually examining the extensive files of original illustrations of fishes stored in the Division of Fishes, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution. I happened upon the unpublished illustration of a rainbow trout by Hudson and was greatly impressed with its quality. The thought occurred to me then that the artist must have gone on to do more than just illustrate fishes. During the next 20 years I occasionally pawed through those files, which contained the work of numerous artists, who had worked from 1838 to the present. In 1985, I happened to discuss the files with my supervisor, who urged me to produce a museum exhibit of original fish illustrations. This I did, selecting 200 of the illustrations representing 21 artists, including, of course, Hudson. As part of the text for the exhibit, Drawn from the Sea, Art in the Service of Ichthyology, I prepared short biographies of each of the artists. The exhibit, with an available poster, was shown in the Museum for six months, and a reduced version was exhibited in U.S. and Canadian museums during the next 3 years.

History of Whaling and Estimated Kill of Right Whales, Balaena glacialis, in the Northeastern United States, 1620–1924

This study, part of a broader investigation of the history of exploitation of right whales, Balaena glacialis, in the western North Atlantic, emphasizes U.S. shore whaling from Maine to Delaware (from lat. 45°N to 38°30'N) in the period 1620–1924. Our broader study of the entire catch history is intended to provide an empirical basis for assessing past distribution and abundance of this whale population. Shore whaling may have begun at Cape Cod, Mass., in the 1620’s or 1630’s; it was certainly underway there by 1668. Right whale catches in New England waters peaked before 1725, and shore whaling at Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket continued to decline through the rest of the 18th century. Right whales continued to be taken opportunistically in Massachusetts, however, until the early 20th century. They were hunted in Narragansett Bay, R.I., as early as 1662, and desultory whaling continued in Rhode Island until at least 1828. Shore whaling in Connecticut may have begun in the middle 1600’s, continuing there until at least 1718. Long Island shore whaling spanned the period 1650–1924. From its Dutch origins in the 1630’s, a persistent shore whaling enterprise developed in Delaware Bay and along the New Jersey shore. Although this activity was most profi table in New Jersey in the early 1700’s, it continued there until at least the 1820’s. Whaling in all areas of the northeastern United States was seasonal, with most catches in the winter and spring. Historically, right whales appear to have been essentially absent from coastal waters south of Maine during the summer and autumn. Based on documented references to specific whale kills, about 750–950 right whales were taken between Maine and Delaware, from 1620 to 1924. Using production statistics in British customs records, the estimated total secured catch of right whales in New England, New York, and Pennsylvania between 1696 and 1734 was 3,839 whales based on oil and 2,049 based on baleen. After adjusting these totals for hunting loss (loss-rate correction factor = 1.2), we estimate that 4,607 (oil) or 2,459 (baleen) right whales were removed from the stock in this region during the 38-year period 1696–1734. A cumulative catch estimate of the stock’s size in 1724 is 1,100–1,200. Although recent evidence of occurrence and movements suggests that right whales continue to use their traditional migratory corridor along the U.S. east coast, the catch history indicates that this stock was much larger in the 1600’s and early 1700’s than it is today. Right whale hunting in the eastern United States ended by the early 1900’s, and the species has been protected throughout the North Atlantic since the mid 1930’s. Among the possible reasons for the relatively slow stock recovery are: the very small number of whales that survived the whaling era to become founders, a decline in environmental carrying capacity, and, especially in recent decades, mortality from ship strikes and entanglement in fishing gear.

History of the Fisheries of Raritan Bay, New York and New Jersey

Raritan Bay is the body of water bounded by New York and New Jersey and lying immediately south of New York City (Fig. 1). It has close proximity to the most concentrated urban and industrial area in the United States. Its history has been one of extensive multiple use by the surrounding human population. Dating from the precolonial and colonial periods, people have employed many types of gear to catch and gather its once abundant fishes and shellfishes. Its beaches were once popular for sun bathing and swimming, but after the 1940's they were essentially abandoned because the water became too polluted. Another large use has been for pleasure boating and the transit and dockage of merchant, passenger, and military vessels. Channels and basins were dug in the bay, bulkheads and jetties were constructed along its shores, and it was a donor source of sand and gravel for construction projects. It has also been a receptor for large quantities of domestic and industrial wastes and, mainly for this reason, it is one ofthe most deteriorated estuaries in the United States.

Recruitment of larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) to North Carolina and New Jersey estuaries: evidence for larval transport northward along the east coast of the United States

Age, size, abundance, and birthdate distributions were compared for larval Atlantic menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus) collected weekly during their estuarine recruitment seasons in 1989–90, 1990–91, and 1992–93 in lower estuaries near Beaufort, North Carolina, and Tuckerton, New Jersey, to determine the source of these larvae. Larval recruitment in New Jersey extended for 9 months beginning in October but was discontinuous and was punctuated by periods of no catch that were associated with low water temperatures. In North Carolina, recruitment was continuous for 5–6 months beginning in November. Total yearly larval density in North Carolina was higher (15–39×) than in New Jersey for each of the 3 years. Larvae collected in North Carolina generally grew faster than larvae collected in New Jersey and were, on average, older and larger. Birthdate distributions (back-calculated from sagittal otolith ages) overlapped between sites and included many larvae that were spawned in winter. Early spawned (through October) larvae caught in the New Jersey estuary were probably spawned off New Jersey. Larvae spawned later (November–April) and collected in the same estuary were probably from south of Cape Hatteras because only there are winter water temperatures warm enough (≥16°C) to allow spawning and larval development. The percentage contribution of these late-spawned larvae from south of Cape Hatteras were an important, but variable fraction (10% in 1992–93 to 87% in 1989–90) of the total number of larvae recruited to this New Jersey estuary. Thus, this study provides evidence that some B. tyrannus spawned south of Cape Hatteras may reach New Jersey estuarine nurseries.