Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Marine Mammal Strandings in the United States: Proceedings of the Second Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop, Miami, Florida, December 3-5, 1987

Over a decade ago, in August 1977, the First Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop was convened in Athens, Georgia. That workshop, organized by j.R. Geraci and D.J. St. Aubin, not only considered biology and pathology of stranded marine mammals, but it also served as a springboard for the formation of regional marine mammal stranding networks in the United States. The ramifications have been extremely important to the field of marine mammalogy since, for some species, examination or rehabilitation of stranded specimens serves as virtually the only source of information on distribution, anatomy, physiology, reproduction, and pathology. The First Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop led to increased awareness of the marine mammals themselves, as well as the logistic and legal factors associated with effective handling of the animals. A number of individuals indicated that they felt that a Second Marine Mammal Stranding Workshop held prior to the Seventh Biennial Conference on the Biology of Marine Mammals (Miami, Florida; December 1987) would be both timely and productive. Accordingly, we organized the workshop and scheduled it to occur on 3-5 December. Our goals for the workshop were several, including 1) providing descriptions of some research, especially new techniques, regarding stranded marine mammals; 2) providing a forum where scientists could interact and possibly initiate cooperative research activities; 3) presenting information regarding procedures used effectively to handle stranded animals; 4) assessing ways to standardize data and specimen collection, archiving, and retrieval; and 5) providing a forum for assessing accomplishments and status of regional stranding networks to date, as well as for making recommendations regarding future activities of the networks. Nearly 100 individuals representing Federal and State governments, academic institutions, the oceanarium industry, consulting groups, conservation organizations, and the private sector attended the workshop (see Workshop Participants, this volume). (PDF file contains 166 pages.)

National Agricultural Research Organisation. Fisheries Resources Research Institute Annual Report 2000/2001

It is now clear that fisheries resources are among the key assets contributing to the national development objective of poverty eradication through providing food, employment, income and export earnings. It was recently reported in the papers that monthly fish exports had increased by 23% and fetched about US$ 10 Million during the month of November 2001 alone. This value may be underestimated as it is based solely on recorded exports from fish processing factories numbering 12. Although fisheries resources are renewable they can be depleted through unsustainable exploitation. It is therefore important to ensure that there is guided development and management of this asset so that it can continue contributing to the livelihood of the people who depend on it. Therefore, FIRRI contributes to the fisheries sub-sector developmental objective of ensuring increased and sustainable fishery production and utilization by providing information to guide sustainable management of capture fisheries resources and development of aquaculture.

The State of Coral Reef Ecosystems of the United States and Pacific Freely Associated States: 2005

Executive Summary: For over three decades, scientists have been documenting the decline of coral reef ecosystems, amid increasing recognition of their value in supporting high biological diversity and their many benefits to human society. Coral reef ecosystems are recognized for their benefits on many levels, such as supporting economies by nurturing fisheries and providing for recreational and tourism opportunities, providing substances useful for medical purposes, performing essential ecosystem services that protect against coastal erosion, and provid-ing a diversity of other, more intangible contributions to many cultures. In the past decade, the increased awareness regarding coral reefs has prompted action by governmental and non-governmental organizations, including increased funding from the U.S. Congress for conservation of these important ecosystems and creation of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) to coordinate activities and implement conservation measures [Presidential Executive Order 13089]. Numerous partnerships forged among Federal agencies and state, local, non-governmental, academic and private partners support activities that range from basic science to systematic monitoring of ecosystem com-ponents and are conducted by government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and the private sector. This report shares the results of many of these efforts in the framework of a broad assessment of the condition of coral reef ecosystems across 14 U.S. jurisdictions and Pacific Freely Associated States. This report relies heavily on quantitative, spatially-explicit data that has been collected in the recent past and comparisons with historical data, where possible. The success of this effort can be attributed to the dedication of over 160 report contributors who comprised the expert writing teams for each jurisdiction. The content of the report chapters are the result of their considerable collaborative efforts. The writing teams, which were organized by jurisdiction and comprised of experts from numerous research and management institutions, were provided a basic chapter outline and a length limit, but the content of each chapter was left entirely to their discretion. Each jurisdictional chapter in the report is structured to: 1) describe how each of the primary threats identified in the National Coral Reef Action Strategy (NCRAS) has manifested in the jurisdiction; 2) introduce ongoing monitoring and assessment activities relative to three major categories of inquiry – water quality, benthic habitats, and associated biological communities – and provide summary results in a data-rich format; and 3) highlight recent management activities that promote conservation of coral reef ecosystems.

National Marine Fisheries Service Habitat Conservation Efforts in the Southeastern United States for 1988

Dataq uantifying the area of habitat affected by Federal programs that regulate development in coastal zones of the southeastern United States are provided for 1988. The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) made recommendations on 3,935 proposals requiring Federal permits or licenses to alter wetlands. A survey of 977 of these activities revealed that 359,876 acres of wetlands that support fishery resources under NMFS purview were proposed for some type of alteration or manipulation. Almost 95 percent of this acreage was for impounding andl/or manipulation of water levels in Louisiana marshes. The NMFS did not object to alteration of 173,284 acres and recommended the conservation of 186,592 acres. To offset habitat losses, 1,827 acres of mitigation were recommended by the NMFS or proposed by applicants and/or the Corps of Engineers (COE). From 1981 to 1988 the NMFS has provided in depth analyses on 8,385 projects proposing the alteration of at least 656,377 acres of wetlands. A follow-up survey on the disposition of 339 permits handled by the COE during 1988 revealed that the COE accepted NMFS recommendations on 68 percent. On a permit-by-permit basis, 13 percent of NMFS recommendations were partially accepted, 17 percent were completely rejected, and 2 percent were withdrawn. The permit requests tracked by the NMFS proposed the alteration of 2,674 acres of wetlands. The COE issued permits to alter 847 acres or 32 percent of the amount proposed.

Spatial coherence and persistence in annual streamflow in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Four broad regions of the western United States within which annual streamflows exhibit strong spatial coherence are identified using principal component analysis with a varimax rotation. Geographically, the four regions encompass the Pacific Northwest, Far West-Great Basin, Central Rockies-High Plains, and Northern Great Plains. These regions are really consistent with previously documented, descriptively derived streamflow regimes as well as with general atmospheric circulation and precipitation modes of variation. Collectively, the four regional components account for nearly 63 percent of the total annual variation in western U.S. streamflow. The time history of most principal component patterns exhibit little or no persistence.

A tree-ring perspective on the extreme wetness of the early 1900’s in the western United States [abstract]

Ring-width indices from 136 sites in the area from northern Montana to southern New Mexico between latitudes 103°W and 111°W were examined to infer periods of anomalous wetness for the years 1700-1964. Sites were grouped into north, central and south regions, and the gross regional tree-ring fluctuations were compared. The results indicate that the period 1905-1917 was unique in the 265-year record for the combined magnitude, duration, and north/south coherence of the growth anomaly of much lesser magnitude occurred in the 1830's-1840's [sic]. Both this and the 1905-1917 anomaly appear from time-series plots to be manifestations of low-frequency growth variations at wave lengths between about 20 and 60 years.

Annual stream flow variability over the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The variability of mean annual streamflow over the western United States is described and related to indices of large scale atmospheric circulation over the Pacific Ocean and western U.S. Principal component analysis reveal [sic] four statistically significant modes of streamflow variability across the region.

A preliminary description of climatology in the western United States

We describe the climatology of the western United States as seen from two 1-month perspectives, January and July 1988, of the National Meteorological Center large-scale global analysis, the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), and various station observation sets. An advantage of the NMC analysis and the RAMS is that they provide a continuous field interpolation of the meteorological variables. It is more difficult to describe spatial meteorological fields from the available sparse station networks. We assess accuracy of the NMC analysis and RAMS by finding differences between the analysis, the model, and station values at the stations. From these comparisons, we find that RAMS has much more well-developed mesoscale circulation, especially in the surface wind field. However, RAMS climatological and transient fields do not appear to be substantially closer than the larger-scale analysis to the station observations. The RAMS model does provide other meteorological variables, such as precipitation, which are not readily available from the archives of the global analysis. Thus, RAMS could, at the least, be a tool to augment the NMC large-scale analyses.

Technology and success in restoration, creation, and enhancement of Spartina afferniflora marshes in the United States. Vol. 1: Executive Summary and Annotated Bibliography

Extensive losses of coastal wetlands in the United States caused by sea-level rise, land subsidence, erosion, and coastal development have increased hterest in the creation of salt marshes within estuaries. Smooth cordgrass Spartina altemiflora is the species utilized most for salt marsh creation and restoration throughout the Atlantic and Gulf coasts of the U.S., while S. foliosa and Salicomia virginica are often used in California. Salt marshes have many valuable functions such as protecting shorelines from erosion, stabilizing deposits of dredged material, dampening flood effects, trapping water-born sediments, serving as nutrient reservoirs, acting as tertiary water treatment systems to rid coastal waters of contaminants, serving as nurseries for many juvenile fish and shellfish species, and serving as habitat for various wildlife species (Kusler and Kentula 1989). The establishment of vegetation in itself is generally sufficient to provide the functions of erosion control, substrate stabilization, and sediment trapping. The development of other salt marsh functions, however, is more difficult to assess. For example, natural estuarine salt marshes support a wide variety of fish and shellfish, and the abundance of coastal marshes has been correlated with fisheries landings (Turner 1977, Boesch and Turner 1984). Marshes function for aquatic species by providing breeding areas, refuges from predation, and rich feeding grounds (Zimmerman and Minello 1984, Boesch and Turner 1984, Kneib 1984, 1987, Minello and Zimmerman 1991). However, the relative value of created marshes versus that of natural marshes for estuarine animals has been questioned (Carnmen 1976, Race and Christie 1982, Broome 1989, Pacific Estuarine Research Laboratory 1990, LaSalle et al. 1991, Minello and Zimmerman 1992, Zedler 1993). Restoration of all salt marsh functions is necessary to prevent habitat creation and restoration activities from having a negative impact on coastal ecosystems.

Inferences from tree rings on low frequency variations in runoff in the interior western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Low frequency variations in runoff, AD 1700-1964, in the interior western United States are inferred from smoothed tree-ring series averaged over north, central, and south regions. ... Relative locations of peaks and troughs in streamflow, precipitation, temperature, and tree-ring series suggest that annual precipitation and warm season evapotranspiration variations may both be important to low frequency fluctuations in tree growth and in streamflow.

Inter-regional correlation in tree-growth variations in the western United States, 1513-1964, at ENSO, sunspot, and longer frequency bands

Cross-spectral analysis of regional tree-ring data suggests the spatial pattern of correlation between moisture variations in the Sierra Nevada of central California and in other parts of the western United States is frequency dependent. Short wavelengths (2.8 to 10.7 years), perhaps associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, are strongly coherent both to the north (Oregon) and to the south (Southern California). Longer wavelengths (45 to 75 years) are strongly coherent only to the north. Frequency bands corresponding to annual sunspot series were associated with relatively weak patterns of spatial correlation.

A numerical simulation of cool/wet and warm/wet episodes in the western United States

Wintertime precipitation in the mountains of the western United States during a warm or cool period has a pronounced influence on streamflow. During a warm year, streamflow at intermediate elevations responds more immediately to precipitation events; during a cold year, much of the discharge is delayed until the snow melts in spring and summer. Previous efforts at studying these extremes have been hampered by a limited number and length of observational analyses. In this study, we augment this limited observational record by analyzing a simplified general circulation model.

ENSO influences on atmospheric circulation and precipitation in the western United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The influence of ENSO on atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the western United States is presented from two perspectives. First, ENSO-associated circulation patterns over the North Pacific/North America sector were identified using an REOF (rotated empirical orthogonal function) analysis of the 700-mb height field and compositing these for extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation Index. ... Second, we examine the variability of precipitation during the warm and cool phases of ENSO for different locations in the western United States.